Many people are probably wondering, "How has Vietnamese farm produce been changing lately?"
With the weak yen and soaring logistics costs continuing, Vietnam is drawing attention as a sourcing destination. But without a grasp of local policy changes and price trends, you can end up facing unexpected cost increases and sourcing risks.
This article explains the latest trends in detail, centered on 2026 changes to Vietnam's agricultural policy, market prices for major farm products, and export data to Japan.
Main changes to Vietnam's agricultural policy in 2026
Entering 2026, the Vietnamese government is greatly expanding investment in the agricultural sector. In the "Agricultural Structural Transformation Plan 2026-2030" announced by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD), the following three points were set out as priority measures.
- Promoting a shift to high-value-added crops
- Establishing a new subsidy program for smart agriculture technology
- Expanding the scope of mandatory GAP (Good Agricultural Practices) certification
Of particular note is the expansion of mandatory GAP certification. Until now the target was large export-oriented farms, but from July 2026 it has also started to apply to medium-sized farms serving domestic distribution (5 ha or more).
While a growing number of smallholders are leaving farming under the burden of certification costs, the produce of certified farms is gaining greater credibility in the market and is more likely to command a price premium.
Easing of restrictions on foreign investment
Another major change is the easing of restrictions on foreign use of farmland. Under the enforcement decree of the Land Law revised at the end of 2025, the period for which foreign-owned companies can lease land for agricultural purposes was extended from a maximum of 50 years to 70 years.
In response, moves by Japanese trading houses and food makers to set up contract farms are accelerating. Cases using joint-investment schemes with local partners are also increasing, giving a tailwind to Japanese firms aiming for stable sourcing.
2026 market price trends for major farm products
Prices are always in flux, but here we organize the trends for the first half of 2026 (January-March) by crop.
| Crop | Year-on-year vs. the same period in 2025 | Main drivers of price change |
|---|---|---|
| Rice (white rice) | +8% | Rising demand after export restrictions were lifted |
| Coffee (Robusta) | +22% | Reduced supply due to El Nino effects |
| Cashew nuts | -5% | Intensifying competition with India and Cote d'Ivoire |
| Dragon fruit | +12% | Expanded export quota to China |
| Shrimp (whiteleg shrimp) | +15% | Lower disease risk and recovering demand |
The surge in coffee prices stands out in particular. Vietnam is the world's largest producer of Robusta, and the 22% rise directly affects import costs. Food makers that handle canned coffee and instant coffee are rushing to review their contract terms.
As for rice, the export restrictions temporarily tightened in the latter half of 2025 were lifted, so export volume recovered. Prices are rising, but a stable supply continues.
How changes in domestic consumption affect prices
Vietnam's per-capita GDP topped US$4,000 for the first time in 2025. With rising income levels, domestic consumers' food preferences are changing.
Demand for processed and frozen foods is rising, and domestic consumption of raw farm products is increasing too. Because the volume that can be turned to exports is relatively decreasing, upward price pressure is arising for rice, shrimp, and other products.
Export results to Japan: a comparison with 2025
Based on trade statistics data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, we review the export results of major farm products from Vietnam to Japan.
| Items | 2024 (thousand USD) | 2025 (thousand USD) | Year on year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shrimp and processed seafood | 872,000 | 941,000 | +7.9% |
| Coffee | 345,000 | 389,000 | +12.8% |
| Cashew nuts | 198,000 | 201,000 | +1.5% |
| Vegetables and Fruit | 156,000 | 189,000 | +21.2% |
| Rice | 78,000 | 95,000 | +21.8% |
The growth in vegetables, fruit, and rice stands out. Imports of tropical fruits such as bananas, mangoes, and papayas have increased, and there are more chances to see Vietnamese produce on supermarket shelves.
As for rice, against the backdrop of soaring domestic rice prices, interest in Vietnamese jasmine rice and Koshihikari-type varieties is rising. A move toward trial adoption is spreading, led by restaurant chains and bento manufacturers.
Transport costs and lead-time challenges
Even into 2026, supply-chain instability continues. Container freight rates between Vietnam and Japan are up roughly 18% from 2024, affecting cost-of-goods calculations for sourcing.
As a measure to ease congestion at Ho Chi Minh's ports, the Vietnamese government is proceeding with expansion work at Cai Mep-Thi Vai Port, with additional berths scheduled to come online in the first quarter of 2027. In the short term, sourcing plans need to assume higher costs.
Growth items to watch: reading the next trend ahead of time
Alongside grasping the current state of prices and export volumes, reading ahead to which items will grow is also important.
Halal-certified farm products
Vietnam is putting effort into exporting halal farm products to ASEAN countries and the GCC (Gulf states). MARD is expanding its halal-certification support program from fiscal 2026. Sourcing from farms with halal readiness in place is a plus for food makers with their sights on the Middle East and Southeast Asia markets.
Organic vegetables
Against the backdrop of a growing domestic middle class, demand for produce touted as pesticide-free and grown with organic fertilizer is surging. Near Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, dedicated organic cooperatives are increasing, and some farms are obtaining Japan's Organic JAS certification.
As of 2026, the volume of Vietnamese organic vegetables exported to Japan is small, under 3% of the total, but it is maintaining a growth rate of over 30% a year.
Durian
Durian, which achieved explosive growth in exports to China, is also gaining recognition in the Japanese market. In 2025, a major supermarket in Japan began handling Vietnamese frozen durian for the first time, and in 2026 import volume is on a pace of more than double the previous year.
Points sourcing and import managers should check right now
In light of policy changes and price trends, here we summarize items worth checking on the practical side.
Checking GAP certification
Always confirm the GAP certification status of export-oriented farm products with your local suppliers. With the expanded scope of certification, some farms have not kept up with the paperwork.
Considering currency hedging
The Vietnamese dong (VND) fluctuates about 5% against the yen from the start of the year. We recommend confirming whether to set purchase prices in USD or in VND, and considering currency hedging.
Resuming on-site visits
Since the pandemic, some cases have kept contracts going online only. Precisely because policy change is large in 2026, direct on-site visits to local farms and processing facilities are important. Confirming the reality of GAP and halal certification, in particular, is difficult to do except on-site.
Summary
In 2026, major change is occurring in Vietnamese agriculture across three axes: policy, prices, and exports.
- On policy: the expansion of mandatory GAP certification and the extension of foreign land-lease periods
- On prices: rises that vary by item, such as coffee +22% and shrimp +15%
- On exports: strong demand for Japan, with vegetables and fruit +21% and rice +22%
Precisely because the pace of change is fast, continuously catching up on the latest information is what ties together both sourcing-cost control and stable supply.
At VN AGRI, we share the latest information on Vietnamese agriculture.
