In a tally compiled in early July by the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), seafood export value for the first half of 2026 reached about US$5.8 billion, up 12.8% year on year. Growth was led by exports to China and Hong Kong, which rose 37.9% to US$1.5 billion, accounting for more than a quarter of the total. Meanwhile, exports to Japan came to just about US$787.5 million, up 0.7%, staying flat while the absolute level of value remained high. As China moves toward procurement that pushes through on volume, will Japanese buyers lose out in buying on the same footing, or is there a different path to winning? We overlay the breakdown of the figures with the structural change in seafood in which the China shift became clear and read them together.
The overall first-half picture VASEP presented
What catches the eye in this tally is the momentum of June alone. Monthly export value was about US$1.1 billion, up 21% year on year. The double-digit growth through the first half was lifted by this June surge. By item, shrimp came to US$2.3 billion in the first half (up 13.6%), over 40% of the total, and pangasius (catfish) to US$1.1 billion (up 12.1%), about 20%; the picture of these two items as the drivers has not changed.
By market, the standout is China and Hong Kong. Up 32.2% in June and 37.9% in the first half, they showed growth that pulled away from other markets. The US showed signs of recovery, up 48.3% in June, and in the first half returned to about US$900 million, roughly level with the previous year. Japan and the EU, by contrast, sank into flat territory, with clear regional differences in growth momentum.
Why only exports to Japan are not growing
Behind exports to Japan being limited to 0.7% growth lie demand-side circumstances. On top of sluggish domestic consumption, the weak yen has heightened the sense that imported seafood is expensive, and an environment persists in which buyers find it hard to increase volumes. For Vietnamese seafood contracted in dollars, the effective purchase unit price keeps rising as seen from the Japanese side, which settles in yen.
However, it is too early to lump this together as "stagnation of the Japanese market." What China wants is live and whole fish and large-sized seafood, with trade that moves on price and volume at its center. Japanese procurement, rather, is thick in labor-intensive value-added goods such as fillets, peeled shrimp and heat-processed products, so the very nature of the buying differs. The flat figures reflect that the quality of demand lies on a different axis from China.
The difference in temperature by market and by item, in figures
Lining up the major markets and items for the first half shows where the money is heading.
| Category | First-half export value | Year on year |
|---|---|---|
| Total | About US$5.8 billion | +12.8% |
| China and Hong Kong | About US$1.5 billion | +37.9% |
| US | About US$900 million | Nearly flat |
| Japan | About US$790 million | +0.7% |
| EU | About US$540 million | -0.8% |
| Shrimp (all items) | About 2.3 billion dollars | +13.6% |
| Pangasius | About US$1.1 billion | +12.1% |
While China overwhelms the rest in both absolute value and growth rate, Japan maintains a scale second only to China in value but contributes little to growth. The concentrated structure in which shrimp and pangasius alone account for 60% of total exports is also a premise when narrowing down sourcing.
Voices from the field and the industry
Picking up VASEP's view and the burdens the production sites bear makes it easier to form a read on future price movements.
- VASEP Deputy Secretary-General Le Hang expects 8–10% growth for the full year 2026 and forecasts that export value could exceed US$12 billion. However, she cautions that sustained Chinese demand, pangasius's price competitiveness, a recovery in shrimp, and resolution of the IUU (illegal fishing) problem are conditions.
- While strong processed shrimp and lobster to China supported the first-half growth, producers face rising prices for fry, feed and transport, and the room to pass on costs is limited.
- Amid a global decline in white-fish supply, stronger inquiries for pangasius as a substitute are also cited as a tailwind for export expansion.
The "processing" opening Japanese procurement should go after
Behind the flat figures lie two concrete opportunities for Japanese buyers.
First, the uniquely Japanese position of value-added processed goods. In exports of Vietnamese seafood, Japan is seen as one of the few markets with a balance of demand between raw-frozen and processed goods. In contrast to China buying up whole fish by volume, Japan has steadily continued to take highly processed goods such as peeled shrimp, tempura-grade and prepared-dish products. The more the weak yen worsens the import economics of whole fish, the more the relative advantage of value-added goods—which can move yield losses and processing labor costs to the production site—actually rises. This is a phase where the idea of switching cost calculations premised on domestic pre-processing over to procurement of already-processed goods comes into play. The move by the largest shrimp company to add processing capacity at a new plant is already showing up as the reason the new base in Ca Mau changes Japanese procurement.
Second, the room to build pangasius in as a practical substitute for white fish. As the supply of wild white fish such as cod species thins worldwide, pangasius—whose price can be predicted and whose volume can be secured year-round—is easy to plan around as a raw material for foodservice and prepared-meal businesses. It is already becoming established as a standard white fish at conveyor-belt sushi and set-meal chains, and its spread is the story of how pangasius became a staple in Japan covered in detail. The supply momentum of 12% first-half growth backs up stable procurement for those arranging long-term contracts for cut portions and fillets.
And one more point: over-concentration on China is a risk for the Vietnamese side too. The more dependence on China stands out at 37.9% growth, the greater the uncertainty of prices being swung by stricter inspections and demand swings. Even if it cannot match China in volume, Japanese demand—which values stability of unit price and contracts—has value as a diversification destination for Vietnamese companies. It is precisely in processing categories with few buyers that room to negotiate terms remains.
Basic first-half data
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Compiling body | Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) |
| Period covered | January–June 2026 (first half) |
| Total exports | About US$5.8 billion (+12.8% year on year) |
| June alone | About US$1.1 billion (+21%) |
| Largest market | China and Hong Kong (about US$1.5 billion / +37.9%) |
| To Japan | About US$790 million (+0.7%) |
| Full-year target | US$12 billion (VASEP, 8–10% growth expected) |
Summary—reading the flat figures as a "change in composition"
The overall first-half growth of US$5.8 billion was made by China, but the next move changes depending on whether one takes the 0.7% growth to Japan as stagnation. The market China pushes on volume and the market Japan selects by degree of processing do not compete in the first place. Even on the premise of a continued weak yen, for items that can move domestic processing costs to the production site, such as already-processed shrimp and pangasius portions, a winning path in procurement measured by total yen-denominated cost remains. What should be checked first is the total cost when reorganizing one's handled products from whole-fish-centered to processed-goods-centered, and how far unit prices can be fixed through annual contracts with multiple Vietnamese suppliers. Now, while Chinese demand is overheating, is precisely the time to initiate negotiations in the processing categories.
