On July 24, the U.S. began levying an additional 12.5% tariff on Vietnamese seafood. It is a measure under Section 301 of the Trade Act, and the targets include shrimp and tilapia. Vietnam's shrimp industry is, at the same time, exposed to price competition with Ecuador and India, and this 2.5-point gap could change the flow of exports. For Japanese food buyers and importers too, where the volume blocked from the U.S. route turns ties directly to sourcing decisions. Centering on the analysis the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) published on August 5, we lay out what is happening.
From July 24 the U.S. puts an extra 12.5% on Vietnamese shrimp, and the 2.5-point gap with the Ecuador camp hurts
Following a July 23 presidential memorandum, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) imposed the additional tariff under Section 301 of the Trade Act from 12:01 a.m. Eastern Time on July 24. The targets are some 60 countries and regions, grounded in the U.S. assessment that their import controls on forced-labor goods are insufficient. The add-on rate for Vietnamese seafood is 12.5%.
The problem lies less in the rate itself than in the relative gap with competitors. Ecuador, India, and Indonesia, the main suppliers of whiteleg (vannamei) shrimp, stay at 10%. In a structure where only Vietnam bears a tariff 2.5 points higher, it is put at a disadvantage in frozen and standard-grade shrimp and canned tuna, where it easily becomes a price contest. On the other hand, Thailand, China, Norway, Chile, and Peru are charged the same 12.5% as Vietnam, so Vietnamese shrimp is not pushed back across the board. The gap opens up only when the rival is a low-cost vannamei-producing country.
Not to be overlooked is that this 12.5% is added on top of the existing anti-dumping duty. Vietnamese frozen shrimp has long been subject to an anti-dumping duty, with rates ranging from the low single digits to the low 20s percent depending on the company. Because an individual company's burden piles the Section 301 portion on top of that, the worsening of U.S. profitability bites more than a simple sum of the rates.
First-half U.S. shrimp of US$897.9 million was nearly flat; June's 48% front-loading surge was the turning point
By VASEP's tally, shrimp exports in the first half of 2026 (January–June) totaled US$2.3 billion (about ¥345 billion at US$1 ≈ ¥150), up 13.6% year on year. It is the largest item, making up 40.5% of all seafood exports. Overall it is growing, but the U.S. alone looks different.
First-half shrimp exports to the U.S. were US$897.9 million (about ¥134.7 billion), nearly flat from the same period a year earlier. What stands out is June alone, which jumped to US$195.3 million (about ¥29.3 billion), up 48.3% year on year. It is natural to read this as front-loaded imports, with U.S. buyers building up stock ahead of the July 24 tariff. Conversely, once this brought-forward demand runs its course, a reactionary decline is likely from August on.
| Indicator (first half of 2026) | Amount / growth | Yen conversion (US$1 ≈ ¥150) |
|---|---|---|
| Total shrimp export value | US$2.3 billion (+13.6% year on year) | about ¥345 billion |
| Shrimp exports to the U.S. | US$897.9 million (nearly flat) | about ¥134.7 billion |
| of which June alone | US$195.3 million (+48.3% year on year) | about ¥29.3 billion |
| Shrimp's share of seafood exports | 40.5% | — |
Even looking at the U.S. side's seven-month cumulative, total seafood exports to the U.S. were over US$1.05 billion, up a mere 0.3% year on year — lacking momentum. July alone recovered to US$159 million (about ¥23.9 billion), but this too can be read as an extension of the front-loading. The real weight of the tariff will appear in the second half, when the reworking of contracts gets going in earnest.
Vietnamese shrimp has no choice but to flee to value-added and processed goods; it cannot win on price with raw vannamei
What VASEP cites as Vietnamese shrimp's way out are highly processed ready-to-eat and convenience foods and differentiated product groups. The reason is clear. Processed shrimp that has been peeled or cooked carries the value of substituting for U.S. domestic labor costs and processing equipment, so it more easily absorbs the 2.5-point tariff gap. Conversely, the closer a product is to raw material, like shell-on frozen, the more the price gap between producing areas bites directly, and it flows to Ecuador and India.
Le Hang, VASEP's deputy secretary general, said that Vietnam's medium-to-long-term seafood competitiveness 'is not decided by import tariffs alone but depends increasingly on the capacity for deep processing,' and also raised meeting labor, environmental, and traceability standards as a challenge. As long as this Section 301 is grounded in forced labor, strengthening processing capacity and building out compliance become investment pointing in the same direction. In Vietnam, Decree 292/2026, which sets out a ban on forced labor, is scheduled to take effect on September 5, and moves to fall into step on the institutional side are advancing too. The same thinking that has raised unit prices through integrated value chains and cold chains Vietnamese agriculture success stories is now being asked of shrimp as well.
The Japanese market is 'high unit price but no growth' — a weak yen and stalled consumption narrow the receptacle
When the U.S. route clogs, the first candidate for redirection is Japan. Japan is the third-largest single market for Vietnamese shrimp, making up 13% of shrimp export value. As a market that is highly processed and commands unit price, it suits Vietnam's processed shrimp. The figures, however, lack momentum. Shrimp exports to Japan in the first quarter of 2026 were US$117.4 million (about ¥17.6 billion), up just 1.7% year on year.
Behind this are the weak yen and stalled consumption. Even across all seafood, first-half exports to Japan were US$787.5 million, up 0.7% year on year — in flat territory. July alone was US$144 million (about ¥21.6 billion), up 3.8% year on year, and the seven-month cumulative was up 2.6%, so there are signs of a gentle recovery. Even so, for the Japanese side, whose yen-denominated purchasing capacity has thinned, whether it can swallow a rise in Vietnamese shrimp unit prices as is, is a separate question. If the volume that lost its place in the U.S. turns to Japan, there could be a phase in the short term where the Japanese side's price bargaining power increases.
What Japanese sourcing staff should read is the simultaneous progress of FOB renegotiation and supply realignment
VASEP sees U.S. importers coming to demand, in new contracts, lower FOB prices, sharing of the tariff burden, and shorter contract terms. Under this pressure, Vietnamese exporters hurry to diversify from an all-in focus on the U.S. toward China, the EU, ASEAN, and Japan. It is highly likely that a sorting advances — raw grades to markets with small price gaps, processed grades to the value-added slots of Japan and the U.S.
There are two implications for Japanese importers and buyers. First, if U.S.-bound volume falls, a temporary slack appears in the supply of processed shrimp, widening the room to negotiate terms. Second, how long that supply lasts is hard to read. If the Vietnamese side raises its processing ratio and comes to command unit price, the low-price phase will not last. A sourcing plan is safer built on the structure of which grade a Vietnamese producing area directs to which market, rather than on 'the cheapness of now.' In getting a grip on a producing area's production base, checking a center of farming such as this —the characteristics of the Mekong Delta agricultural zone and, ranking alongside coffee and rice, Vietnam's shrimp production strategy— makes it easier to read the movement of supply in advance.
Until Decree 292 takes effect in September, terms for sourcing to Japan keep wavering
The 12.5% under Section 301 shaves Vietnamese shrimp's U.S. profitability less through the height of the rate itself than through a two-tier setup: the 2.5-point gap with Ecuador and India, and the add-on to the existing anti-dumping duty. The fact that the first half's US$897.9 million to the U.S. was flat and that June saw a 48.3% front-loading foretells a second-half reaction and a reworking of contracts. Vietnam's answer is processing, differentiation, and market diversification, and the strain and the opportunity reach Japan at the same time. Including the move on the compliance side with Decree 292/2026 taking effect on September 5, the sourcing front for Japan needs to brace on the premise that terms will shift on a scale of months.
Sources
- VASEP, 'Thuế mục 301 và bài toán thích ứng của tôm Việt tại thị trường Mỹ' (August 5, 2026)vasep.com.vn
- Vietnam News「Tariff shock from the US increases risks for Việt Nam’s shrimp exports」vietnamnews.vn
- VnEconomy「US imposes 12.5% additional tariff on many export items from Vietnam」en.vneconomy.vn
- Vietnam Investment Review「Vietnam’s seafood exports grow in first seven months」vir.com.vn
- Vietnam.vn「The US Section 301 tariffs are forcing seafood businesses to reposition their export strategies」vietnam.vn
