638 Indonesian plants cleared for China: how will Vietnamese shrimp sourcing change

China's General Administration of Customs newly certified eight Indonesian seafood processing plants for export to China, bringing the total of certified plants to 638 (reported by the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers, VASEP, on June 29, 2026). An increase in suppliers in the vast Chinese market directly pushes up the competitive environment for Vietnamese shrimp and pangasius, which have the same market as their main battleground. For Japanese food buyers, it is a harbinger of movement in the sourcing structure of Southeast Asian seafood, and also a good opportunity to broaden supplier options.

What the 638-plant setup means

The eight companies certified this time, such as PT Duta Mitra Semesta and PT BPH Global Indonesia, are processors that meet the food-safety, hygiene and traceability standards China requires. The additional certification took effect on May 11, 2026, bringing Indonesia's China-export-certified plants up to 638. In 2025 Indonesia shipped 491,528 tonnes, worth US$1.04 billion, of seafood to China, growing into a supplier country handling 1,080 items including frozen squid, various seaweeds and hairtail.

The increase in certified plants is not merely a matter of numbers. It means that suppliers able to enter the Chinese market through regular channels are steadily increasing, and competition subdivides on both price and quality. The advantages of geographic proximity and track record that Vietnam has enjoyed until now remain, but a phase is approaching in which it can no longer rely on price alone as the reason to be chosen.

Where Vietnamese seafood leaning toward China stands now

Vietnamese seafood exports were solid in January-May 2026, led by shrimp and pangasius. Shrimp was US$1.9 billion, up 11.5% year on year, becoming the largest item at about 40.4% of all seafood exports. Pangasius also grew to US$905 million, up 12.6%, and both items support Vietnamese seafood's growth.

What is strengthening its presence as the destination for this is China. China's imports of Vietnamese shrimp in January 2026 were US$129.6 million, up 15% year on year, making China the largest export destination. The structure in which the China shift becomes clear while shipments to the United States and South Korea struggle to grow was, previously, an article dealing with the China shift in Vietnamese seafood as organized there as well. But the more dependence on China rises, the more susceptible it becomes to the impact of intensifying competition in a Chinese market where suppliers increase.

The local recognition that it is no longer an easy market

Within the Vietnamese industry, too, voices are emerging that China can no longer be called an easy market. If Canada's 25% tariff is removed, competition will grow even harsher, and Australia is seen stepping up its offensive in the premium band. In fact, in lobster, Vietnam overtook Canada in 2025 to become China's largest supplier (24,067 tonnes, a 34.5% share), but even that position cannot be held on price alone.

The recognition common to local export companies is that they need to switch from seasonal spot selling to stable supply backed by clear specifications and a brand. Having entered a stage where environmental standards, traceability and supply-chain transparency are questioned, the era of competing on price alone is coming to an end. This pressure to shift to quality and specifications strengthens the more supplier countries increase.

The structure of exports to China in data

Vietnamese seafood exports as a whole are said to be up 8-10% in 2026, and if Chinese demand holds firm, pangasius maintains its price competitiveness and shrimp can raise its competitiveness, a total of more than US$12 billion comes into view. Put the other way, if competition in the Chinese market grows harsher than expected, this premise easily collapses. For Vietnam, diversification away from relying solely on China emerges as a realistic option.

Implications for Japanese food buyers

A situation of strengthening competition with Indonesia in the Chinese market gives Vietnamese suppliers a motive to shift toward Japan and high added value. The Japanese market is among the world's strictest in environmental standards, hygiene and traceability, and entry is difficult for producers who can meet them, but once through, they can build a more stable trading relationship than the volatile Chinese spot trade. Intensifying competition in China works in the direction of increasing producers who get serious about Japan.

There are three points of focus in practice. First, because producers screened by specifications and certification come around to supplying Japan, negotiating with traceability as a condition increases the number of counterparts able to respond compared with before. Second, producers wanting to lower their dependence on China tend to be more open to multi-year contracts and stable orders, widening the buyer side's room to negotiate. Third, for items whose price fluctuates with Chinese demand, such as pangasius, switching to direct sourcing that specifies the producing region and processing plant makes it easier to absorb market swings. A case of actually moving toward exports to Japan, the flow in which Vietnamese tilapia grasped the US and Brazilian markets, likewise, has specification compliance as its breakthrough.

Ripple effect on the whole market

Indonesia's expansion of its plant network is a step that redraws the supply map of Southeast Asian seafood. The more countries concentrate on the single vast market of China, the higher the cost of differentiation there, and the more rational diversification into surrounding markets becomes. If Vietnam steers toward quality, brand and stable supply, the first to benefit are Japanese buyers who can offer stable trade in exchange for demanding strict standards. If intensifying competition is taken as a good opportunity to reselect sourcing, a sourcing system less swayed by price can be rebuilt now.

Sources

VASEP: 638 nhà máy chế biến thủy sản Indonesia được cấp phép xuất khẩu sang Trung Quốc

ANTARA News: Indonesia expands fishery export access to China

Vietnam Fisheries Magazine: Vietnam’s shrimp exports in 2026 — a race to defend market share in China

VOV: Shrimp, pangasius continue to drive seafood export growth