Vietnam's seafood exports have entered a prospect of exceeding US$12 billion for the full year 2026. According to the local economic media outlet Mekong ASEAN, the export value for January through August has already reached about US$8 billion, running at a pace 11.8% above the same period a year earlier. The drivers are shrimp and the whitefish pangasius (ca tra). With the world's whitefish supply thinning and raw-material prices stuck in a high range, the relative competitiveness of pangasius, which can be farmed year-round, has risen, and it is surfacing as a realistic option even in Japan's whitefish procurement for foodservice and private brands.
US$8 billion in eight months, with shrimp and pangasius as the pillars of the breakdown
Looking at the January-to-August breakdown by item, the solidity of seafood as a whole connects directly to the whitefish story. The amounts are all denominated in US dollars, with the source material's units of billion dollars (ty) converted to hundred-million dollars.
| Item / market | January-August export value |
|---|---|
| Seafood, total | About US$8 billion (up 11.8% year on year) |
| Shrimp | US$3.2 billion |
| Pangasius (ca tra) | US$1.5 billion |
| Tuna | US$622.2 million |
| Squid and octopus | US$524 million |
| Crab and crustaceans | US$304.9 million |
| To China and Hong Kong | US$2.03 billion (about 25% of the total) |
| To the United States | US$1.24 billion (roughly flat) |
Shipments to China and Hong Kong accounted for a quarter of the total to become the largest market, while shipments to the United States marked time at about the prior year's level. Pangasius grew to US$1.5 billion, up nearly 10% from the same period a year earlier. The point that total exports are piling up beyond past paces becomes a premise when Japanese buyers consider how to secure raw material.
The world supply of cod and Alaska pollock thins, pushing raw-material prices into record-high territory
Pangasius's tailwind comes not from the demand side but from supply-side circumstances. The world's whitefish raw material — cod in particular and Alaska pollock — had its catch quotas tightened in 2026. The U.S. North Pacific Fishery Management Council set the 2026 catch quota for Gulf of Alaska pollock at about 134,000 tonnes, down 26% year on year. Atlantic cod's world supply fell about 10% to 640,000 tonnes, and the Barents Sea quota dropped to less than half of the prior year.
When quotas shrink, raw material becomes a scramble. Norwegian cod has moved up to around US$12,000 per tonne, and Russian pollock to US$2,500 to 3,000, with natural whitefish prices tracking at record levels. It is a structure in which the raw material that Japan's foodservice and mass retail have used for surimi and whitefish fry is rising in price just as it is. The assessment combining this supply crunch with the growth of Vietnamese pangasius is the surge in Alaska pollock prices and the increase in pangasius exports also organized in an article that followed it.
KBSV positioned pangasius as a low-cost substitute
The securities house KBSV reads this phase as a factor sustaining demand for pangasius. The source material states that "the world supply of high- and mid-grade whitefish such as cod and Alaska pollock is on a slight declining trend, and their prices are holding high," and expects that, as a result, pangasius will continue to be chosen as a low-cost substitute. The reasoning is that, unless the natural-fish quotas recover, the shift driven by the price gap will continue.
Pangasius, being a farmed fish, is not bound by the catch quotas of natural resources. It can be supplied year-round in the Mekong Delta and is easy to standardize into fillet form with bones and skin removed. Against natural whitefish whose raw-material prices swing wildly, it has become a supply source whose outlook is easy to set in both price and quantity.
Japan's foodservice has run substitute fish in whitefish fry
Looking back at where Japan's foodservice has used whitefish, the room for switching comes into view. Whitefish fry in bento and school lunches, fish and chips, fish burgers at fast-food outlets, fried assortments at family restaurants — the species used here have been hoki, hake, and Alaska pollock. Many come in as fillets with bones and skin removed, or as battered processed goods.
Pangasius slips easily into this layer. It is white, with little quirk, its fillet sizes are even, and its appearance is stable when processed into fried dishes or meuniere. It has a track record of adoption by conveyor-belt sushi chains as a white topping and as a raw material for tempura, and the spread of adoption at Japanese foodservice chains is not a matter of individual stores but has settled in as one layer of raw-material procurement. Now that natural whitefish is in a high range, there is room for more foodservice chains to consider substitution at this layer.
Room for adoption widens in private-brand frozen whitefish
In mass retailers' private brands (PB) too, whitefish is a mainstay category. The higher the degree of processing — frozen whitefish fry, seasoned fillets, simmered dishes, fish nuggets — the easier it is to switch the raw-material species. In the layer where consumers choose by price and ease of eating rather than by species name, the product design holds even if the raw material is shifted toward pangasius.
For PB development staff, stability in raw-material prices ties directly to maintaining the shelf price. If the going rate for natural cod and Alaska pollock keeps rising, the decision to review the raw material to hold the same selling price takes on reality. Pangasius is a species that can serve as the receptacle for that review. The move to raise its completeness as a processed product is Vietnam's export strategy of pivoting from mass production to processed products- it overlaps with that too.
In procurement, fix the specification, degree of processing, and origin code first
When incorporating Vietnamese pangasius into Japanese procurement, rather than judging by cheapness of price alone, work is needed to align the specification first. We list the items to confirm.
- Fillet size grades and the weight range per piece
- Glaze (ice coating) ratio and the display of net weight
- Whether CO (carbon monoxide) treatment or bleaching treatment is used
- Degree of processing (fillet, cut, battered, pre-seasoned)
- Whether it is a plant registered for export to Japan, and whether an origin code exists
These tie directly to yield and final cost. If the glaze ratio is high, the net fish flesh decreases, and even if the apparent unit price is cheap, in substance it becomes expensive. The plant's registration status and origin code sway the very possibility of export to Japan. Matching samples against spec sheets at a trade occasion such as VietFish, and comparing multiple plants side by side, reduces failures at the time of switching.
The aftershock of U.S. tariffs thickens supply to Japan
As a supply-side circumstance, changes in the trade environment also bear on Japanese buyers. With anti-dumping tariffs on U.S.-bound goods finalized, a flow has emerged in which part of the volume disadvantaged for the United States heads to the CPTPP zone and Japan. The current figure of U.S.-bound shipments marking time flat is also the flip side of this. Whitefish flowing to Japan as the U.S. tariffs are finalized— seen from the Japanese side, this move connects to an expansion of sourcing room.
That said, tariffs and market allocation move year by year. Although the phase of supply to Japan thickening is expected to continue, treating a single year's figures as a permanent condition leads to misreadings in inventory and contracts. A stance of following export trends quarter by quarter and securing sourcing sources on multiple tracks is needed.
Settle quality variability and origin labeling in advance
There are also issues to crush ahead of switching. First is quality variability. Because the color and texture of fillets differ by plant and by season, confirm stability with multiple rounds of samples, not just the first lot. Second is origin and species labeling: before processing, confirm with the legal and quality departments the rules for labeling when selling it domestically in Japan as pangasius or basa. Third is the exchange rate: since many contracts are denominated in U.S. dollars, factor in that the price advantage erodes in a phase of a weak yen.
These are not reasons to halt the switch but premises for stabilizing it. If you stand on the premise that high natural-whitefish prices will continue, the buyers who clear the confirmation items first will have more freedom to maneuver in securing raw material next term.
From September onward, Japanese buyers' procurement decisions move
Vietnam's 2026 seafood is piling up whitefish exports within a scale of over US$12 billion for the full year. The structure in which the world's cod and Alaska pollock have their supply tightened and stick at high prices is hard to reverse in a single year. For Japan's foodservice and mass retail, the study of reorganizing the raw material of whitefish fry and PB frozen goods with pangasius is gaining reality as one move for maintaining price. First start from comparing samples and spec sheets, confirming registered plants and origin codes, and securing multi-track sourcing, and follow the natural-whitefish going rate and Vietnam's export trends on a quarterly basis. Line up these two side by side, and the material for a switching decision is in place.
Frequently asked questions
What uses is pangasius put to in Japanese foodservice?
It has been used in whitefish fry, fish and chips, fish burgers, tempura, white toppings for conveyor-belt sushi, and the like, as fillets with bones and skin removed or as battered processed goods. With little quirk and even fillet sizes, its appearance stays stable in fried dishes and meuniere.
Why is Vietnamese pangasius more competitive in 2026?
Because the catch quotas for natural whitefish such as cod and Alaska pollock have been tightened worldwide, and raw-material prices are stuck in a record-high range. Pangasius, which can be supplied year-round through farming, makes it easy to set an outlook on price and quantity, and KBSV expects demand to continue for it as a low-cost substitute.
What should be confirmed first in procurement?
The fillet size and weight range, the glaze ratio and net weight, whether CO treatment or bleaching is used, the degree of processing, and whether it is a registered plant able to export to Japan or whether an origin code exists. These tie directly to yield, actual cost, and the possibility of export.
References:
Mekong ASEAN, "Xuat khau thuy san nam 2026 du kien vuot moc 12 ty USD" (September 6, 2026)
Undercurrent News「US regional council slashes 2026 Gulf of Alaska pollock, Pacific cod quotas」
Tradex Foods「Global Seafood Supply Crunch 2026」
