Vietnam has planted more than 46,000 ha of macadamia. Even so, from January to July 2026 it bought and brought in about US$30 million worth. Exports over the same seven months were just under US$34 million, so the amounts sold and bought are roughly level. The Vietnamese newspaper VnExpress reported this on September 20, citing customs-authority figures for the export breakdown. For Japanese food manufacturers who want to use the nut as an ingredient, it is reason to rethink how they treat the 'planted area' figure in origin materials.
A country that planted 46,000 ha is buying US$30 million worth in seven months
Against just under US$34 million in exports, imports are US$30 million
Macadamia exports for January–July, reported from customs-authority figures, were just under US$34 million. Raw nuts were just under US$18 million, down 11.2% from the same period last year, and processed products just under US$16 million, up 346%. A 346% increase is about 4.5 times the same period last year (back-calculated for this article). At the 158-yen range to the dollar (September 25, 2026), exports are around 5.4 billion yen and imports around 4.8 billion yen.
This US$30 million is not a story of a shortage of nuts for consumers. What is short is the quantity and quality of raw material for processing. A nut-processing company in Ho Chi Minh City is reported to have explained that the more processed-product lines it has, the more it needs raw material of stable quantity and quality, yet domestic supply cannot always meet it.
What fell was raw nuts; what grew was processed products
The reshuffle in which raw nuts fell by a bit over 10% and processed products grew nearly 4.5-fold shows a move to break out of the stage of selling nuts as they are. But the demands on the raw-material side become tougher by a notch. A factory that has installed shelling and roasting equipment cannot make the numbers work unless it brings in a steady volume of same-spec nuts year-round, and the shortfall left by orchards that cannot supply is filled by imports.
The area planted and the area that can bear fruit are different numbers
Grafted trees fruit in the third year, and earn only beyond that
Macadamia is a perennial, not a crop that can be harvested in the year it is planted. According to the view of the Vietnamese Academy of Forest Sciences, grafted seedlings bear fruit from the third year, but reaching high yields and growing the volume takes still more years, it is reported. In the planted-area figure, young orchards that have not yet produced a single nut and mature orchards that produce steadily every year are added together under the same 'ha.'
In Lam Dong province, only 6,600 ha of 16,000 ha have entered the harvest stage
By the figures of the Lam Dong province Department of Agriculture and Environment, macadamia in the province covers roughly 16,000 ha, of which only about 6,600 ha have entered the harvest stage ('business stage' in Vietnamese). Output in 2025 was about 13,700 tonnes, up nearly 50% from the previous year. Divided by the harvest-stage area, that works out to about 2.1 tonnes per ha (calculated for this article; the province's published figure does not indicate at which stage the weight is measured).
Lam Dong province's 16,000 ha accounts for a bit over a third of the national 46,000 ha. Even in a province with this much weight by area, the area actually producing nuts is only about 40%. Whether this ratio is the same nationwide cannot be known from the current reporting, so we avoid back-calculating the nationwide producing area.
Domestic output is 20,000 tonnes of raw nuts, while the world will need 850,000 tonnes by 2030
Domestic output 20,000 tonnes; 3,500–4,000 tonnes imported in 2024
As agricultural-sector statistics, macadamia output in 2025 is projected at a bit over 20,000 tonnes of raw nuts. Meanwhile, in 2024, to feed processing and domestic consumption, 3,500–4,000 tonnes of raw-material nuts were imported from South Africa, Australia and Kenya. In the same 2024, Vietnam's own exports were about 600 tonnes of shelled edible kernel.
A caution is needed here. The 'exports of 600 tonnes' is the weight of kernel (nhân), while the 'imports of 3,500–4,000 tonnes' is the weight of raw material before shelling (hạt thô); the trade stages differ. Dividing the two to write that 'six times as much is imported' would be an error. In internal materials, too, it is better not to line them up in the same table.
The 2030 demand forecast is 220,000 tonnes of kernel, or 850,000 tonnes of raw nuts
As the outlook of Dang Phuc Nguyen, Secretary-General of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, the macadamia the world market will need in 2030 is reported at about 220,000 tonnes of kernel, or about 850,000 tonnes in raw-nut terms. In the ratio between the two, kernel is about 25.9% of raw nuts (calculated for this article).
| Item | Figure | Point in time and source |
|---|---|---|
| National planted area | Over 46,000 ha | Reporting (agricultural-sector statistics) |
| 2025 output | A bit over 20,000 tonnes of raw nuts | Same as above |
| Lam Dong province area / of which harvest stage | About 16,000 ha / about 6,600 ha | Lam Dong province Department of Agriculture and Environment |
| January–July 2026 export value | Just under US$34 million (raw nuts just under US$18 million / processed products just under US$16 million) | Customs |
| January–July 2026 import value | About US$30 million | Reporting (VnExpress) |
The government decision sets exports at US$400 million, while the reported association target is over US$100 million
Decision 344 sets 130,000–150,000 ha and US$400 million in exports by 2030
The originating article conveys, as the Vietnam Macadamia Association's position, a plan to raise the area to 130,000–150,000 ha by 2030 and to aim for over US$100 million in exports of nut products. However, the range of 130,000–150,000 ha is the same figure as the national target in Prime Minister's Decision 344, dated March 15, 2022 (the Macadamia Sustainable Development Scheme). That decision sets, for 2030, processed output of about 130,000 tonnes, export value of about US$400 million, and the share of products shipped still in shell at 40% or less. There is a fourfold gap between the reported 'over US$100 million' and Decision 344's 'about US$400 million.' The same 'over US$100 million' appears in other Vietnamese outlets too, but all are later reprints of this article and do not amount to independent corroboration. Whether the association set a separate target or the figure changed on the reporting side cannot be confirmed. If drawing on it for a plan on the Japanese side, it is safer to use the latter, whose source is the government decision, and to flag the former as reporting-based.
Increase primary processing to 300–400 sites and deep processing to 8 plants
Decision 344 also puts numbers on processing facilities. By 2030, it will refurbish the existing 65 sites and newly build 300–400 primary-processing and processing sites on the scale of 100–200 tonnes of annual output each. On top of that, it will establish about 8 deep-processing plants each handling 10,000–15,000 tonnes of raw nuts a year. All are written in a way meant to encourage investment, not as numbers whose construction has been decided. As for the area allocation, 75,000–95,000 ha go to the Northwest (centered on Dien Bien and Lai Chau), about 45,000 ha to the Central Highlands (centered on Lam Dong, Dak Nong and Kon Tum), and about 10,000 ha elsewhere.
It is a two-tier structure in which primary processing is handled by hundreds of small sites, with deep-processing plants placed at 8 locations beyond them. If a Japanese manufacturer wants the same spec in units of tens of tonnes, the conversation changes depending on whether the counterpart is a primary-processing site on the 300–400 side or a deep-processing plant on the 8 side. An earlier example in the highlands of shifting from primary products toward processed goods can be seen in the Cau Dat organic Arabica that case.
What Japanese buyers check instead of area
Ask not 'how many ha did you plant' but 'how many ha are producing nuts'
Treat the area in origin materials as separate from the area that has entered the harvest stage. In the Lam Dong case, there was a 2.4-fold gap between the two (calculated for this article). These are the five points to confirm early in a negotiation.
- Of the area presented, how many ha have entered the harvest stage
- The average tree age of the orchard, and whether the seedlings are grafted or seed-grown
- Collection results for the past two seasons (actual results, not contracted quantities)
- Who does the drying and shelling (in-house equipment or outsourced)
- Whether there is a practice of blending in imported raw material in months when supply falls short
The last point is directly tied to the US$30 million in imports. Since the factory also uses raw material from South Africa and Australia, if you want to insist on Vietnamese origin, it is best to settle first where in the contract the origin designation will be written. The approach of narrowing the growing area to align the spec is seen in the case in which Thanh Hoa aligned mango specs on 30 ha.
Fix which stage the quoted unit price refers to, first
Unit prices cannot be compared unless the trade stage is aligned. Even the same 'so much per kg' uses a different weight basis depending on whether it is fresh fruit with the husk on, dried in-shell, or shelled kernel. In the ratio of the earlier 220,000 and 850,000 tonnes, there is about a 3.9-fold gap by weight alone (calculated for this article). On top of that ride the costs of drying and shelling. Vietnamese materials sometimes write both husk-on and in-shell as 'hạt tươi' and 'quả tươi,' so the stage is not settled by the word alone.
| Stage | State of the goods | Handover | Points to settle in the quotation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fresh fruit | With the green husk still on | Delivered at the orchard | The time until the husk is removed |
| In-shell | Husk removed and dried, in shell | Delivered at the primary-processing site | Moisture level after drying, size-grading categories |
| Kernel (nhân) | The shelled edible part | Delivered at the deep-processing plant | Grade of the nut, color tone, criteria for judging oxidation |
| Export FOB | Any of the above, shipped | Port of loading | Whether customs and packing costs are included |
Lining up quotations at different stages produces growing areas that look cheaper and ones that look more expensive than they really are. When taking quotes from several companies, the fastest way is to designate one stage and have them resubmit. The choice of factory in a situation where specs cannot be aligned even as volume grows is close to the buyers' moves when the share of Grade-A fruit fell for durian that case.
The checklist to bring to the next negotiation only needs six items
Since domestic supply does not reach processing demand, stable suppliers of raw material are still in short supply for Vietnam's processing companies. Acting only as a buyer puts you on the side fighting over that shortage, but moving to the side that increases producing orchards through contract farming or involvement in drying equipment changes your bargaining power. Decision 344 placing the largest allocation in the Northwest signals that new planting will continue as a premise, and the orchards that grow up there will enter the harvest stage three years from now at the earliest.
If you narrow the action you can take right away to one thing, it is to make a single confirmation sheet to send to candidate suppliers. The area of producing orchards, the average tree age, collection results for the past two seasons, who does the primary processing, whether imported raw material is also used, and the trade stage of the quotation. Just by having them write these six items back in the first email, the inside of the 46,000 ha starts to come into view.
Sources
- VnExpress, 'Why imports continue even with over 46,000 ha,' September 20, 2026
- Nguoi Quan Sat, 'About US$30 million imported,' September 21, 2026
- Nguoi Quan Sat, 'Exports just under US$34 million, processed products surge,' September 21, 2026
- Prime Minister's Decision 344/QD-TTg, Macadamia Sustainable Development Scheme (March 15, 2022)
