According to the first-quarter (January–March) 2026 agriculture, forestry and fishery export statistics released by Vietnam's Ministry of Agriculture and Environment and the National Institute for Agriculture and Rural Development, total export value increased year on year to about 16.69 billion dollars was reached. Even amid the headwind of plunging coffee and rice prices, volume expansion in seafood and produce supported the whole. (Source: Vietnam.vn）
Q1 2026 export results by major item
| Items | Q1 2026 | Year-on-year (value) | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fishery products | 2.62 billion dollars | +13.3% | Exports to China stand out at +58.5% |
| Produce and vegetables | 1.48 billion dollars | +27% | Advancing toward the annual 10-billion-dollar target |
| Rice | 1.11 billion dollars | ▲7.8% | Volume +2.3% but price fell to 480 dollars/t |
| Rubber | 750 million dollars | +2.4% | Output +8% |
| Coffee | (price plunge) | Price down sharply | Volume trending up |
| Total | 16.69 billion dollars | +5.9% | Record-high level |
Seafood is the strongest driver — the Chinese market in explosive +58% growth
The one that produced the most striking result in Q1 2026 was seafood. The 2.62 billion dollars was up 13.3% year on year, and among them exports to the Chinese market grew explosively at +58.5%. Behind this:
- A recovery in demand for high-price seafood amid China's economic recovery phase
- Improvements in export infrastructure and customs procedures between Vietnam and China
- Volume expansion through diversifying into shrimp, pangasius, tilapia and other items
Seafood exports to Japan are also holding firm, with quality improvements in live scampi, crustaceans and processed shrimp being appreciated. Dong Nai province's banana exports following which, the penetration of Vietnamese farm and fishery goods into the Japanese market is accelerating.
Produce and vegetables at +27% — a smooth start toward the annual 10-billion-dollar target
Produce and vegetable export value was 1.48 billion dollars, up 27% year on year. The full-year 2026 target is 10 billion dollars, and Q1's pace is at a level that supports reaching it. Exports to China, Japan, Korea and the EU in particular are rising.
Vietnamese strawberries' export value grew 2,000-fold in two years— achieving this was news of the same period too. The diversification of exports into superfruits and high-value-added vegetables is contributing to lifting produce as a whole.
Coffee and rice take a double punch — struggling with falling prices
Rice: volume up but canceled out by price
Rice exports reached about 2.3 million tonnes in volume, up 2.3% year on year, but the export unit price fell 8% year on year to 480.1 dollars/tonne, making the value 1.11 billion dollars (−7.8%). The Philippines, China and Ghana make up the top three markets.
Coffee: prices plunge, covering with volume
Coffee took a direct hit from a plunge in prices on the world market (a fall in Robusta prices). Volume is maintained, but the sharp drop in unit price is squeezing export value. HAGL's 20,000-ha large-scale coffee farm plan as it shows, for Vietnam's coffee industry a shift to vertical integration and higher value addition, rather than volume expansion, is urgent.
Original analysis: the two major risks facing Vietnam's farm exports
Risk 1: the shift from price dependence to quality and brand dependence is slow
What was exposed in coffee and rice is a commodity structure in which "when prices fall, export value falls." In produce and seafood, moves toward higher quality and branding are already emerging, but in coffee and rice they lag. For the push toward "deep processing" set out in Vietnam's 2026 agricultural government policy to bear fruit will likely take another two or three years.
Risk 2: over-dependence on the Chinese market
Seafood's +58% to China is welcome, but dependence on one country raises geopolitical, regulatory and demand-fluctuation risk. Market diversification through obtaining quality-standard certification for the EU, Japan and the US—including compliance with the EUDR (EU Deforestation Regulation)—is an important challenge for the latter half of 2026.
Summary
Vietnam's agriculture, forestry and fishery exports maintained firm growth in Q1 2026 too. While seafood and produce drive powerfully, coffee and rice carry the structural challenge of falling prices. For Japan in particular, increased exports of high-quality seafood, exotic produce and organic-type goods are expected. Japanese companies considering investment in or sourcing from Vietnamese agriculture need to build their strategy on a precise grasp of the 2026 trends by item.
Sources: Vietnam.vn (April 2026) / VnExpress International
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