In Chu Prong commune (xa Chu Prong) in Gia Lai province in Vietnam's Central Highlands, durian orchards that should have been awaiting harvest are being cut down one after another. The September 23, 2026 edition of the Vietnamese newspaper Agriculture and Environment (Nong nghiep va Moi truong) reported that, by a provisional tally, trees over an area of more than 10 hectares had died standing in Hoang Yen and Bat villages. The cause has not yet been identified. An initial view that it may be fungal has emerged, but the type of fungus is unknown.
By area alone, more than 10 hectares is small. Still, what makes it worth reading for Japanese buyers is that what the commune People's Committee listed as an immediate call to action was neither pesticides nor varieties but a way of using the land: "stop monoculture and intercrop with coffee." Ahead of the cause emerging, the way of growing is already moving.
In Chu Prong commune, Gia Lai province, orchards nurtured to maturity are being felled whole
Nearly 300 six-year-old trees died standing, having yielded 17 tonnes the previous year
The family of Le Van Thanh in Hoang Yen village planted nearly 300 durian trees among siblings, and the trees were about six years old. The previous year they harvested about 17 tonnes at a selling unit price of VND 57,000 per kilo. The paper, however, writes only "selling price" and does not indicate at which trading stage this unit price applies. Converted at JPY 1 = VND 163.60 (September 25, 2026), that is about JPY 348 per kilo, and multiplied by 17 tonnes it comes to VND 969 million, about JPY 5.92 million (the multiplication is this article's calculation).
This season those orchards died. What the paper reports as Thanh's observation is a progression in which black spots appear on the trunk, then leaves fall, and the tree dies standing. Thanh says the prolonged rain that continued for a little over two months may have induced the fungus's emergence and spread. The paper writes that the loss, premised on the previous year's yield level, reaches hang ty dong (on the order of billions of dong; 1 ty = 1 billion dong = about JPY 6.11 million), a figure that does not include years of investment and management costs. But the earlier multiplication comes to VND 969 million, short of 1 ty, so the paper's description and the simple calculation do not match.
A fourth-year stand of 162 trees all fell just before their first harvest
Trinh Ngoc Oanh, in the same village, held 162 trees that had entered their fourth year. This year was to be the first harvest, and Oanh told the paper of having expected income of VND 400–500 million (about JPY 2.45–3.06 million). The whole orchard went under the saw. If a neighboring orchard is struck by the fungus, it will come here unless cut early, Oanh says, and every household has no choice but to fell. The more years a crop takes to reach its first harvest, the more one season's weather can break the operation.
The type of fungus has not been identified; what the commune called for was intercropping with coffee
The die-off is concentrated in two villages; the symptoms resemble pepper's dieback
According to Ngo Anh Tuan of Chu Prong commune's agriculture and infrastructure section, the die-off is concentrated in two villages. As an initial view, the possibility of a fungus was raised because the symptoms resemble the dieback (quick and slow wilting) of pepper (ho tieu), but the type of fungus has not been identified. To read this as "confirmed to be fungal damage" is to get ahead of the facts.
According to the same official, the commune People's Committee had, even before this, repeatedly called on farmers not to expand durian planting, especially on flat, poorly drained land. When rain lingers, water pools within the orchard and the conditions for the fungus to spread come together. On that basis, what it listed as an immediate call to action was to avoid monoculture and intercrop with coffee to lower risk, and to be mindful that the durian price has been unstable of late. Within what the paper reported, improving drainage facilities was not among the calls to action, nor is it written that the dead orchards actually meet the "flat, poorly drained" condition.
In Krong Pac in 2017, nearly 500 ha died and Phytophthora was identified
This is not the first time damage of this type has appeared in the Central Highlands. According to the paper's February 2017 article, nearly 500 hectares of mature trees died in Krong Pac district of Dak Lak province, and the appraisals and analyses of two domestic institutions agreed in concluding that Phytophthora spp. caused trunk resin leakage. In some plots Rhizoctonia spp. was also detected alongside. At the time, the province's cultivation and plant-protection authorities explained that overuse of flowering- and fruiting-stimulant agents and chemical fertilizer had weakened tree vigor, onto which out-of-season prolonged rain overlapped. The case from nine years ago does not become the answer this time, but what buyers should look at is not the disease name but the management history.
Produce exports hit a record for a single month; orchards are being cut at durian's peak
US$1.37 billion in the single month of August, US$6.15 billion cumulative over eight months
As the paper reported from customs authority (Cuc Hai quan) figures, produce export value in August 2026 was US$1.37 billion (1.37 ty USD), up 27.6% from July. It set a record high for a single month. Nguyen Thanh Binh, chairman of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, indicated a view that the year could reach around US$10 billion (a personal projection, not a confirmed figure).
| Item | Original notation | Converted | Growth rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Produce exports, single month of August 2026 | 1.37 tỷ USD | US$1.37 billion | +44.5% year on year |
| Produce exports, cumulative January–August | Over 6.15 ty USD | Over US$6.15 billion | +27.7% year on year |
| Of which China-bound, January–August | Over 3.87 ty USD | Over US$3.87 billion (63% of the total) | +38.8% year on year |
| Of which Japan-bound, January–August | 173 triệu USD | US$173 million | +5.8% year on year |
More than 10 hectares is not a scale that moves supply volume
What the paper reported as the view of the Ministry of Industry and Trade's import-export department is a reading that in September–October the Central Highlands durian enters its final peak, and because few other countries are harvesting durian in this period, it supports China-bound shipments. The orchards being cut fall in the middle of the most saleable period for the growing region as a whole. To write that more than 10 hectares of die-off means "Vietnamese durian supply is thinning" does not add up by orders of magnitude. The demand side is growing, and the move for destinations beyond China to broaden was Durian to Korea up 188% over seven months—what should Japanese buyers be stocking up on?. What should be taken out is not a supply shock but the fact that results differ orchard by orchard even within the same province.
Buyers who cannot wait for the cause to emerge—what can they ask about the orchard?
Terrain, drainage and planting year can only be obtained on site, not from documents
What appears in a growing region's documents is area, yield and certification number; slope and waterlogging in the rainy season do not appear. Since the cause has not been confirmed, ask about drainage conditions not as "this time's cause" but as a caution the commune People's Committee had been raising all along. If you have photos sent, having them shoot the furrows and drainage ditches after rain—rather than the fruit—gives you better material for judgment. What to look at at the grading and processing stage is a separate matter, which is More durian but fewer Grade A: how should Japanese buyers choose a factory? laid out in.
Confirm "which stage the unit price is from" before comparing
This VND 57,000/kilo is a figure whose trading stage has not been verified. If you line it up against the price at the packing house, the export FOB, or the Japanese wholesale price and derive a multiple, you get a ratio unrelated to reality. When you receive a quote, confirm in writing which stage that unit price is from and how far it includes grading, packing, transport and quarantine.
Six items you can use as is for a growing-region inquiry
| Item to confirm | Example of how to ask | Relevance to this case |
|---|---|---|
| Terrain and drainage | Is it sloped or flat? Are there plots that waterlog in the rainy season? | The commune People's Committee warned of this all along |
| Monoculture or intercropping | Monoculture, or intercropped with coffee, etc.? | The dispersion measure the commune People's Committee listed as an immediate countermeasure |
| Tree age and planting year | Planting year and first-harvest year by plot | A fourth-year orchard can be a total loss in one season |
| History of fertilization and stimulants | How is flowering-promotion fertilization managed? | A factor in the loss of tree vigor in the 2017 Krong Pac case |
| Trading stage of the unit price | Which is it—farmgate, packing-house, or FOB? | Figures from different stages cannot be used for comparison |
| Alternative plots | Does the same supplier have other growing regions or other plots? | Damage of the type where whole villages fall at once is occurring |
Cut orchards return to coffee; the effect on Japanese roasters comes years later
The cost of replanting to coffee is earned by working first
Thanh told the paper that after clearing the orchard he plans to go out to work in order to raise funds for the coffee replanting (tai canh). The reason he gave is that while coffee does not generate standout income, it suits their production conditions and is seen as more stable. Oanh, like many farmers nearby, also says he will return to coffee. The scale of two villages does not move procurement volume, but if a flow of young coffee entering the felled sites spreads, Gia Lai's Robusta will see more young-aged plots a few years later.
Demand swings to the upstream of seedlings and inputs
Once rebuilding begins, what moves is seedlings and soil inputs. The seedling-raising scene in the same province was A Gia Lai nursery company that ships 21 million seedlings a year: tracing the upstream of wood-chip sourcing covered in. Where seedlings come from and how their quality is managed is the first fork that determines the provenance of the raw material years later.
Start by adding one line to your next quote request
Read as a story about supply volume, this case yields nothing; read as a story about how land is used, it leaves material for judgment that applies to durian, coffee and pepper alike. If you are going to act, it is enough to start by adding one line to the questionnaire the next time you request a quote from a Vietnamese supplier: "the terrain and drainage conditions of the target plot, and whether it is monoculture or intercropped." A partner who can answer knows the orchard; a partner who cannot likely has several layers in between.
Sources
- Sau rieng chet hang loat, nguoi dan chat bo ca vuon (Bao Nong nghiep va Moi truong, September 23, 2026)
- Dak Lak: Nam Phytophthora spp lam sau rieng chet hang loat (same paper, February 28, 2017)
- Xuat khau rau qua dat ky luc gan 1,4 ty USD trong 1 thang (same paper, September 23, 2026)
- Exchange rate (as of September 25, 2026, JPY 1 = VND 163.60)