In a tally compiled in June 2026 by the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), the country's seafood exports reached US$4.67 billion in January–May, up 11% year on year. The drivers were shrimp (US$1.9 billion, up 11.5%) and pangasius (US$905 million, up 12.6%). What stands out is the change in destinations: exports to China and Hong Kong jumped 40.5%, while exports to the United States fell 10% and those to the EU also shrank 2.2%. For Japanese seafood buyers who want stable sourcing of shrimp and white fish from Southeast Asia, this "China shift" is a move that cannot be ignored on both supply capacity and price. This article draws on verified figures to interpret the impact on Japanese procurement strategy. (Currency conversion uses about 160 yen to the US dollar as of June 2026.)
Gist of the originating news
According to VASEP, Vietnam's seafood exports in January–May 2026 were US$4.67 billion, up 11% year on year. By item, shrimp came to US$1.9 billion (up 11.5%), accounting for about 40% of total exports, followed by pangasius (a white fish of the catfish order) at US$905 million (up 12.6%). Squid and octopus, crab and crustaceans, and bivalves also posted double-digit growth, while tuna was weak, down 6%. VASEP has indicated an outlook of 8–10% growth for the full year 2026, with export value of over US$12 billion within sight.
Why is the "China shift" happening now
The mix of destinations has transformed
What changed character most in these figures is the mix of destinations. Exports to China and Hong Kong, which rose to the largest market, came to about US$1.2 billion, up 40.5%. By contrast, exports to the United States, long a mainstay of Vietnamese seafood, fell 10% to US$689 million, and exports to the EU also retreated 2.2% to US$435.6 million. Exports to Japan rose 0.4% and to South Korea rose 4%, both roughly flat, while exports to ASEAN rose 16.8%.
A structural change on the demand side drove it up
In China, amid a recovery in dining out and expanding seafood consumption by the middle class, inquiries for shrimp, lobster and white fish surged. For Vietnamese shrimp, China rose to the largest market in 2025, and exports of live lobster also grew rapidly from the previous year, strengthening Vietnam's presence in the high-unit-price tier. The United States, on the other hand, saw demand held back by uncertainty over customs clearance and tariffs, while the EU's recovery was slow amid the economy and inventory adjustment. The substance of this change in the mix is that Vietnam's exporters have shifted the center of gravity of their sales channels to the growth market of China.
Market-by-market data (verified)
Organizing the VASEP tally (January–May 2026, year on year) shows a clear divide in fortunes by destination.
| Destination | Export value | Year on year |
|---|---|---|
| China and Hong Kong | About US$1.2 billion | +40.5% |
| US | US$689 million | -10% |
| EU | US$435.6 million | -2.2% |
| Japan | Not disclosed | +0.4% |
| South Korea | Not disclosed | +4% |
| ASEAN | Not disclosed | +16.8% |
By item, in addition to shrimp at US$1.9 billion (up 11.5%) and pangasius at US$905 million (up 12.6%), many items other than shrimp and white fish also grew: squid and octopus at US$304 million (up 18%), crab and crustaceans at US$160 million (up 19%), and bivalves at US$122 million (up 22.8%). On the other hand, tuna fell to US$372 million (down 6%). As for exports to the United States, the anti-dumping duty rate on shrimp has been cut sharply from the previous 35.29% to 4.58%, leaving room for exports to the US to recover in the latter half of the year.
The local and industry reception
On the full-year outlook, VASEP has set out the conditions under which exports of over US$12 billion come within range: if Chinese demand stays firm, pangasius maintains its price competitiveness, shrimp strengthens its competitiveness, and progress is made on tackling IUU (illegal, unreported and unregulated) fishing and strengthening traceability of raw materials. Whether Vietnam can capture Chinese demand is positioned as the near-term focus.
In a phase where the destination mix moves toward a decline in the US and a surge in China, processing capacity and the allocation of raw shrimp tend to tilt toward China's high-unit-price tier. The way the impact appears differs by product. For shrimp, where price swings are large, negotiations over volume and price conditions tend to move first, while for pangasius, which is chosen for price competitiveness, the volume allocation to Japan takes effect later depending on Chinese demand. The fact that sourcing competition with Chinese players is increasingly felt for shrimp and white fish has also entered a stage where it must be factored in as a premise of import operations.
Implications for Japanese seafood buyers
This China shift confronts Japanese procurement teams with three issues.
1. A "scramble" for spare supply capacity begins
If exports to China grow at a pace of 40.5%, the likelihood rises that a certain share of Vietnam's processing capacity and raw shrimp will be allocated to China first. Exports to Japan being nearly flat at 0.4% growth involves multiple factors, such as sluggish Japanese demand, price conditions and differences in the product mix, but there is also pressure from a growing China pulling supply toward itself. Japanese buyers need to question the assumption that "we can always secure our usual volumes" and move to lock in annual-contract volumes and delivery dates early. The axes to check are concrete.
- Whether required volumes are translated into destination-specific contracts for each shrimp processing form (HLSO, PTO, peeled, etc.)
- Whether size ranges (count-per-unit grading) and glaze ratios are fixed in purchase orders to prepare for yield fluctuations in the peak season
- Whether delivery lead times are estimated separately for the normal period and the Chinese-demand period
2. The initiative in price negotiations tilts toward sellers
The presence of China buying at high unit prices pushes up Vietnamese sellers' price expectations. Spot-centered procurement is prone to price-increase risk during periods of strong Chinese demand. To smooth out prices, ordering designs like the following are effective.
- Diversify across multiple companies and multiple production areas, reducing dependence on any single company or production area
- Lock in the main part of the annual volume by contract before the peak season when Chinese demand rises
- Hold down the spot ratio and ease market fluctuations with a combination of fixed and linked pricing
3. Pangasius can be reassessed as a "substitute for white fish"
Pangasius is firm, up 12.6%, and its price competitiveness is being maintained. In a phase where the prices of other white fish such as cod and Alaska pollock stay high, the option of building it into raw materials as a substitute for specific uses becomes more realistic.
- For fries and fish burgers: fixing thickness and yield by specification makes it easy to fit into foodservice operations
- For prepared dishes and simmered dishes: seasoning can absorb differences in flavor, making it easy to position as a mainstay for cost appeal
- Choosing certified products such as ASC or BAP leads to appeal for retail and foodservice that sells on traceability
the case in which low-emission green rice was shipped to Japan for the first time, procurement that puts traceability front and center also passes easily in Japanese retail and foodservice, and the same idea can be applied to white fish.
Ripple effects on the industry and market
The world's shrimp-producing regions compete for China
The China shift is not confined to Vietnam alone. For shrimp, competition with India and Ecuador is fierce in the world market, and each country is targeting the growth market of China. The more Vietnam earns in China, the more a tug-of-war arises over prices and volumes for Japan and the US. In a phase where the initiative in price-setting tilts toward producers and exporters, the buyer's room to negotiate narrows accordingly.
A scenario in which the two major markets, the US and China, grow at the same time
If exports to the US recover thanks to the cut in the US anti-dumping duty rate, Vietnam's supply will be heavily allocated to the two major markets of the US and China. In this case, there could be a development in which Japan's relative priority falls even further. The stronger the "growth phase" of exports overall, the more a procurement system that avoids losing out in buying is put to the test. Agriculture, forestry and fisheries exports reached US$30.7 billion in five months, which also shows how Vietnam's food exports as a whole are gaining momentum. For Japanese processing and foodservice, there is growing merit in factoring in the risk of relying solely on Vietnam and designing a portfolio that combines other production areas and domestic product.
Checkpoints for procurement practice
We have organized the practical items that Japanese companies handling Vietnamese shrimp and white fish will want to review at this juncture.
| Issue | Points to confirm | Direction of response |
|---|---|---|
| Securing volume | Risk of allocations shrinking due to priority for China | Lock in annual-contract volumes and delivery dates ahead of time |
| Price fluctuation | Price increases in the Chinese-demand period | Diversify across multiple companies and production areas; order before the peak season |
| Product substitution | Persistently high prices for cod and the like | Build pangasius in as a white-fish substitute |
| Production-area diversification | Risk of relying solely on Vietnam | Use Indonesia, India and domestic product alongside |
| Added value | Prone to being drawn into price competition | Differentiate through traceability and certification |
If prioritizing, we would want to start with "securing volume" and "price fluctuation." That is because, in a phase of strong Chinese demand, fixing volume and price in annual contracts is what works first. On top of that, building production-area diversification and product substitution as medium-term preparations, and advancing added value through certification in parallel as a defensive move to avoid price collapse, raises the overall stability of procurement.
Frequently asked questions
Will Vietnam's seafood "China shift" halt supply to Japan?
There are no signs of it halting. Exports to Japan remained nearly flat, up 0.4%, in January–May 2026. However, because exports to China have surged 40.5%, in the peak season Vietnam's bargaining power on securing volume and on price tends to strengthen, so there is value in preparing by bringing annual contracts forward and diversifying production areas.
Can pangasius substitute for white fish such as cod?
Depending on the use, it is a strong option. Pangasius was firm, up 12.6%, in January–May 2026, and its price competitiveness is being maintained. As a processed raw material for fries, prepared dishes and foodservice, a growing number of companies are considering it as a substitute for other white fish whose prices remain high. Because taste and texture differ by species, it is realistic to assess it through trial production for each use.
Isn't the decline in exports to the US a blow to Vietnamese seafood?
It was down 10% in January–May, but because the anti-dumping duty rate on shrimp has been cut sharply from 35.29% to 4.58%, there is room for exports to the US to recover in the latter half of the year. If a development unfolds in which the two major markets of the US and China grow at the same time, Japan's relative priority could actually fall, so the procurement side needs to watch closely.
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