In the shrimp export data the Vietnam Association of Seafood Processors and Exporters (VASEP) published on August 24, the growth in the single month of July split sharply by market. While cumulative leader China holds 33.5% of the whole, Australia grew the most in July, up 43.9% year on year, whereas Korea conversely sank to down 14.6%. The ranking by amount itself still runs China, the US, Japan, Korea, Australia, but the map of "where it is growing" is moving. For Japanese buyers handling Vietnamese shrimp, it is material for the judgment of whether to lean sourcing on one country or to lock in a growing market before competitors gather.
This article reads not the tariff story but the changing of the market's lead shown by the bias in July's growth rates.
2.8 billion dollars in January-July; in July, Australia's 43.9% growth beat China
According to VASEP, shrimp exports in January-July 2026 were about 2.8 billion dollars (about 414.4 billion yen converted at 1 USD ≒ 148 yen, the same approximate basis below), up 13.5% year on year. The largest, China-bound, was about 939 million dollars (about 139 billion yen), up 42.3%, driving the cumulative growth and accounting for 33.5% of the whole. China also piled about 130 million dollars (about 19.2 billion yen) in July alone, maintaining 19.2% growth.
But the one that took the lead in single-month July growth was Australia. Australia-bound was 155.1 million dollars (about 23 billion yen), up 16.5%, in the January-July cumulative — the smallest amount of the five markets — yet in July it was 29.3 million dollars (about 4.3 billion yen), up 43.9%, pulling well away from China's 19.2% growth. The amount is still small, but by growth rate it approaches a lead-role momentum.
| Market | January-July cumulative | Cumulative year-on-year | July single-month year-on-year |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | About 939 million dollars | +42.3% | +19.2% |
| US | 357.5 million dollars | −11.4% | +7.3% |
| Japan | About 323.8 million dollars | +4.0% | +10.1% |
| South Korea | 197.3 million dollars | −1.6% | −14.6% |
| Australia | 155.1 million dollars | +16.5% | +43.9% |
Source: VASEP (August 24, 2026). The yen conversion is an approximate figure calculated at 1 USD ≒ 148 yen. Cumulative is January-July, single-month is the July year-on-year.
Korea down 14.6% in July, pushed on price by Indian and Ecuadorian supply
By contrast, the one that sank was Korea. In the January-July cumulative it was 197.3 million dollars (about 29.2 billion yen), down 1.6%, which looks like a small retreat, but in July alone the drop became stark at down 14.6%. Behind it is a structure in which cheap shrimp from India and Ecuador is gaining presence in the Korean market and Vietnamese product is being pushed on price. Judging it "roughly flat" by the cumulative slight decline alone misreads the recent loss of momentum. Korea has long been a stable mid-scale market for Vietnamese product, absorbing both processed shrimp and raw-material shrimp. That one corner swinging to a double-digit decline in a single month leads supplying Vietnamese makers to redirect surplus volume to other markets. From the Japanese buyer's view, you need to watch both at once: the possibility that the processed shrimp loosened on the Korea side comes around to your own country, and conversely the possibility that factories that can no longer compete in Korea shift their footing to Australia and squeeze Japan's quota.
What takes effect here is that Korea and Australia, while both "mid-scale existing markets," split into buyers that choose by price and buyers that choose by degree of processing. Korea got caught in the price contest for raw-material shrimp, while Australia is growing with labor-intensive goods. That color-coding by market is advancing as Vietnamese seafood overall strengthens its China shift is also the picture of Vietnamese seafood in which the China shift grows clear- it overlaps with that too.
What Australia's 40% value-added shrimp shows about how to pitch Vietnamese product
The reason Australia is growing is not mere volume increase. In shrimp exports to Australia, highly processed value-added goods are said to account for about 40% of the amount, and it is prepped and cooked goods — not peeled or raw-for-eating — that sell. Unlike raw-material shrimp, whose price swings with typhoons and supply-demand, processed goods have a stable unit price and are less likely to be dragged into a price-slashing fight. The substance of Australia putting out 43.9% growth in July reflects Vietnamese product landing in the direction of "taking over the labor of processing" rather than "the cheapness of raw material."
Put the other way, Korea's loss of momentum is the consequence of standing on the same ground as India and Ecuador with raw-material shrimp, and a market where Vietnamese product can only differentiate on price is easily shaved away. From the production-area-choosing side, it can be read that the more a market is growing, the higher its demand for degree of processing, and the business of putting product out cheaply as raw material will taper off.
Japan up 4% at 323.8 million dollars, up 10.1% in July, holding firm
Japan-bound was about 323.8 million dollars (about 47.9 billion yen) in January-July, up 4%, a middling growth among the five markets, but in July alone it was up 10.1%, regaining momentum. By amount it is the third largest after China and the US, a stable market a size larger than Australia or Korea. What matters for Japanese seafood buyers is the point that the "grow by degree of processing" trend happening in Australia has, in fact, already advanced further in the Japanese market. Prepping for shrimp fry and peeled shrimp, sushi-topping processing, and the like — Japan has sought processing from Vietnamese product from early on.
In that sense, Australia's 43.9% rise signals an approaching competitor for Japanese procurement teams. If more Vietnamese producers divert processed-shrimp capacity to Australia, the volumes Japan has long secured at familiar prices and lead times could shift. The relationship between the value-addition of Vietnamese seafood and Japanese sourcing is What makes up Vietnam's US$5.8 billion in seafood and the processing niche Japanese sourcing holds as laid out there, and the stage of competing on cheap raw material is already drawing to a close. The overall balance of power in seafood, in which China has become the largest market and Japan has slipped to third, China overtaking the U.S., and Japan's position at third place in sourcing the picture seen there is now advancing for shrimp on its own as well.
A practical checklist for not concentrating sourcing in a single country
From this data, here are the points practitioners handling Vietnamese shrimp will want to keep in mind.
- Always read cumulative and single-month figures separately. As with South Korea, where a cumulative 1.6% decline came alongside a 14.6% drop in July, the latest shifts show up first in the monthly numbers.
- Check the export mix of your supplier plants. Factories focused on processed shrimp for Australia are more likely to see their spare capacity and prices for Japan move.
- Quote raw shrimp and processed products separately. Raw material gets drawn into a price fight with India and Ecuador, while processed goods hold a steadier unit price.
- The more Australia grows, the more inquiries concentrate on factories that have processing facilities. Lock in the volume and lead time for processing capacity early.
Australia up 43.9%, South Korea down 14.6%: the scramble for processing capacity
In July, shrimp exports kept the same value ranking — China, the U.S., Japan, South Korea, Australia — yet the single-month gap of Australia up 43.9% and South Korea down 14.6% hinted at a changing of the guard. Australia's gain was supported by processing demand, with value-added shrimp making up 40%, while South Korea's slide stemmed from price competition in raw shrimp — a contrast in substance. The next move for Japanese buyers is to map out their suppliers' export mix and fix the volume and lead time for processed shrimp first. Whether they can secure processing capacity before competitors fully crowd into the growing markets will be the dividing line for stable sourcing.
