In the first quarter of 2026 (January–March), Vietnam's rice export volume held steady at 2.3 million tonnes, up 0.2% year on year, while export value fell 7.8% to US$1.1 billion. According to statistics released in April by Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Environment Phung Duc Tien, the average export price was US$480 per tonne, down 8% year on year. Global oversupply and price cuts by India and Thailand are cited as the main causes. The main export destinations were the Philippines, China and African countries (Ghana, Cote d'Ivoire), and shipments in March alone reached 1 million tonnes, with export value of US$516.5 million.
Detailed Q1 rice export data
| Indicator | Q1 2026 | Year on year |
|---|---|---|
| Export volume | 2.3 million tonnes | +0.2% |
| Export value | US$1.1 billion | -7.8% |
| Average export price | US$480/tonne | -8% |
| March export volume | 1 million tonnes | — |
| March export value | US$516.5 million | — |
Although volume has held firm, the fall in unit prices is hitting revenue directly. Vietnamese rice's strengths of "high quality and stable supply" are not necessarily being rewarded on the price front.
Price competition with India and Thailand—what is happening
The biggest factor behind the price decline is the cut in export prices by India and Thailand.
India's moves
India had imposed rice export restrictions in 2023, but from 2025 onward it eased and lifted them, flooding the market with low-priced non-basmati rice. Indian rice is a direct competitor to Vietnamese rice in the African, Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian markets, and India still holds the advantage in price competitiveness.
Thailand's moves
Against the backdrop of a weak baht, Thailand has lowered its export prices and is waging aggressive price competition in markets such as the Philippines and China. Thai rice, once differentiated as a high-quality rice source on a par with Vietnam, is shifting to a price-first strategy even for staple rice.
Structural problems in the African market
For exports to Africa, such as to Ghana and Cote d'Ivoire, rising long-distance transport costs (persistently high fuel costs and ocean freight rates) are squeezing profit margins. The shipping distance from Vietnam to Africa is longer than from India, and a disadvantageous cost structure continues.
Response strategies of the Vietnamese government and industry
Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Environment Phung Duc Tien reaffirmed a "shift from quantity to quality." The concrete directions are the following three points.
- Concentrating on high-quality varieties: Raise the production and export share of high-value varieties, led by ST25 rice (a two-time winner of the World's Best Rice award), to break out of price competition
- Increasing the degree of processing: Accelerate the shift from white rice to value-added processed goods such as rice flour, packaged cooked rice and organic rice
- Market diversification: Promote expansion from dependence on the Philippines and China to higher-priced markets such as the EU, Japan and the Middle East
For rice farmers centered on the Mekong Delta, this price decline is a direct blow to income. Through a "sustainable rice-farming program (the 100-million-hectare plan)" in cooperation with farmers' cooperatives, the government has set out a policy of pursuing cost reductions and quality improvements at the same time. In addition, Vinh Long province's high-tech rice and organic coconut oil production project and other initiatives, agricultural upgrading at the local level is also progressing.
Implications for Japanese companies and importers
1. A window on procurement prices—now is a good time to negotiate
The price level of US$480 per tonne is far lower than during the 2022–2023 spike (over US$600). For Japanese food manufacturers and trading houses, this is a good opportunity to review medium- to long-term procurement contracts for Vietnamese rice (including rice flour and processed rice). High-quality varieties such as ST25 and Jasmine in particular keep a certain distance from low-price-tier competition, allowing a quality-focused procurement strategy to secure an advantage.
2. Attention on the rice-flour market
As gluten-free demand grows in Japan, Vietnamese rice flour is drawing attention as a material that can combine price competitiveness with quality. While white rice exports are exposed to price competition, demand for processed goods such as rice flour and rice noodles has remained firm, and interest in Vietnam as a source of raw materials is rising.
3. A perspective for reading the outlook for export prices
Multiple factors move international rice prices, including the risk of India reactivating its rice export restrictions, movements in the Thai baht, and changes in Africa's food-security policies. There is a possibility that Vietnamese rice export prices will recover toward the latter half of 2026, so it is important to examine the medium- to long-term price outlook under multiple scenarios. For details on Q1 results, see the full report on Q1 2026 agriculture, forestry and fisheries exports and a detailed analysis of the decline in rice export prices should also be referred to.
A structural challenge—is a shift to "value, not price" possible?
Vietnam's rice exports have long secured market share through "volume and low prices," but under pressure from India and Thailand the limits of that strategy have become apparent. The shift "from price to value" championed by the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment is a long-term challenge that farmers, exporters and the government must tackle together.
At the same time, Vietnam's rice production technology and variety improvement are advancing steadily, and the seeds of building a "high-quality Vietnamese rice brand" are growing, as seen in ST25's international acclaim and expanding organic-rice exports to Europe and the United States. Export trends from Q2 onward will be the touchstone for this strategic shift.
