Squid migration falls below last year across the whole Sea of Japan: will Vietnamese squid and octopus come in instead?

Domestic squid are not being landed. The long-term Sea of Japan Japanese flying squid fishing-conditions forecast published by the Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency on July 31, 2026 put the August-to-December migration volume as 'below the previous year for the Sea of Japan as a whole.' The outlook is that all four sea areas, northern and central Hokkaido, southern Hokkaido and Tsugaru, the northern Honshu Sea of Japan and the western Sea of Japan, fall below the previous year together, with only the offshore area on a par with the previous year. For Japanese buyers handling Vietnamese squid and octopus, this connects directly to the practical matter of where to fill year-end prepared-food and delicacy raw materials.

Japanese flying squid in the Sea of Japan is below the previous year in four areas, with only the offshore on a par

The forecast positions each area's migration volume as a low level since 1981 and divides the 2026 outlook by area. The northern and central Hokkaido area and the southern Hokkaido and Tsugaru area have August to September as the target period, both falling below the previous year. The agency also issued the first Pacific Japanese flying squid long-term fishing-conditions forecast the same day, and on the Pacific side the direction split by area.

Sources are the Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency's Sea of Japan forecast and the first Pacific forecast, both published July 31, 2026.

Northern and central Hokkaido and southern Hokkaido and Tsugaru are described as having almost no current catch

What the forecast text cited as the basis for falling below the previous year is poor survey results and the absence of a catch as of publication. Northern and central Hokkaido is written as 'no current catch, and survey results also poor,' and southern Hokkaido and Tsugaru as 'almost no current catch,' pointing not to a delay in migration but to the lowness of the level itself. This is a main producing area for Japanese flying squid around Hakodate, falling in the stretch where the premise of fresh squid circulating year-round breaks down.

How far the figures of 45% down and about 90% down could be verified

The starting point this time is the daily world-seafood roundup VASEP put out on the morning of September 24. Its seventh item carries Japan's squid catch down 45% in January-July and Hokkaido's July fresh squid down about 90%. VASEP introduces this as the National Federation of Fisheries Cooperative Associations' tally per Minato Shimbun's reporting on the morning of September 24. The relevant Minato Shimbun article is for subscribers and its body could not be opened, and the same tally could not be confirmed as published on the national federation's site either. Although the direction of the figures does not contradict the above forecast, the 45% and 90% are secondary information stacked three layers deep in their source. The basis for judgment should be placed on the primary fishing-conditions forecast side.

Joban-Sanriku migration exceeds the previous year; Hakodate's June landings are 22% of the previous year

The Pacific side is not uniform. The first Pacific forecast predicted that the August-September migration volume for the Joban-Sanriku area would exceed the previous year. In a squid-jigging survey around Sanriku, survey points with high CPUE (catch per squid-jigging machine per hour) were confirmed for the first time in four years since 2021, and in a bottom-trawl survey the research vessel Wakataka Maru conducted in Sendai Bay in June, the distribution density was the highest in the past five years. The reading that domestic squid uniformly vanishes nationwide does not fit this forecast.

May-June landings were 48% of the previous year; Miyagi's bottom trawl was held down by TAC

Even in the same area, the landing figures move separately. The total May-June landings for Joban-Sanriku as a whole stayed at 48% of the previous year. The forecast, however, explicitly states that care is needed regarding the fact that catch-suppressed operations are being carried out, such as setting an upper limit on catch for TAC compliance in Miyagi prefecture's bottom trawl. Because whether the resource thinned and declined or declined through a not-catching operation is mixed in, using landings as a substitute for the resource amount leads to a misreading. In the Tsugaru Strait to southern Hokkaido Pacific area, June landings into Hakodate port by small squid-jigging vessels stayed at 22% of the previous year.

Hokkaido's scallops, too, are projected at 298,200 tonnes, below 300,000 tonnes for the first time in nine years

The thinning of Hokkaido's supply is not only squid. As VASEP reported on September 22 citing seafoodnews, at an autumn trading event the Hokkaido Federation of Fisheries Cooperative Associations held in Tokyo on August 27, it put this season's scallop production outlook at 298,200 tonnes, down 15% year on year. It is the first drop below 300,000 tonnes in nine years, and in the Sea of Okhotsk, now in its main season, small 5S sizes are central and large raw material is limited as in the previous year. When squid and scallops thin in the same period, the procurement for prepared foods and delicacies that use frozen and dried seafood raw material overlaps and jams.

Vietnam's squid and octopus reached US$302 million in five months, with growth leaning toward Asia

Look at the figures on the side that could become the destination. According to VASEP, Vietnam's squid and octopus exports were over US$302 million in January-May 2026, up 17% year on year. The first quarter was US$168.2 million, and the single month of May US$70.7 million, up 20.9% year on year. What made the growth were South Korea, Japan, Thailand and China, while shipments to the United States and the EU declined.

South Korea accounted for US$87 million in four months, 37% of the total

In the January-April breakdown, of US$232 million in export value, South Korea accounted for US$87 million (up 17% year on year), 37%, adding about US$12 million over the same period a year earlier. Japan is the pillar second to South Korea, and VASEP writes that for octopus, South Korea and Japan are base markets, and that for squid there is opportunity in convenient products such as dried, grilled, processed and portioned items. What the Vietnamese side wants to sell is not a replacement for fresh but processed products, and what the Japanese side should look at is yield and specifications.

In August, shipments to the EU fell 32.4%, and the United States added 12.5% under Section 301

It is also worth grasping that the tailwind is not in all directions. Vietnam's seafood exports overall were US$1.14 billion in August (up 6.4%) and over US$8 billion in the eight-month cumulative (up 11.9%). However, August shipments to the EU fell 6.2%, and squid and octopus fell sharply, down 32.4%. For shipments to the United States, a 12.5% Section 301 surcharge has been added to many items since July 24, 2026. The new 7.5% the source roundup touched on is an investigation case under consideration, not an already-applied tariff rate, the original itself cautions. If what is jammed up in the United States and the EU heads to Asia, the Japanese side can stand in a position where it is easier to talk as a buyer.

Three points Japanese raw-material buyers should check at the end of September

Quotes do not align under 'squid,' so work it out from the scientific name and specifications

When the Japanese side says 'squid,' it mostly assumes Japanese flying squid. What comes out of Vietnam is swordtip and spear squid types and cuttlefish types, which differ in both flesh thickness and yield. Unless the scientific name, size notation and processing form (roll, ring, cut, dried) are fixed first, quotes from multiple companies cannot be lined up on the same yardstick. With Vietnamese shellfish, too, it was worked out in the same order (Vietnam's whelk farming reaches 6,200 tonnes a year: can it be used for Japan's shellfish sourcing?）。

Tariff rates and origin documents change by agreement

There are multiple routes for bringing Vietnamese seafood into Japan, including AJCEP, the Japan-Vietnam EPA and CPTPP, and the advantageous agreement and required documents differ by item (There are 384 trade agreements in force worldwide; the tariff on Vietnamese seafood to Japan differs by agreement). The more a rushed order to fill a domestic hole, the more the schedule for obtaining the certificate of origin decides the delivery date.

Even as shelf prices rise, household spending is not increasing

It is not the simple picture that if supply thins, it is replaced by imports. Japan's retail seafood prices and households' seafood spending are not moving in the same direction (Seafood up 9%; households' real seafood spending down 6%, splitting the shelf by item). The source roundup, too, attaches the caveat that Japanese consumers are under food-price pressure and that opportunity depends on species, specification and price. The order becomes: decide the buyer to whom a price increase can be passed, then look for the raw material.

If moving within the year, narrow the trial to one item and one specification

The Sea of Japan below-previous-year forecast runs to December; the peak for the switch decision is October

What the Sea of Japan forecast covers runs to December. To make it in time for year-end prepared foods and delicacies, you need to run sample requests, specification finalization and origin-document preparation within October. Widening the items delays each company's response and makes everything miss the deadline. Narrowing first to one item, either dried squid or precooked cuts, is faster.

Compare unit prices by aligning whether they are ex-processing-plant or export FOB

When you obtain quotes, ex-processing-plant, export FOB and Japanese wholesale quotes get mixed into the same table. Lining up things at different stages and producing a multiple is not actually a comparison. What can be concretely recommended as the next move is to have two candidate companies produce a quote for one container and shipment results for the most recent three months under the same processing form, same size and export FOB conditions. Now that areas where domestic product returns and areas where it does not are divided, do not fix on a single replacement source, but keep yourself in a state where you can compare on both price and specifications.

Materials referenced

• VASEP, daily world-seafood roundup (September 24, 2026)
• Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency, FY2026 Sea of Japan Japanese flying squid long-term fishing-conditions forecast
• Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency, FY2026 first Pacific Japanese flying squid long-term fishing-conditions forecast
• VASEP, squid-and-octopus exports, five months (July 3, 2026)
• VASEP, squid-and-octopus exports, four months (June 1, 2026)
• VASEP, fourth-quarter export outlook (September 19, 2026)
• VASEP, Hokkaido scallop production outlook (September 22, 2026)