Tilapia to Japan up 77% in eight months; what goes to sashimi is a 1.7 kg brackish-water fish

In a tally the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) released on 25 September 2026, tilapia (ca ro phi) exports reached US$90 million cumulatively for January to August, a 43% increase year on year. In the same tally, two lines stand side by side: Japan at US$2 million cumulatively, up 77%, and August alone at US$400,000 (the original text's "400 nghin USD"), up 192%. The amounts are small. Even so, what works for Japanese white-fish buyers is that VASEP writes that "Vietnam's brackish-water tilapia has begun entering Japan's sushi and sashimi category." Its position is shifting from a region that puts out cheap frozen fillets to one that can make raw material fit for raw consumption.

The yen conversion uses US$1 = 158.85 yen(the ECB reference rate for 24 September 2026), worked out by hand. US$90 million equals about 14.3 billion yen.

US$90 million over eight months, but August alone fell below the prior year

VASEP's tally lists cumulative and single-month figures side by side. Mixing them gives the opposite conclusion. The January-to-August cumulative total is US$90 million, up 43%, while August alone is US$11 million (about 1.75 billion yen), down 8%. Seen over the year it is growing, but the most recent month is below the prior year.

The market-by-market lineup leans toward a single country

VASEP says Brazil alone accounts for nearly half of the eight-month cumulative total. By region, CPTPP is US$6 million cumulatively, up 50%, and the EU is US$4 million, up 7%. Pulling CPTPP are Japan and Mexico; the EU, Belgium. The whole Middle East is US$7 million, the same amount as Saudi Arabia alone.

Japan's US$400,000 is a figure where "20% of the cumulative total came in during August"

Against Japan's cumulative US$2 million, August alone was US$400,000. About 20% of the eight months' worth came in during the single month of August. The 192% increase is the flip side of a small base in August of the prior year, and the absolute amount is about 64 million yen. In VASEP's 28 July tally, Japan was about US$1.4 million (about 220 million yen) cumulatively for January to June, up 54%, with June alone about US$200,000.

Reading Brazil's "22.142%" as 22% misreads the production map

The original text writes the cumulative Brazil figure as "44 trieu USD, tang 22.142%." In Vietnamese number notation, the period is the thousands separator and the comma is the decimal point. This is not 22.142% but a 22,142% increase. The same VASEP writes the US tariff as "37,5%" with a comma.

Working it back gives about US$200,000 for the same period last year

US$44 million divided by 222.42 is about US$198,000. This matches VASEP's supplementary explanation that it "reflects a rapid expansion in export scale from a low base in the same period last year." Read as a 22% increase, the same period last year would be on the order of US$36 million, which contradicts the "low base" description.

Fix the Vietnamese digit notation first

Why the US market fell 48% is not visible from the Vietnamese figures alone

Inventory is not falling, and importers are tightening new procurement

US-bound was US$21 million cumulatively, down 48%, with August alone US$2 million, down 72%. VASEP writes that because US purchasing power has not recovered and inventory is at a high level, importers are cautious about new buying.

The tariff on Chinese fillets and the US wholesale price moves are matters at different trade stages

In a separate article VASEP put out on 15 September citing Foodmate, the US import tariff on Chinese tilapia fillets is currently 37.5%, down from 45% the previous year. The breakdown is that 12.5% announced on 24 July was added on top of the 25% of Section 301 applied since 2018, while the earlier IEEPA-based tariff lapsed. This 37.5% is the rate on fillets originating in China, not a figure applied to Vietnamese product. Even with the tariff down, imports did not return: cumulatively through June, US imports of Chinese frozen fillets were 78.57 million pounds (about 35,600 tonnes), down 16%.

The price description in the same article Trading stage should be read separately by stage. At the US wholesale stage, week 35 was roughly flat, and the roughly US$0.05/pound rise in Chinese frozen fillets was the week before. "The 500 to 800 g size in Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan was flat" refers to the price at the stage where raw fish is handed to the processing plant in the production region (week 36). Vietnamese export prices are at yet another stage, and multiplying them together yields nothing meaningful. The originating tally does not give a Vietnamese unit price (US$/kg).

Fish destined for sashimi are over 1.7 kg each, 8 to 9 months, raised in brackish water

Monosex tilapia raised in brackish water on nearly 40 ha of the Can Tho coast

The substance of "entered the sushi and sashimi category" can be made concrete through the single-company case VASEP reported on 24 September. Vietnam Clean Seafood Corporation (Cleanfood) has been continuously shipping sashimi-processing tilapia fillets to Japan since February 2026. According to its chairman and president Vo Van Phuc, nearly 40 ha on the Can Tho coast is devoted to raising monosex tilapia in brackish water. It is a policy based on the judgment that brackish-water fish have flesh that suits the high-price band.

In an explanation VASEP put out on 17 September, brackish-water-farmed fish are said to have firm flesh, a clean, sweet taste, few small bones, and no distinct muddy smell. The same move is happening upstream in breeding, with another company partnering with a British breeding firm to work on the seed stock (Nam Viet breeds tilapia with the UK's Benchmark, building a quality receptacle for white fish）。

The Japanese trading partner carries out pre-harvest inspection pond by pond

Until it was accepted in Japan, building out the process and meeting the importer's requirements took about six months, it is said. The Japanese trading partner inspects the farming zones directly and checks quality pond by pond before harvest. The harvested fish are transported promptly to the plant while kept oxygenated. As conditions for raw-consumption raw material, VASEP lists everything from the farming zone, water quality and raw material through processing, freezing, parasite control, food safety and traceability.

Stopping the muddy smell is water-quality management, and that takes 8 to 9 months

According to Mr. Phuc, sashimi-grade fish are over 1.7 kg each with a farming period of 8 to 9 months. To suppress the muddy and fishy smell and preserve the flesh, water-quality management is especially important, he says. The weight is more than double the 500-to-800-g size that circulates as raw fish in China. Even the same "tilapia" is a different product inside.

On the cost side, feed accounts for about 30% of farming cost, and an on-farm feed plant is scheduled to start operating in about two months. Demand from Japan is large but the company's own output has not caught up with orders, is the company's account of its current state. Within Vietnam too, one major restaurant chain and a five-star hotel group are at the stage of moving toward purchasing. In its 17 September article VASEP cites expert opinion that expansion riding on a fad should be avoided and that seed, feed, technology and production-region scale need to be put in place.

Items Japanese buyers should nail down before an inquiry

Six items to check before taking a quote

The scale of US$2 million for Japan also means, flipped around, that the supply side's slots are not yet filled. The one that entered Japanese food-service first as a white-fish substitute was pangasius (the gap that Vietnamese pangasius opens in Japan's food-service sourcing amid a global white-fish shortage). Tilapia is trying to enter from the raw-consumption use where the unit price can be taken.

Negotiation with a region whose production cannot keep up starts from specifications

If you put quantity first with a partner whose production has not caught up with orders, you end up waiting in line with the terms unsettled. It moves the talk along better to first decide the specifications (body weight, fillet grade, freezing method) and the scope of acceptance inspection, and to carve volume into quarterly units. For a region repurposing shrimp ponds, also ask in advance about the timing that overlaps with the shrimp-side crop. Certification is separate by item; do not assume that an ASC obtained for shrimp works for tilapia (A Vietnamese shrimp-farming cooperative earns ASC certification: a rare passport for sourcing to Japan and the EU）。

From here, for three months, you only need to follow the single-month figure for Japan

Watch whether the US$400,000 level lines up three times

Japan is US$2 million cumulatively, and the companies that can put out raw-consumption grade are also limited. Follow the single-month figure for Japan in VASEP's tilapia column for September to November, and watch only whether the US$400,000 level continues. Unless the August jump lines up for three months, you cannot judge that the region's production has caught on. If it returns to around US$200,000 a month, it is no more than one company's shipping wave.

If they line up, put your spec sheet to a brackish-water tilapia plant

Once three months are in place, it becomes your turn to put your own spec sheet (body weight, fillet weight, freezing method, inspection items) to a plant that handles brackish-water tilapia. What is moving now is a deal at the stage of "the Japanese side coming to see the ponds." There is room for a later-arriving buyer's specifications to get through.

Sources

• VASEP 25 September 2026 (originating article)
• VASEP 2026/9/24（Cleanfood）
• VASEP 17 September 2026 (brackish-water tilapia)
• VASEP 15 September 2026 (Chinese prices and US inventory)
• VASEP 28 July 2026 (Japan, first half)
• USD/JPY rate (ECB, 24 September 2026)