According to the latest data from the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), Vietnam's total seafood exports in the first quarter of 2026 were US$2.62 billion (up 13.3% year on year). Behind seafood becoming the biggest growth engine within total agricultural exports of US$16.69 billion lies a change in the demand structure in the Chinese market.
The biggest surprise: exports to China up 45% year on year
Looking at the market-by-market data, exports to China and Hong Kong rose about 45% year on year to roughly US$764 million, a remarkable growth. In March alone it exceeded US$250 million, accelerating to over 50% growth year on year.
Behind this surge are three structural factors.
Factor 1: Lunar New Year demand and the "premium seafood season"
The 2026 Lunar New Year fell in mid-February, and seafood demand within China from year-end into the New Year concentrated more than usual. Demand for "premium seafood that adorns the table," especially live lobster, shrimp and crab, increased sharply year on year.
Factor 2: Substitution for Canadian lobster supply
The most notable change is in the lobster market. Tariff and supply fluctuations arose in lobster trade with Canada, and China chose Vietnam as an alternative supply source. This "market gap" contributed directly to the surge in exports of Vietnamese lobster. Vietnamese lobster is farmed mainly in south-central provinces such as Khanh Hoa and Phu Yen, and improvements in freshness-maintenance technology are raising its reputation in the Chinese market.
Factor 3: Premium seafood demand from China's middle-income class
With the expansion of China's "middle class (middle-income group)," demand for high-quality imported seafood is increasing structurally. For Vietnamese companies handling high-unit-price items such as live shrimp, live lobster and raw oysters, the Chinese market is becoming the most important market.
Structural change in shrimp exports: China at the center
Dependence on China is rising in Vietnam's shrimp exports as well. In January–February 2026, Chinese imports of shrimp rose about 18% year on year, establishing China as the largest market for Vietnamese shrimp.
The situation for major shrimp items:
- Whiteleg shrimp (vannamei): The largest export item, centered on China and the US. Exports to China are surging
- Black tiger shrimp (giant tiger prawn): High unit price, with much going to Japan and Europe, but demand is stagnant
- Live shrimp and frozen whole shrimp: A short-term surge on Chinese Lunar New Year gift demand
Challenge: exports to the US, Japan and South Korea down about 10%
In contrast to China's strength, other major markets continue to face tough conditions.
US market: down more than 10% year on year
COA certificate requirements under the MMPA (Marine Mammal Protection Act) and anti-dumping duties are acting as a drag. The anti-dumping duty rate on Vietnamese shrimp varies by item and manufacturer, but high rates are eroding competitiveness.
Japanese market: down about 10%
Sluggish consumption and higher import costs due to the weak yen are having an effect. Exports to Japan include many high-unit-price products centered on black tiger shrimp, but demand is stagnant amid consumers' thrift-oriented mindset.
EU market: roughly flat
It is stable but has not become a growth engine. The effects of the EU-Vietnam FTA (EVFTA) continue, but economic stagnation is a limiting factor.
Agribusiness perspective: Vietnamese seafood's export-diversification strategy
In response to this situation, VASEP and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development have set out the following strategic policies.
- Developing the Middle East and Central Asia markets: Exploring expanded exports to the UAE and Saudi Arabia as emerging high-income markets
- Strengthening added value by increasing the degree of processing: Shifting from raw and frozen to ready-cooked and flavored products
- Developing traceability: Making the supply chain transparent to meet the strict standards of the EU and Japan
- Use of agritech: Expanding the adoption of IoT-based aquaculture management and early disease-detection systems
Outlook from Q2 onward: the sustainability of the Chinese market is key
VASEP predicts that China and Hong Kong will remain the largest growth market in Q2 2026 as well. However, it is also a fact that a loss of momentum was seen from March after the Lunar New Year effect faded, so whether the demand is sustained needs to be watched.
A recovery in exports to the US and Japan depends on improvements in the regulatory environment and a recovery in local consumption, and the outlook is that improvement will be difficult in the short term. Across agricultural products as a whole, raising food-safety standards and diversifying export destinations are the priority challenges for 2026.
Reference data: Vietnam Investment Review、official announcements by the Vietnamese government. The latest information on Vietnamese agriculture is vietnam-agri.com continuously updated here.
