For Vietnamese cashew nut exports, which recorded a record high of 5.5 billion dollars in 2025, a structural turning point is arriving in 2026. The US, which had held the seat of the largest market for more than a decade, retreated to second, and China stood at the top for the first time. Further, in April 2026, with the US applying a 20% tariff to Vietnamese products (with a 90-day grace measure), the Vietnam Cashew Association (Vinacas) is strengthening risk management toward reaching an export target of 800,000 tonnes and about 5 billion dollars. Compounded by geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East market and high raw-material costs, the industry is forced to accelerate market diversification and value addition.
The current state of Vietnamese cashew nuts in figures
| Indicator | Figure | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 export value | 5.5 billion dollars | Record high |
| 2026 export target | About 5 billion dollars | 800,000-tonne target |
| To China (January–February 2026) | About 8,000 tonnes, over 55 million dollars | Volume +15.2%, value +23.7% |
| Middle East market share (2025) | Over 10% of total export value | UAE, Turkey and Saudi Arabia as the main destinations |
| To the US (January–July 2025) | 83,000 tonnes, 561 million dollars | Volume -27.5%, value -11.7% |
| US tariff rate (from April 2026) | 20% | Outside the scope of the 90-day grace measure |
Why China overtook the US
Behind China's emergence as the largest export destination for Vietnamese cashew nuts, several factors overlap.
Demand expansion on the Chinese side
In China, health-conscious snack consumption is surging, centered on urban areas, and the market size for nuts has expanded at an annual rate of over 10% since the 2020s began. Cashew nuts are recognized, along with almonds and walnuts, as one of the "big three health snacks," and individual consumption through e-commerce (EC) platforms is driving the import increase. Exports to China in May 2025 expanded rapidly at +44% in volume and +67% in value year on year, and vigorous growth continued in January–February 2026 too.
Shrinking Vietnamese share in the US market
The US Trump administration's tariff strengthening is affecting Vietnamese farm goods broadly, and cashew nuts are no exception. For the full year 2025, exports to the US recorded double-digit declines in both volume and value. In April 2026 a 20% tariff was formally applied (the 90-day grace measure continues for a set period for Vietnam), and exporters' margins were markedly compressed. Meanwhile, with accelerated exports to China, the industry's overall export value renewed its record high in 2025, so the short-term impact is limited.
Turmoil in the Middle East market — the third risk factor
In the Middle East (UAE, Turkey, Saudi Arabia), which forms the third group of Vietnam's cashew nut export destinations, geopolitical instability is having a serious impact. According to Vinacas vice-chairman Bach Khanh Nhut, many traditional contracts for the Middle East have stalled, and weekly and daily fluctuations in shipping costs make pricing difficult. The Middle East is an important market accounting for over 10% of total export value, and this turmoil has become a major variable for reaching the 2026 target.
The strategies of industry leaders
Vinacas chairman Pham Van Cong, while sounding the alarm that "it is important not to rush to buy high-priced raw materials but to proceed cautiously," has put forward the following directions.
- Strengthening presence in the US and Chinese markets: to offset Middle East risk, expand the customer base in both markets
- Development of deeply processed goods: raising the export ratio of value-added products such as roasted cashews, flavored products, cashew butter and cashew milk
- Stabilizing raw-material sourcing: strengthening price-negotiating power in raw-material imports from Africa (Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Tanzania)
Cao Thuc Uy, CEO of Cao Phat, said that "the US's 0% tariff (currently on some items) is raising the motivation of Vietnamese exporters," calling attention to the fact that the tariff situation differs by item.
Takeaways for Japanese importers and food processors
1. An opportunity to diversify sourcing
As exports to the US and the Middle East become unstable, Vietnamese exporters are seeking stable partners. In sourcing cashew nuts for the Japanese market, room for price negotiation is widening, and it is a good opportunity to conclude medium- to long-term sourcing contracts. For raw cashews for processed foods (confectionery, sweets, snacks) in particular, stable sourcing with clarified quality specifications becomes important.
2. Room for OEM development of value-added cashew products
In the Japanese market, demand is expanding for vegan foods using cashew nuts (cashew butter, cashew cream) and functional snacks. Vietnam's processing facilities are rapidly advancing, and building a system in which Japanese OEM makers develop products in partnership with Vietnamese plants has become realistic.
3. Monitoring US tariff trends
If the 90-day tariff grace measure ends, exports of Vietnamese farm goods to the US could shrink significantly, and redirection to the Japanese and EU markets could accelerate. In this case, an increase in supply to Japan and a fall in prices could occur, so the market trends need to be watched closely. On the overall Q1 export trends of Vietnamese farm goods, the Q1 2026 agriculture, forestry and fishery export results should also be referred to.
The competitive advantage of Vietnam's cashew industry — world share and the outlook
Vietnam is currently the world's largest exporter of cashew kernels (the nut with the shell removed), accounting for about 30–40% of world exports. However, most of the raw material (in-shell) is imported from Africa, giving it a "processing-trade type" structure.
The move by African producing countries (Cote d'Ivoire, Tanzania, Mozambique) to carry out processing and value addition of raw material within their own countries is accelerating, and in the long term there is also a risk that raw-material supply to Vietnam will decrease. To respond to this structural risk, cultivation expansion within Vietnam (Binh Phuoc and Dong Nai provinces) and new-variety development are also being advanced.
As coffee exports maintain their strength (Vietnam coffee export trends see reference), how cashew nuts, too, as a product carrying the core of farm exports, will overcome the geopolitical risks of 2026 draws attention.
