Vietnam's durian exports reached about US$1.8 billion (roughly ¥270 billion, a rough conversion at about ¥150 to US$1) in January-July 2026, up about 30% year on year. Even as volume grows, wholesale prices at the Chinese border have fallen to nearly half for some varieties. This paradox, where the more the volume rises the more the unit price sinks, mirrors the very structure of Vietnamese agriculture: concentration on China alone. For Japanese produce buyers, now, with prices loosening, is the moment to review procurement terms for frozen and processed durian.
This article breaks down why export value and price move in opposite directions, and lays out where market diversification stands with India's opening as the starting point, along with the quality requirements the Japanese side should keep in mind.
US$1.8 billion in exports over seven months, yet border wholesale prices halved
According to Vietnamese customs-based tallies, durian export value in January-July 2026 was about US$1.8 billion, up roughly 30% year on year. Shipments to China, the largest destination, reached US$987.9 million (a rough ¥148.2 billion) in the first half (January-June) alone, and dependence on China continues, with China accounting for roughly 91% of all exports. The amount holds in the record-high range.
Meanwhile, the Chinese-side wholesale price for the mainstay Monthong variety fell from the previous year's 35-45 yuan per 0.5 kg to 20-30 yuan, and in some deals it dropped from 36.5 yuan to 13 yuan. Behind the rising total export value, the local wholesale price that directly determines farmers' take sinks instead. The increase in the total is masking the fall in price.
Three reasons why the price falls as volume rises
Behind the paradox is a rapid expansion on the supply side. Vietnam's durian planted area widened by more than 80%, from about 110,000 ha in 2022 to 198,600 ha by mid-2026. With the planting boom, new trees have begun to bear all at once, and output is projected to reach over 2 million tonnes this year, up from over 1 million tonnes last year.
That the demand outlet is funneled almost entirely to China also weighs in. In a structure where China holds 91% of export value, every time the Chinese side tightens quarantine or squeezes purchasing, fruit with nowhere to go stagnates at the border and wholesale prices collapse at a stroke. Surging planting, doubling output, and China dependence all overlap, producing a market that torments farmers, where the more a year yields, the cheaper it gets. How China's demand structure and Vietnam's output increase have meshed can be seen by following the phase when Chinese buyers flooded into the growing areas it becomes visible when you follow it.
The third is quality variability. When planting swells to nearly double in a few years, fruit from young trees and new growing areas with shallow technique pours into the market all at once. If differences emerge in sugar content, ripeness, and uniformity of appearance, the price gap between upper and lower grades widens and the average unit price is pushed down further. Even as the volume indicator of planted area grows, whether you can earn from exports is determined by the quality content of the grade mix. The more a year's sorting and standardization fail to keep pace with the speed of the output increase, the rougher the market.
Laying out the discrepancy among volume, value, and wholesale price in figures
| Indicator | Previous year / past | 2026 (most recent) |
|---|---|---|
| January-July export value | — (up about 30% year on year) | About US$1.8 billion |
| To China (first half) | — | US$987.9 million (dependence about 91%) |
| Planted area | About 110,000 ha (2022) | 198,600 ha (over +80%) |
| Output | Over 1 million tonnes (last year) | Projected over 2 million tonnes |
| Monthong wholesale price (0.5 kg) | 35-45 yuan | 20-30 yuan (some 36.5 to 13 yuan) |
Source: Vietstock (August 5, 2026). The amount to China and the 91% dependence are for the first half (January-June); the total export value is a January-July tally. Dollar amounts are shown with a rough conversion at about ¥150 to US$1, and yuan prices at about ¥21 to 1 yuan (assuming about 7.1 yuan to US$1). Volume and area are the original tally figures.
Market diversification started moving with India's opening
The way out of this market comes down to broadening demand beyond China. The move advanced a step in mid-July 2026. India officially opened its market to fresh Vietnamese durian, opening a new market on the scale of 1.4 billion people. It is the first partner outside China that can take in fresh fruit in large volumes, and it becomes a starting point for breaking China dependence from the outside. The content of the opening and its impact on growing areas can be followed in the case of India opening its market to fresh Vietnamese durian in July where it is covered in detail.
Another axis of diversification is processing. Fresh fruit is limited in destination by the walls of quarantine and freshness, but turning it into frozen product or paste extends shelf life and lets it reach markets that have no import framework for fresh durian, such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia. Frozen flesh offers high flexibility in storage and transport and can smooth out the risk of the fresh-fruit market collapsing from concentration into a single harvest period. The Vietnamese government, too, is steering toward diversifying varieties and promoting exports of frozen durian and durian paste. The picture in which the fresh-fruit crash and the growth of processed goods coexist is the current in which fresh fruit plunged while frozen expanded its demand.
Market diversification does not advance in a single leap. India may have opened, but it will take time for its volume to substitute for China. For South Korea, Australia, and Southeast Asian countries too, fresh fruit presupposes quarantine agreements and residue-standard negotiations, and the realistic outlet for now leans toward frozen and processed. Rather than turning one China channel into two or three right away, the near-term shape of diversification is a two-tier arrangement: splitting fresh-fruit demand between China and India, and spreading thinly to Japan, South Korea, and Australia with processed goods. For growing areas, the design skill of which grade and form to route to which destination directly determines their take.
For Japanese buyers, cheap now is the entry point for procurement
From here is the point worth reading for the Japanese side. The fall in wholesale prices in China creates inventory and price pressure for growing areas. The more producers and exporters want to diversify their outlets, the more receptive they become to inquiries from outside China. For Japan, this is a phase where negotiating power rises.
For Japan, however, fresh-fruit quarantine is a wall, and the realistic entry point is processed goods such as frozen flesh, paste, and puree. What matters here is building out the quality requirements: growing-area codes and traceability of cultivation history, management of pesticide residues, freezing equipment and a cold chain, and a year-round procurement design that smooths out year-to-year swings in supply volume. Jump in on cheapness alone, and supply will thin out when the market recovers the next year. Now, with prices loosening, is a good opportunity to build a supply foundation through long-term contracts and the combined use of multiple growing areas. The trend of Vietnamese produce as a whole moving beyond fresh is the processing shift in Vietnamese produce that grew to US$3.65 billion in the first half is of a piece with it.
Practical points to confirm before dealing
- Whether the counterpart wants to reduce China dependence: check their spare capacity in frozen and processed production and their track record of shipping outside China.
- Whether they have growing-area codes (cultivation registration) and packing-house registration. For processing bound for Japan, traceability at the ingredient stage is in question.
- Freezing capacity and cold chain: whether quick-freezing equipment and temperature-controlled transport can be secured.
- How to set the price: do not take the low price of the current downturn as a long-term benchmark as is; also nail down the terms for when it returns to a normal year.
- Smoothing supply: do not rely on a single growing area or single harvest period; fill the annual troughs with multiple growing areas and multiple varieties.
Going after the diversification chance behind the low prices
A record-high range in total export value, and a halving of border wholesale prices: Vietnamese durian holds both at once. The causes are the 80% rise in planting, the doubling of output, and the 91% dependence on China. The key to rebuilding the market lies in India's opening and in market diversification through frozen and processed goods. What Japanese buyers should do now is not rush to buy on a sense of value alone, but lock in multi-year, multi-growing-area procurement allocations, with traceability and frozen logistics set as conditions, while prices are loose. The buyer who builds a relationship when it is cheap gets priority allocation when the market recovers.
