Chinese frozen squid is rapidly losing its presence in the EU market. As the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) reported on July 28, China's frozen-squid exports to the EU in the first half of 2026 came to just 19,690 tonnes, down 49.4% from a year earlier. China's share of the EU's frozen-squid imports has halved, from 28.1% to 14.2%. With the largest supplier retreating, a vacancy has now opened on Europe's shelves. How much of this gap can Vietnam's cephalopods pick up? Even from the standpoint of handling domestic dried goods and processing materials, a competitor's retreat leads to redrawing the sourcing map.
Peru, up 47.5%, overtakes India for the top spot; the center of gravity of supply shifts to Latin America
In the EU statistics VASEP cites, the EU's total frozen-squid imports in the first half were 152,273 tonnes, down 21.2% from a year earlier. The main cause of this drop is China's reduced supply. When a single country, China, pulls back on the order of 10,000 tonnes, the EU's total import volume shrinks by 20%—that is how much of a pillar China was for Europe's squid supply. Filling the gap was Peru. Its first-half shipments to the EU were 48,591 tonnes, up 47.5%, overtaking India for the top spot. The top three countries—Peru, India and Morocco—now hold about 65% of the EU's frozen-squid imports. The center of gravity of supply is shifting from China to Latin America, South Asia and North Africa.
China 19,690 tonnes, -49.4%; the EU's total imports also down 21.2%, leaving slack on the shelf
| Item | First half of 2026 | Year on year |
|---|---|---|
| China's frozen-squid exports to the EU | 19,690 tonnes | -49.4% |
| The EU's total frozen-squid imports | 152,273 tonnes | -21.2% |
| Peru's exports to the EU | 48,591 tonnes | +47.5% |
| China's EU share | 14.2% (28.1% a year earlier) | Nearly halved |
Even with Peru adding about 16,000 tonnes, the EU-wide 20% decline has not been filled. In other words, there is still unabsorbed demand on Europe's shelves. This slack becomes the entry point for later-coming supplier countries.
Vietnam's squid and octopus exports up 18.8% in the first half—but the main battleground is still South Korea
Vietnam's cephalopod exports are on a recovery trend. In VASEP-based tallies, squid and octopus exports in the first half of 2026 totaled US$380.2 million (about 59.7 billion yen at 1 USD ≈ 157 yen), up 18.8% from a year earlier. June alone was US$77.9 million, up 26.5%, with growth accelerating. By item, as of the first two months of the year, squid was up about 30% and octopus up more than 16%, with squid's growth standing out. The main battleground, however, is Asia. The largest market is South Korea, at about US$42 million in the first half, up 23%. Shipments to the EU were about US$15 million over five months, up 11%—still small in value. Vietnam is at the stage of going after the European shelf space that China vacated. Measured against the association's goal of US$700 million a year (about 109.9 billion yen), the EU gap is upside itself.
Peru slots into the European shelf on volume; Vietnam on processing level
Supplier countries' responses are split. Peru is a raw-material-type supplier that catches large squid in its own near seas, and it was first to fill the vacancy on price and volume, seizing the top spot. China, by contrast, leans heavily on importing raw material and processing and re-exporting it, so it easily loses price competitiveness when processing fees and the cost of meeting regulations rise. The phase in which China's EU-bound shipments halved reflects how raw-material-type countries push on volume while processing-type countries sway depending on conditions. Vietnam's stance is to go after the EU as an increment while building on the thick Asian demand of South Korea and Japan. VASEP has repeatedly pointed toward adding value through processing rather than shipping raw material as is, and VASEP's messaging urging a shift from raw-material export to processing overlaps with this battle for Europe's gap as well. Vietnam slots into the shelf Peru filled on volume by way of processing level—even in the same gap, the angle of attack differs.
China's EU retreat hits Japan twice: through supply-demand and through competition for Vietnamese product
This structure hits Japanese buyers in two ways as well. One is price. If China drops volume in the EU, that raw material and processed product become more likely to flow to the Asian market, potentially affecting, little by little, the supply-demand and price of Japan-bound frozen squid and processed goods. The other is intensifying competition. If Vietnam increases EU-bound shipments, there will be more scenes where Japan and Europe compete for the same allocation of Vietnamese product. If Japanese procurement competes on price alone, it risks being the side pushed out by growing European demand. The trend in which China overtook the US to become the largest market for Vietnamese seafood Within that trend, Japan, while among the top, is not the single dominant market, and the reality is that for cephalopods too South Korea is the largest market. If you want to secure Vietnamese squid and octopus steadily, you need to move toward tying up with the region through continuing contracts that lock in processing specifications and standards, rather than spot volume buying. The phase in which June alone grew 26.5% and growth is quickening is a signal that production and processing in the region are turning up. The earlier you prepare, before demand rises worldwide, the easier the price and volume terms are to secure.
Check your partners' EU inquiries and the distribution routes of Chinese product
If you reread a competitor's retreat as an opportunity, there are three things to check. First, how many EU-bound inquiries your Vietnamese processor partners hold. If the flow turns to Europe, it rebounds onto Japan-bound priority and price. Second, changes in the distribution routes of Chinese frozen squid. If product that lost its outlet in the EU turns to Asia, the reference point for raw-material prices moves. Third, the idea of differentiating on processing level. The demand the EU cannot fully absorb is also slack for processed goods, not raw material. Ca Mau's low-emission shrimp, which built trust in EU-bound trade As in that example, there is value in the Japanese side securing early the regions that meet European standards through records and certification. The shelf China vacated is an opportunity for Vietnam's cephalopods and at the same time a signal for Japanese procurement to raise the quality of its competition.
