A thorough comparison of Vietnamese vs. Thai agricultural-product exports

Vietnam and Thailand are both leading agricultural exporters of Southeast Asia. For Japanese food importers and people in agriculture, deciding which country to source which items from is an important management judgment. Many people are unsure: 'In the end, which has the competitive edge, Vietnam or Thailand?'

This article explains the differences in the two countries' export value, market share and strategy, centered on three items: rice, shrimp and fruit, together with concrete data.

Grasping the Big Picture of Vietnam's and Thailand's Farm Product Exports

First, let's check the scale of the two countries' farm product exports.

Vietnam's farm product export value exceeded US$53 billion in 2023, surpassing Thailand's US$40 billion. Vietnam is also pulling ahead in the diversity of its items.

On the other hand, Thailand has a long export track record and international brand power. Its high-quality jasmine rice and tropical fruit are highly rated in world markets, and in unit-price terms Thailand still holds the edge in many items.

Differences in Approach to Export Markets

Both countries have China, the United States and Japan as their main markets, but there is a clear difference in approach. Vietnam's forte is large-volume exports leveraging its geographic proximity to China. Thailand's strength is a premium-product line in Western markets, taking a unit-price-focused strategy.

Comparing Rice Export Competitiveness

Rice is one of the most important export items for both countries. We compare it along three axes: quantity, price and variety.

Differences in Export Volume and Unit Price

Thailand exported about 8.7 million tonnes in 2023, slightly outpacing Vietnam in quantity. However, Thailand's unit price is about 30% higher, so its high-value-added strategy is working.

Vietnam has actively pursued varietal improvement in the past few years. By developing high-quality varieties such as ST25, it is working to raise its unit price. ST25 being chosen as the 'world's best rice' in 2022 has accelerated its entry into the premium market.

The Competitive Situation in the Japanese Market

In rice exports to Japan, both countries are affected by import tariffs, but there is steady demand for raw rice used in processed foods. Vietnamese product is differentiated by price competitiveness and Thai product by aroma and quality, so they are often used selectively depending on the application.

Which Has the Stronger Shrimp Export Power?

In shrimp exports, Vietnam has an overwhelming advantage.

Comparison of Export Scale

Vietnam's shrimp export value is US$3.8 billion, nearly double Thailand's US$1.8 billion. In the 2010s, Thailand's shrimp industry took a heavy blow from acute hepatopancreatic necrosis disease (AHPND). It has since been on the road to recovery, but the gap with Vietnam remains large.

Three Reasons Vietnamese Shrimp Is Strong

First is the breadth of its farming area. Centered on the Mekong Delta, it has vast farming grounds and a mass-production system in place. Next is its high processing technology; it is well equipped for high-freshness freezing for Japan and for processing into peeled and ready-to-cook products. And then there is price competitiveness; favorable conditions in labor and farming costs continue to give it an edge over Thailand.

For Japanese food buyers, Vietnamese shrimp is widely recognized as a strong sourcing option with a good balance of quality and price.

Comparing Presence in the Fruit Market

In recent years, the fruit sector has seen the most dramatic change.

Export Competitiveness by Main Item

The biggest topic in fruit exports is durian. Vietnam's durian export value exceeded US$2.5 billion in 2023, a surge of more than tenfold from five years earlier. This is the result of capturing the explosive rise in demand in China.

Thailand was traditionally a durian-export powerhouse, but with Vietnam's rise, it is losing market share. Thai durian maintains its quality brand, but in price competition it is being pushed back by Vietnam.

Fruit Import Trends in the Japanese Market

In Japan, demand for Southeast Asian fruit is rising year by year. Imports of mango, papaya and dragon fruit are on a continuous upward trend. Thanks to strengthened pesticide-residue inspection systems and improved quarantine compliance, Vietnamese fruit is steadily raising its adaptability to the Japanese market.

Differences in Export Strategy and the Outlook Ahead

Based on the item-by-item comparison, we organize the strategic differences between the two countries.

Vietnam's Strategy: A Turning Point from Quantity to Quality

Vietnam has so far pursued export expansion with quantity as its weapon. But it is now facing a turning point toward quality. The government has set a target of raising farm product exports to US$62 billion by 2030, with the development of high-value-added varieties and the promotion of organic farming as pillars.

FTAs (free trade agreements) are also being used actively. Tariff elimination through multilateral trade agreements, such as the EVFTA with the EU, the UKVFTA with the United Kingdom and the VJEPA with Japan, is steadily advancing.

Thailand's Strategy: Maintaining Brand and Quality

Thailand has long continued a quality-brand strategy for its farm products under 'Thailand Brand.' Jasmine rice and Thai fruit have an established image of 'high quality and safety,' enabling sales at premium prices.

On the other hand, it also faces challenges such as rising production costs and an aging farm population. It is advancing investment in smart agriculture and farm mechanization, but structural change is expected to take time.

Three Points to Watch Toward 2030

The three points to watch over the next five years are as follows.

1. Whether Vietnam's durian and fruit exports can diversify away from dependence on China
2. Whether Thailand's shrimp industry can fully recover and narrow the gap with Vietnam
3. The expansion of food-safety compliance and international certification in both countries

In developed-country markets including Japan, demands for pesticide-residue standards, traceability and sustainability are rising. The ability to respond to this will greatly influence future export competitiveness.

Summary

Comparing Vietnam's and Thailand's farm product exports item by item, the following trends emerge.

Vietnam leads in quantity and price competitiveness and is rapidly improving quality. Thailand keeps its edge in brand and unit price but faces challenges on the cost front, as things stand.

For Japanese food importers, optimizing the sourcing origin according to item, application and price range is called for. The perspective of using Vietnam and Thailand selectively according to their respective strengths leads to a competitive sourcing strategy.

At VN AGRI, we share the latest information on Vietnamese agriculture.

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