On August 12, 2026, the US Department of Commerce (DOC) released the final results of the 21st annual review (POR21, covering August 2023 to July 2024) of anti-dumping duties on frozen pangasius (basa / Vietnamese catfish). Rates jumped three to five times from the preliminary results in February of the same year, and the leading exporters to the US are now all subject to duties of US$0.38 to 1.00 per kg. For companies that had paid US$0 in the previous POR20, the math on US-bound shipments broke overnight.
This decision ricochets directly onto whitefish buyers in Japan, on the other side of the Pacific. Vietnamese fillets that are losing an outlet in the US will be redirected to Japan and Latin America, where CPTPP tariff benefits apply. For Japanese procurement managers, it is time to rework sourcing terms on both supply volume and price negotiation. We look in turn at the confirmed rates and at where the Japanese side should focus now.
NTSF confirmed at US$0.07 to 0.38, more than five times the preliminary rate
The final POR21 rates far exceeded the preliminary values DOC presented in February. Nha Trang Seafood (NTSF, formerly F17) went from a preliminary US$0.07 per kg to US$0.38, an increase of about 440%. Bien Dong Seafood was confirmed from US$0.29 to 1.00 (up about 245%), and Can Tho Seafood (CASEAMEX) and Nam Viet (NAVICO) from US$0.23 to 0.84 (up about 265%). The nationwide rate applied uniformly to companies outside the review was left unchanged at US$2.39 per kg (about ¥354 per kg at roughly ¥148 to the dollar).
On the numbers alone, US$0.38 is one-sixth of the US$2.39 nationwide rate. But set against the fact that the major players paid US$0 in the previous POR20, these confirmed figures rewrite the very cost structure of the US market. Add US$0.4 to 1.0 per kg to the customs-cleared cost of fillets and the thin margins on US-bound sales are wiped out.
| Company | Preliminary (February 2026) | Final (POR21) | Rate of increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nha Trang Seafood (NTSF) | US$0.07/kg | US$0.38/kg | About 440% |
| Bien Dong Seafood | US$0.29/kg | US$1.00/kg | About 245% |
| Can Tho Seafood / Nam Viet | US$0.23/kg | US$0.84/kg | About 265% |
| Nationwide rate (other companies outside the review) | US$2.39/kg (unchanged) | — | |
Rates are DOC published figures. Yen conversions are approximate at roughly ¥148 to the dollar.
A reversal from US$0 last time weakens the case for staying dependent on the US
In POR20 (covering August 2022 to July 2023), the seven major companies under review received a US$0 rate, and Vietnamese fillets were making price inroads into the US market. This reversal weakens exporters' motivation to stay tied to the US. The DOC review repeats every year and swings several-fold between preliminary and final rates, so the difficulty of forecasting prices is another deterrent. On top of that, the US has tightened import inspections, adding to customs-clearance time and cost.
Vietnam's pangasius exports landed at about US$2.2 billion (about ¥325.6 billion) in 2025, up 8% year on year. About 900,000 tonnes flow to nearly 100 countries; the US and China are the two largest markets, while the center of growth has shifted to Brazil, the CPTPP bloc, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. If US tariffs are unpredictable, the decision on where to direct added output becomes clear. When tight pollock supply pushes up whitefish prices across the board, one of those destinations is Japan. The global trend in which the pollock shortage has opened an opportunity for pangasius, seen together, means the retreat from the US actually works to thicken supply bound for Japan.
The CPTPP bloc reaches 17%, Japan takes US$34 million in nine months
In 2025, pangasius exports to the CPTPP bloc (Japan, Canada, Mexico, Chile) rose 35% to US$271.4 million (about ¥40.2 billion), accounting for 17% of total exports. Tariff preferences and demand for sustainable seafood provided the push. Japan alone took US$34 million (about ¥5 billion) in January to September 2025, up 14% year on year. Frozen fillets made up about US$30 million (up 11%), while value-added products rose 47% and fresh, whole, and cut products rose 39% — the more processed the product, the larger the growth.
Vietnamese tra fillets have risen to second place in Japan's whitefish consumption, behind pollock (Alaska pollock) fillets. FAO figures show Japan's import volume grew from about 7,180 tonnes in 2023 to about 12,130 tonnes in 2025. Acceptance in foodservice has advanced, and it is taking hold as a whitefish material for fried and prepared dishes. the story of how pangasius was adopted as Kura Sushi's whitefish and spread to become a staple in Japan also backs up this broadening base.
The negotiating room Japanese whitefish buyers can seize now
The confirmed US rates bring three concrete benefits to Japanese procurement managers. First, supply volume. Plants that cut back on US-bound shipments will raise their allocation to Japan, where payment collection is reliable and CPTPP delivers price competitiveness. The window has opened to drive harder for larger volumes in annual contract negotiations. Second, price. For Japan-bound goods, CPTPP's phased tariff elimination has lowered costs below those of other origins, aligning interests with exporters who want to avoid the US duty burden. Third, choice of quality grade. With value-added exports to Japan growing 47% year on year, buyers can choose contractors not only for primary fillet sourcing but for seasoning and breading as well.
That said, the DOC review moves every year, so the opening left by the US is not permanent. If rates fall in POR22, exporters will shift volume back to the US. What Japanese buyers should arrange now is not one-off spot buying but securing multi-year volume quotas while plants are thinning their US dependence. Vietnam's export strategy of pivoting from mass production to processed products, taken into account, means that locking in the processing stages as a package gives steadier supply than choosing on raw-fillet price alone.
Practical points to settle before sourcing
- Check the rate category: NTSF, Bien Dong, Can Tho, and Nam Viet retain US competitiveness under their individual rates, so their prices tend to stay firm for Japan too. First establish which corporate group your counterpart belongs to.
- Contract form: rather than spot, use multi-year, fixed-volume quotas to secure supply before the US opening closes. Absorb currency and raw-material swings with a price-sliding clause.
- Certification: check each plant's ASC and BAP status and its compliance history with the antibiotic and additive residue standards that Japanese import inspections ask about.
- Specify the processing level: primary fillet, or a seasoned and breaded value-added product. The latter is where Japan-bound growth is largest; estimate unit price and yield separately for each.
- Traceability: verify how origin codes and lot tracking actually operate, not just on paper but against shipment records.
What Japanese whitefish buyers should do now that the duties are confirmed
With POR21 confirmed, the US cost of Vietnamese pangasius jumped three to five times the preliminary level at the major companies, making the reversal from US$0 in POR20 unmistakable. Exporters are redirecting toward the CPTPP bloc, which has reached a 17% share on 35% growth, and within it Japan, up 14% in January to September. For Japanese whitefish buyers, these next few quarters, while plants thin their US dependence, are a prime chance to lock in volume quotas and prices. The next move is to first check a counterpart's rate category, specify ASC/BAP certification and processing level, and then commit to multi-year volume contracts.
Sources
- Vietnam.vn — The US significantly increases anti-dumping duties on Vietnamese pangasius (POR21 final results)
- Vietnam News — US raises anti-dumping duties on Vietnamese pangasius
- VOV — Rising demand boosts potential for Vietnam’s tra fish in Japan
- FAO GLOBEFISH — Brazil and CPTPP markets drive pangasius trade growth
