Ecuadorian shrimp at 2.4 dollars at pond harvest: Vietnamese managers fight with processing and large size

The third installment of the series Unpacking the Ecuadorian Shrimp Miracle, run on September 24, 2026, by Nông nghiệp và Môi trường, the organ paper of Vietnam's Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, is the installment that named, from the mouth of a company executive, which segment Vietnam's shrimp industry should compete in. The speaker is Tran Quang Duy, CEO and founder of Than Vuong Co., Ltd. (Công ty TNHH Thần Vương). He drew a line, saying Vietnam cannot beat Ecuador on the mat of selling mid-size whole vannamei at 40-60 per kg cheaply, and said it should concentrate its front on deep processing and large sizes. For Japanese processed-goods buyers, it lets them read in advance which segment the Vietnamese supply side wants to grow.

Duy's account includes a longhand cost calculation using feed prices and the feed conversion ratio (FCR). Below, we cross-check the source article, the second installment of the same series, and the customs tally that VASEP (the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers) released on September 23. Yen and dong conversions are not in the original; this article calculated using US$1 = ¥158.85 (derived from the European Central Bank reference rate, September 24) and US$1 = VND 25,800 (Vietcombank's telegraphic buying rate, morning of September 25). The ratio of feed cost to pond-side price discussed below is also this article's longhand calculation. tỷ is one billion, triệu is one million.

Why Vietnam does not take on Ecuador's US$2.4 pond-side price head-on

According to the second installment, in recovering from the blow of white spot disease, Ecuador swung the opposite way from Asia. It switched to a design of coexisting with rather than eradicating the pathogen, and dropped stocking density to about one-tenth of Asia's. It selected seed stock from individuals that survived white spot disease and phased out antibiotics.

The segment that ships whole vannamei at 40-60 per kg

What Duy cited as Ecuador's strength is the segment that ships mid-size vannamei at 40-60 per kg with head and shell still on. Cycles are short, density is low, and because production units are organized in the hundreds to thousands of hectares, a profit remains even at a pond-side price of US$2.4/kg. Grupo Almar from the second installment turns about six cycles a year at roughly 50 days each, nearly twice the speed of India or Vietnam.

The low cost comes not from a single technique but from how the industry is assembled

Duy framed this price as something that comes not from a technique individual farmers can imitate but from the structure of the whole industry. According to the second installment, in Rabobank's Gorjan Nikolik's account, about 95% of the shrimp Ecuador farms survive to shipment. Asia is about 80%, and with productivity per unit area still lower than Thailand's or Indonesia's, the gap shows in survival rates.

Andrés Rivadulla of the feed maker BioMar explains that they pick up the sound of shrimp eating with underwater microphones to judge the point of satiety and adjust the next cycle's feed formula. Feeders dispense feed about every three minutes. The density of input differs from Asian growing areas, which scatter feed twice a day from a boat.

What Duy cited was deep processing and large sizes of 25-30 per kg

Sushi shrimp, breaded, rings, seasoned steamed

The first entry point Duy cited is deep processing. Vietnam has built a position in breaded shrimp (tôm bao bột), shrimp rings, sushi shrimp, and seasoned steamed shrimp. It was only in the past few years that Ecuador moved to strengthen its processing capacity, and the Vietnamese side has experience, labor, and trading relationships with retail chains in Japan, South Korea, and the EU. The more you lean toward deep processing, the less it is decided by the gap in ingredient prices alone, and the more processing capacity, quality, and the ability to meet customer requirements count.

Four segments split across black tiger, mangrove, and rice-combined farming

The other is the path of leaning toward segments Ecuador is not good at. A system that turns short cycles many times suits 40-60 per kg, and aiming for sizes larger than that means changing the very mechanism that runs well. Vietnam, on the other hand, has large vannamei at 25-30 per kg, large black tiger, shrimp raised in mangrove forests, and eco-farmed shrimp combined with rice cultivation. Duy stressed avoiding products where the rival has the advantage in scale and cost and shoring up these. At the same time, the original writes that vannamei (tôm thẻ) will remain Vietnam's mainstay product and continue to account for a large part of output. This is not a story of pulling back from mid-size. The real picture of the supply side is easier to grasp alongside Ca Mau province's Dam Doi 721-ha ASC-certified farming zone when the two are placed side by side.

At feed of VND 40,000 and an FCR of 1.4, the feed cost per kg of shrimp comes to VND 56,000

Duy cited two numbers that farmers can move within the pond. The first is the survival rate. Shrimp feed runs VND 33,000-40,000 per kg (about ¥203-246) and can account for up to 60% of production cost. Since you cannot touch the unit price, how many kilos of feed go into one kilo of shrimp becomes the issue.

Feed cost alone reaches about 90% of Ecuador's pond-side price

In Duy's example, with feed at VND 40,000/kg and an FCR of 1.4, the feed cost alone per kg of shrimp is about VND 56,000 (about ¥345). It does not include pond treatment costs or the extra costs if disease breaks out midway. Converting Ecuador's pond-side price of US$2.4 at VND 25,800 to US$1 gives about VND 61,920, and dividing 56,000 by 61,920 gives 90.4%. Vietnam's feed cost alone is about 90% of the rival's pond-side price. This division is not in the original but is this article's longhand, yet the basis for Duy's view that Vietnam does not compete head-on in mid-size fits in this one line. On the upstream side, the CP aquaculture feed plant that went into operation in Ca Mau province is a clue.

A single lot with residues can wipe out a tariff advantage

The second is clean production records. The United States, the EU, and Japan have tightened residue management, and processing plants also test for antibiotics before purchase. Duy said that a market-side advantage becomes valuable only once the importer's requirements are met, and that a single lot with a residue problem can cancel out a tariff or market-access advantage.

While shipments to the US fell 11.7%, shipments to Japan grew 6.1%

China and Hong Kong at US$1.12 billion, 34.1% of the total

In the Vietnamese customs tally that VASEP released on September 23, shrimp exports in January-August 2026 were US$3.3 billion (3.3 tỷ USD), up 12% year on year, and August alone was US$478.5 million, up 4.2%. By item, vannamei was over US$2 billion, up 7.6%; black tiger (tôm sú) about US$318 million, up 7.4%; and other shrimp US$936.6 million, up 25%, the strongest growth. By market, China and Hong Kong were about US$1.12 billion, up 35.9%, accounting for 34.1% of the total.

The gap with the US narrowed to US$47.6 million

The US, conversely, was US$436.1 million, down 11.7%, and down 12.6% in August alone. The EU was US$355.3 million, down 3.6%, with a deeper drop of 23.5% in August alone. Amid this, Japan came to US$388.5 million, up 6.1%, and the gap with the US narrowed to US$47.6 million (436.1 million minus 388.5 million, this article's calculation). VASEP expressed in its headline that the axis of competition has shifted to efficiency and value. The place to redirect when shipments to the US slow was the example of Godaco moving to the Asian market had already appeared earlier.

Which parts of the spec sheet can Japanese buyers fill in first?

Decide size and type, then choose the plant

If you stand on the premise, following Duy's framing, of not competing on price in mid-size, the Japanese procurement side can narrow down the content of its inquiries first. An inquiry that makes general-purpose, whole 40-60 shrimp compete on price alone does not mesh well. Large vannamei at 25-30 per kg, large black tiger, mangrove- and rice-combined shrimp, and processed goods such as sushi shrimp, breaded, rings, and seasoned steamed overlap with the area the Vietnamese side wants to shore up.

Ask about survival rate and medication records before the quote

Turning Duy's cost build-up inside out fixes two questions to ask before a quote. One is the pond survival rate; in a structure where feed is 60% of cost, the survival rate is directly the swing width of ingredient cost. The other is antibiotic management and how production records are kept. Duy's phrasing, close the processes you can close and take the initiative accordingly, overlaps with the moves of Vietnamese companies bringing feed, equipment, and technique in-house.

Three lines to add to your next quote request

Item to put in the inquiry

See whether it comes back ahead of the price list

The next move the Japanese side can make is simple. Ask the Vietnamese processing plant you are in talks with about the pond survival rate for the most recent three cycles and how it keeps records of pre-purchase antibiotic testing, adding one line each to your next quote request. A plant that returns these two ahead of the price list holds the source of its ingredients in its own hands.

Sources referenced

• Nông nghiệp và Môi trường, 'Bài 3,' September 24
• The same paper, 'Bài 2,' September 22
• VASEP, 'Xuất khẩu tôm 8 tháng 2026,' September 23
• Vietcombank exchange rate (September 25)
• ECB reference exchange rate (September 24)