The industry's eyes are on export value: whether Vietnam's durian exports will reach a record US$4.5 billion (about ¥710 billion at ¥158 to US$1) in 2026. It is a target figure reported by VnExpress on August 6. The tailwind was that the General Administration of Customs of China accredited 18 new Vietnamese inspection labs on July 31, bringing the number of accredited labs to 50 in all. The inspection-system bottleneck that clogged clearance in 2025 is easing, and the turnover of shipments to China is returning. Because this move affects Japan's frozen-durian procurement on both supply volume and price, we want to check the figures one by one.
Inspection labs up 18 to 50 in all: clearance that clogged in 2025 starts moving
In the first half of 2025, Vietnam's durian exports to China stalled. According to multiple local reports (SGGP, Produce Report, and others), the Chinese side took issue with residues of cadmium and the yellow dye auramine O (basic yellow) and tightened inspection, and clearance was delayed by the temporary suspension of inspection labs and backlogs. During this time, Thailand regained share of the Chinese market, and Vietnam's volume fell sharply, it is reported.
The addition of 18 labs on July 31 is a measure that widens this inspection capacity itself. With accredited labs reaching 50, inspection for cadmium and dyes can be handled at places closer to the shipping point, shortening the wait for transshipment at the border. VnExpress also reports that full digitization cut the number of days to issue growing-area codes from 10 to 3. It is a design that speeds processing on both inspection and paperwork, and the aim of getting the harvest-season volume starting in August fully onto clearance can be read.
The makeup of US$4.5 billion: built up with US$1.1 billion in the first half and the August-October peak
Following the breakdown of the target amount, it is not an unreasonable figure. First-half 2026 exports were about US$1.1 billion (about ¥174 billion), up 32% year on year. On top of this comes the August-October harvest season in the Central Highlands. VnExpress reports that in the same period the previous year it was close to US$100 million a month. The structure of Vietnamese durian's main growing areas and seasons is What Is Vietnamese Durian: Growing Regions, Varieties, Season, and Exports Today as laid out there, and with the Central Highlands and Mekong Delta the waves of shipments continue, so the value concentrates in the second half.
Keep the year-by-year growth in mind too. Full-scale exports to China, which began at US$400 million at the end of 2022, expanded to US$2.2 billion in 2023 and US$3.8 billion in 2025. The US$3.8 billion of 2025 is the previous record, and the US$4.5 billion of 2026 is a challenge to exceed it by about 20%. The construction is that adding the first half's US$1.1 billion and the harvest-season peak brings it within range.
| Indicator | Amount (USD) | Yen conversion (US$1 = ¥158) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 export target | US$4.5 billion | About ¥710 billion |
| 2025 actual (previous record) | US$3.8 billion | About ¥600 billion |
| First half 2026 (+32% year on year) | About US$1.1 billion | About ¥174 billion |
| 2023 actual | US$2.2 billion | About ¥350 billion |
| End-2022 actual | US$400 million | About ¥63 billion |
| India market, first-year projection | US$50 million-100 million/year | About ¥8 billion-16 billion |
90% of exports go to China: how India's opening thins the skew
Behind the figures is a skew. According to VnExpress, about 90% of durian exports go to China. The faster clearance to China becomes under the 50-lab system, the stronger the picture in which a single Chinese inspection standard moves the annual export value up or down. The 2025 stall was a phase in which that fragility surfaced. The expansion of Chinese demand and its ripple into Vietnamese agriculture are Chinese durian demand and its impact on Vietnamese agriculture, 2024-2026 covered in detail there.
One move to thin the skew is market diversification. In July 2026, India opened its market to imports of fresh Vietnamese durian. Dang Phuc Nguyen, secretary-general of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, expects shipments to India to generate US$50 million-100 million a year in the initial stage. That is a few percent of the US$4.5 billion scale, but it is meaningful as an outlet for lowering dependence on China alone step by step. The broader expansion of Vietnam's fruit exports is Vietnam, a treasure trove of tropical fruit: a fruit guide by growing area, season, and variety summarized there.
What Japanese procurement buyers should watch is the frozen supply and price swings
Vietnamese fruit makes up a considerable share of the frozen durian distributed in Japanese supermarkets and online shops. The faster clearance to China turns, the more fresh fruit flows preferentially to the Chinese market, affecting the supply and price of ingredients routed to frozen processing for Japan. In phases where the Chinese side's inspection tightens, as in 2025, domestic inventory stagnates and more is diverted to frozen and processed goods; conversely, in years when shipments to China are smooth, the room for processing thins. It tends to be this kind of tug-of-war.
In procurement practice, the solid approach is to read the August-October harvest season, when the pull toward China strengthens, against the timing of orders and inventory for Japan. Residue standards for cadmium and auramine O differ by destination, and the point that a lot rejected under Chinese standards does not simply go to another market is also not to be missed in confirming an ingredient's provenance. The accumulation of inspection data for China under the 50-lab accreditation itself leads to a lift in growing areas' quality control, and over the medium term makes the quality outlook for Japan easier to project.
US$4.5 billion is a figure to be pursued with 50 labs of inspection capacity, not one that relies on demand
The 2026 target of US$4.5 billion is not a demand-reliant wish but a figure to be secured through a 50-lab system from the July 31 addition of 18 labs and the processing speed of three-day issuance of growing-area codes. But the roughly 90% dependence on China remains, and India's opening stays at the scale of US$50 million-100 million a year in the first year. For Japanese procurement buyers, how clearance to China turns during this harvest season determines the frozen-durian supply and the purchase price. We want to watch the pace of shipments to China in August-October against our own order calendar.
Sources
- VnExpress International, 'Vietnam eyes record $4.5B durian exports this year' (August 6, 2026)
https://e.vnexpress.net/news/business/economy/vietnam-eyes-record-4-5b-durian-exports-this-year-5106048.html - SGGP English「Vietnam’s durian industry reeling as China rejects shipments over contaminants」
https://en.sggp.org.vn/vietnams-durian-industry-reeling-as-china-rejects-shipments-over-contaminants-post117622.html - Produce Report「Vietnam Links Excessive Cadmium in Durians to Korean Fertilizers」
https://www.producereport.com/article/vietnam-links-excessive-cadmium-durians-korean-fertilizers - VietnamNews, 'India opens market to fresh Vietnamese durian' (July 2026)
https://vietnamnews.vn/economy/1796557/india-opens-market-to-fresh-vietnamese-durian.html
