Vietnamese Cashew's Largest Market Shifts from the US to China; Japan Competes for Its Place in the Buying Order

The destinations for Vietnamese cashews are moving faster than Japanese sourcing staff assume. On October 1, 2026, a business meeting was held in Buenos Aires that directly matched Vietnamese processors with Argentine importers and distributors. Taking the stage were Ngo Manh Khoi, Vietnam's Trade Representative in Argentina, and Nguyen Minh Hoa, vice-chairman of the Vietnam Cashew Association (VINACAS). The move to go open up a new buyer at the edge of South America, and the fact that in the same 2025 the largest market switched from the US to China, are the front and back of a single trend. The issue for Japanese buyers has shifted from the volume they can buy to the order in which they can buy.

To Argentina, over 270 tonnes and about 1.2 million dollars—results the Trade Representative cited at the meeting

The meeting's aim was to put Vietnamese processors and Argentine buyers in the same room and open the mouth of trade. Market expert Agustin Fernandez Rivas explained local distribution and consumption, and the Vietnamese side pitched its processing capacity. Khoi said Vietnam has nurtured a competitive cashew-processing industry.

The results the article shows as statistics are: 2025 processed cashews to Argentina over 270 tonnes, about 1.2 million dollars in value (about 188 million yen). The 1.7-fold growth applies to volume. The outlook that the whole South American cashew market, put at 403 million dollars (about 63.3 billion yen), will grow to 564 million dollars (about 88.5 billion yen) by 2031 was also presented at the meeting. Converted to an annual rate it is just under 6%, more moderate than the assumption that the 11-billion-dollar world market (about 1.727 trillion yen) will grow 7% a year. These are market forecasts shown at the meeting, different in nature from Vietnamese customs' actual figures.

270 tonnes is on the order of a dozen-odd 20-foot containers. For an industry with 5.229 billion dollars in exports, the monetary contribution is next to nothing. Even so, the reason the Trade Representative gathers local importers and introduces them to processors is that he is not going after the money but going to increase trade accounts. This type of meeting is hosted by the trade representative office, with Vietnamese processors presenting their specifications and minimum lots to look for partners. What Japanese buyers should grasp is information on which country's new partner the counterpart's plant is now trying to open an account with, because that reveals where rivals competing for the same plant's slots years ahead will increase from.

5.43 billion dollars and 5.229 billion dollars: the two totals nearly match on per-tonne unit price

Handling the totals requires care. Vietnam's cashew exports shown at the meeting were 5.43 billion dollars in 2025, about 798,000 tonnes in processed goods. Meanwhile, the customs-based results released by Vietnam's Ministry of Agriculture and Environment and VINACAS in January 2026 were 5.229 billion dollars and 766,585 tonnes, and it was this figure that was reported as "exceeding 5 billion dollars for the first time." The volume growth rate is the same for both, up 5.7% year on year.

Converting the difference to unit price changes how it looks. 5.43 billion dollars ÷ 798,000 tonnes is 6,805 dollars per tonne; 5.229 billion dollars ÷ 766,585 tonnes is 6,820 dollars per tonne. The gap is 0.2%, so the unit price is nearly the same. The two totals are not a difference in price but a difference in the range of volume being counted. If citing in internal materials, it is safer to use the customs-based 5.229 billion dollars and 766,585 tonnes, and to set the 5.43 billion dollars apart as the industry-side figure presented at the meeting. Superlative expressions also need separating out. "Exceeding 5 billion dollars for the first time" is the announcement by the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment and VINACAS (it is Dan tri that conveys it as the General Department of Customs' figure); "about 80% world share" and "over 112 countries" are the VINACAS vice-chairman's explanation. They are not figures verified by a third-party body.

For an internal document that produces year-on-year figures, fixing the source to one and noting the other in a footnote is easy to handle. Pasting the figures from the meeting materials as is makes them impossible to reconcile half a year later.

China's 1.115 billion dollars overtakes the US's 975 million dollars, and the Netherlands is third at 495 million dollars

The lineup by market changed in 2025.

China's rise to the top for the first time is based on the announcement by the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment and VINACAS drawn from customs statistics. The US fell to second at 975 million dollars, and the Netherlands came in third at 495 million dollars. Cashews sit in third place among Vietnamese farm goods, behind coffee's 8.9 billion dollars and produce's 8.56 billion dollars.

The switch did not happen from China's growth alone. Exports to the US fell 17% in value over 11 months of 2025. It is a change at the top resulting from China's accumulation and the US's shrinkage overlapping in the same year, and looking at only one side leads to a misread. If exports to the US recover, there is room for the ranking to move again, but building a sourcing plan on the premise of a recovery misses the timing of arrangements.

Within a lineup where China and the US together make up about 40% of export value, Argentina's roughly 1.2 million dollars does not reach even one-thousandth of China's. Even so, the reason the Trade Representative sets up a meeting on the ground is not the size of the money but to increase the number of destinations. What an industry that has experienced a year of the top changing does next is to re-apportion its destinations into a form where the whole does not shake from one country's demand swings, and South America is among the targets of that re-apportionment.

Against 4.5 billion dollars of raw-material imports, 5.229 billion dollars of exports, leaving a surplus of 729 million dollars

The reason this industry chases volume lies in how it holds its raw material. Vietnam imported over 2.9 million tonnes of raw cashew material in 2025, worth 4.5 billion dollars (about 706.5 billion yen). Subtracting from product exports of 5.229 billion dollars leaves a difference of 729 million dollars, matching the announced trade surplus of "over 700 million dollars." The surplus-to-export-value ratio is about 14%. It is a processing-trade type that earns through the shelling and sorting process, a band that thins if the raw-material market moves.

The raw-material unit price can also be produced. 4.5 billion dollars ÷ 2.9 million tonnes is about 1,552 dollars per tonne. Dividing the 766,585 tonnes of shelled goods exported by the 2.9 million tonnes of imported raw material gives 26.4%, but because Vietnam's domestic harvest also enters the plants, the actual yield is lower than this. If one assumes a tonne of product is made from imported raw material alone, the raw-material cost comes to around 5,900 dollars per tonne, leaving a gap of only the 900-dollar range from the product unit price of 6,820 dollars. The actual gap widens by the amount of domestic raw material mixed in, but if you take it as a contest within this band in order of magnitude, the reason plants fixate on volume is explained.

That is why plants cannot stop. To keep equipment and staff running, a partner that regularly takes a consolidated volume is indispensable. The background of China coming out on top in 2025 is also explained by its fit with a volume-taking way of buying. The structure of filling plants with imported raw material no matter how much is planted domestically is not confined to cashews, and with macadamia too, 30 million dollars of imports stand alongside a planted area of over 46,000 ha. Rather than the region's area, confirming the source of the raw material the plant is actually milling works better for a sourcing decision.

To Argentina it is around 4,400 dollars per tonne, not overlapping with the upper grades Japan buys

Dividing the over-270 tonnes and about 1.2 million dollars to Argentina gives about 4,400 dollars per tonne (about 700,000 yen, about 700 yen per kg). Against the overall average of the 6,800-dollar range per tonne, it is at a level of about two-thirds. It is an upper-bound estimate dividing "over" 270 tonnes by an amount "approaching" 1.2 million dollars, and in reality it falls below this. It can be read that what flows to the new destination is not high-unit-price grades. Cashews are divided in grade from whole large kernels to splits, pieces and powder, and the price ranges differ by tier. If what South America's new buyer absorbs is the lower grades, it is not a matter of clashing head-on with the whole-kernel upper grades Japan buys.

That grades are divided itself has room to work in Japan's favor. A plant cannot square its books by selling only the upper grades, and unless it simultaneously has an outlet for the lower grades, its sorting line clogs. If Japan steadily takes the upper grades and South America and emerging markets absorb the lower grades, it meshes as the plant's inventory makeup. Conversely, if buyers of the upper grades increase beyond Japan, here it becomes a scramble.

The one that clashes head-on is China. With an amount of 1.115 billion dollars, it can move both grade and volume all together. In a phase where raw-material intake thins or plant operation gets tight, the order of orders leans toward the larger-volume side. Where Japanese buyers are placed is a position of stepping forward on a different axis instead of lining up on volume. Once one accepts the premise of not being able to win on order size, replacing it with the question of how to make an "order hard to refuse" for the plant produces more moves.

What Japanese buyers can put forward is grade specification and payment terms; they do not line up on volume

There are four materials for negotiation.

• Put out detailed grade and size specifications. If, before ordering, you document the whole-kernel grade, the allowable split ratio, the upper limits on moisture and foreign matter, and even the inspection criteria that tend to cause disputes after arrival, the plant can arrange its yield in advance and route off-spec grades to another destination. It can quote a price without factoring in the unreadable burden of handling claims. the Ba Mai cooperative, which splits pepper into six forms to sell— as it shows, a system for shipping a single raw material in multiple forms already exists on the ground.
• Specify the ratio of splits and pieces yourself. If you put out in advance what percentage of whole-kernel W320 and what percentage of brokens you will take, the plant can set its sorting-line yield and then quote. You come earlier in the order than a buyer who wants only whole kernels.
• Do not specify the raw material's origin. What plants mill is mainly imported African raw material, and insisting on domestic sourcing gets you dropped from the allocation in periods when supply thins. Moving payment forward works better for this industry, which imports 4.5 billion dollars of raw material and then sells the product.
• Keep a slot to take small lots at a high unit price. Even a small quantity for confectionery or prepared foods, at the upper-grade unit price, pushes up the plant's average unit price. Here lies a path to take priority without entering the volume competition.

Of the four, the easiest to work is the combination of payment and term. In an industry where funds cycle in the order of importing 4.5 billion dollars of raw material and then selling the product, the speed of payment holds value rivaling the size of volume. More than negotiating to cut the unit price by 1%, a negotiation that raises the prepayment ratio and rides on a term contract gets a greater priority for the same amount of concession.

Material for corroboration has also been increasing. For EU regulatory compliance, the Vietnamese side has begun to arrange field and shipment ledgers, and Son La province's move to divide 36,000 ha of coffee into three categories and complete the ledgers by December 30 is an example of it. Because cashews rely on imports for most of their raw material, the way of making the ledgers differs, but whether the raw-material supplier and sorting records can be produced can be asked of the plant directly. If you visit, it is worth confirming in advance three things: whether China-bound and Japan-bound goods are taken from the same line, the breakdown of the raw material's source countries, and the destination for off-spec grades.

What Argentina opened was an account for the lower grades. What Japan should defend is the whole-kernel slot, and the one coming to take the same grade is China's 1.115 billion dollars. The partner to whom you bring, written out, which grade at which time on which terms is decided there too.

The yen conversions in the body are calculated at US$1 = ¥157 (the prevailing rate in late September 2026), and 'about' is attached to the converted values.

Sources

• Viet Nam News「Viet Nam targets Argentina to boost cashew exports」
• Bao Chinh phu, "Xuat khau hat dieu lan dau tien vuot 5 ty USD" (amounts by market, raw-material imports, trade surplus)
• Dan tri, "Xuat khau hat dieu lap ky luc 5,2 ty USD, Trung Quoc soan ngoi My" (total 5.229 billion dollars, 766,585 tonnes)
• VINACAS (Vietnam Cashew Association) official site