Vietnam's produce (fruit and vegetable) exports reached US$1.53 billion in the first quarter of 2026, up 31.4% year on year. Alongside Chinese demand, shipments to the United States, Japan and Europe grew. The key to reaching the annual US$10 billion target lies not in the macro figures but in how far closed-loop value chains can be built for individual items such as durian, banana, pomelo and coconut. This piece narrows the focus to that item-by-item supply structure and lays out the changes Japanese buyers and distributors should read.
The Q1 starting point—what makes up the US$1.53 billion
Vietnam's produce exports came to US$1.53 billion in Q1 2026, up 31.4%. The driver is Chinese demand, but expanded shipments to the United States, Japan and Europe also contributed. Authorities indicate that if mainstay items such as durian, banana, pomelo and coconut are grown through closed-loop value chains and the existing export protocols are used effectively, exports could reach US$10 billion in 2026.
What stands out is that the point has entered a stage where success is decided not by the sum of volume or value, but by the supply design of "who grows it how, and to which market's standards" for each item.
Durian—capturing both volume and unit price by using protocols
Q1 durian export value was about US$222 million, up 127.8% year on year, standing out above the rest. Frozen is growing on top of fresh, and a strategy of using market-specific protocols selectively is working. Managing traceability by growing-area code, a "green lane" running straight through from soil to shipment, and efforts to speed up customs clearance to China are advancing.
At the same time, the risk that tighter inspections shake supply and demand remains. The fact that Korea-bound shipments surged 262% and frozen swelled 20-fold shows a clear move to diversify markets and strengthen the resilience of the value chain.
Banana—a design that earns on "value per hectare"
Banana is a good example of an item-by-item value chain. In early 2026, 11 containers and 220 tonnes of South American–type Cavendish were shipped to Japan, Korea and China. Pham Quoc Liem, chairman of U&I Agriculture (Unifarm), says of banana exports currently at about US$380 million that "if we can raise export value per hectare to around US$25,000 a year, we could reach US$3.8 billion in the future."
Rather than adapting to each market's certification case by case, the company takes the approach of running a unified quality standard through the entire production chain. As a measure against the Panama disease that spread in 2016–17, it is also advancing in-house development such as the disease-resistant variety UNI126. For Japan- and Korea-bound shipments, compliance with pesticide-residue regulations is a precondition.
Comparison of item-by-item value chains
| Items | Q1 trend and scale | Key points of the value chain | Main markets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Durian | About US$222 million (+127.8%) | Growing-area codes plus a green lane shorten customs clearance; frozen diversifies markets | China, Korea |
| Banana | Export value about US$380 million | Unified quality standard, US$25,000 per-hectare value, disease-resistant varieties | Japan, Korea, China, Australia |
| green-skin pomelo | First shipment to Australia (5 tonnes by air plus about 11.9 tonnes by sea) | GlobalGAP and a switch to organic fertilizer for stable purchasing | Australia, the United States, China |
| Coconut | Entering an expansion phase as the protocol takes effect | Value addition through added processing sites | China, the United States |
* Figures are on a Q1 2026 basis. Exchange converted at US$1 = JPY 156 (as with the yen figures in the body text).
Pomelo—the GlobalGAP conversion that supported opening up Australia
Green-skinned pomelo was shipped to Australia for the first time on April 13, 2026, from Vinh Long and Dong Thap provinces. In a market opening that took about two years of negotiation, Blue Ocean air-freighted about 5 tonnes (about US$7 per kg) and Vina T&T shipped about 11.9 tonnes by sea.
What supported this market opening was the value-chain buildout at the growing site. In the process of joining the supply chain and applying GlobalGAP, farmers were pushed to switch to organic fertilizer and biological pesticides and to comply with food-safety rules. As a result, purchasing became stable and market risk fell. Vinh Long province is a main growing region holding about 13,800 hectares of green-skinned pomelo alone, and is in an expansion phase, with exports to the United States also up 60% year on year.
Impact on Japanese buyers and distributors
Looked at item by item, what is realistic for Japan is banana and pomelo. For banana, a growing number of producers are growing to a unified standard premised on Japan- and Korea-bound pesticide-residue regulations, making it easier to secure fruit of stable grade. For pomelo, GlobalGAP-compliant orchards that have passed the demanding Australian and U.S. markets are maturing, making the quality backing easy to obtain for Japan-bound shipments too.
From a sourcing standpoint, discerning "which producer grows it in which certification chain" matters more than "how much the total grew." The more fruit is grown in a closed loop, the smaller the variation in volume and quality.
Ripple effects on the industry and the road beyond US$10 billion
The US$10 billion target the authorities set will not be reached on macro tailwinds alone. It becomes reality only when item-by-item buildout accumulates—durian's use of protocols, banana's lift in per-hectare value, pomelo's GlobalGAP conversion. To avoid the risk of a price crash (domestic oversupply caused by tighter Chinese inspections), market diversification and closing the loop are shared challenges.
The Japanese market seeks quality and stable supply more than volume. The more item-by-item value chains are in place, the less Japan-bound trade is swung around by the ups and downs of the figures.
Summary
Behind the 31.4% rise in the Q1 total, durian, banana and pomelo are each pushing up exports with different value-chain strategies. Achieving the US$10 billion target hinges not on macro figures but on the supply design of each item. Japanese buyers should discern their suppliers—centered on banana and pomelo—on the axis of "which certification chain the fruit was grown in" rather than the size of the growth rate.
