In April 2026, the US Department of Commerce launched anti-dumping duty reviews of frozen shrimp targeting Vietnam, India, Thailand and China. This move has sent a major shock through Vietnam's seafood export industry, appearing as a severe figure of roughly 60% decline in shrimp exports to the US from the immediately preceding month.
Overview of the review and the finalized duty rates
In the 19th administrative review completed by the US Department of Commerce, the following anti-dumping duty rates on Vietnamese frozen warm-water shrimp have been finalized.
| Company category | Dumping margin | Cash deposit rate (after countervailing offset) |
|---|---|---|
| Main respondent companies (Stapimex, Thong Thuan, etc.) | 25.76% | 25.46% |
| Other eligible companies | 4.58% | 4.28% |
| Additional import duty (for 150 days from February 24, 2026) | 10% | — |
The two companies named as main respondents are Soc Trang Seafood Joint Stock Company (Stapimex) and Thong Thuan Co. (including its Cam Ranh branch). Although these companies were reduced from 35.29% in the preliminary review to a final 25.76%, they are still forced to bear a high duty burden.
A direct hit to exports: the reality of a 60% year-on-year decline
According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), shrimp exports to the US recorded a decline of "about 60% year on year" in the month immediately before the review began. Behind this sharp drop are compound factors.
- A wait-and-see stance by importers: Importers waiting for duties to be finalized are curbing their orders
- Rising compliance costs: Document-review and inspection costs have increased substantially
- Weak consumption: Domestic US seafood consumption has also trended soft
- The cumulative effect of additional duties: A 10% additional import duty applies for 150 days from February 24, 2026
For the full year 2025, Vietnam's shrimp exports recorded a record high of US$4.6 billion, showing strength with a 19% year-on-year increase. Exports to the US alone showed steady growth at US$796 million (up 5%), but the situation changed completely entering 2026.
A rapid shift to the Chinese market
In response to headwinds in the US market, what Vietnam's seafood exporters are moving quickly on is a shift to the Chinese market. Shrimp exports to China (including Hong Kong) in 2025 reached US$1.23 billion, a remarkable 61% year-on-year increase. Green lobster (live lobster) in particular expanded rapidly to US$840 million (up 131% year on year), exceeding US$100 million in January 2026 alone.
Notably, Vietnam has overtaken Canada as China's largest lobster supplier. The rise in China's premium seafood demand has become a new growth engine for Vietnamese shrimp and lobster.
Analysis: the asymmetric benefit that the US-China split brings to Vietnam
This picture highlights the fundamental risk structure of Vietnam's agricultural and fishery exports. Amid US-China trade friction, Vietnam is placed in a "two-sided position" in which it receives tariff pressure from the US on the one hand while benefiting from China's sanctions against the US on the other.
Looking at Q1 2026 agriculture, forestry and fishery export data, exports to the US fell 5.2% year on year while exports to China rose 37.6% (related article: Vietnam's agriculture, forestry and fishery exports at US$16.69 billion in Q1 2026). Even in the single item of shrimp, this geopolitical shift appears clearly.
VASEP recommends to the industry that it "accelerate market diversification toward China, the EU and ASEAN," but the ironic situation is that in reality over-concentration on China is accelerating. It is also noted that if China's tariff on Canadian lobster is lifted, there is a risk that the competitive environment will change abruptly from March 2026 onward.
Implications for Japan
For Japanese seafood importers and food processors, this move is also a good opportunity to increase buying power. That is because Vietnamese exporters wanting to redirect US-bound inventory are seeking price-competitive supply to alternative markets, including Japan. There is a possibility that a phase in which procurement conditions for Vietnamese shrimp improve will arrive in the short term.
On the other hand, continuous verification of Vietnamese shrimp's quality standards and residual-agrochemical management systems is necessary. In response to the US tightening its reviews, moves to strengthen traceability are advancing within Vietnam as well, and this is expected to lead to long-term quality improvement.
Outlook ahead
The 2026 seafood export target is set at US$11.5 billion, but if the stagnation of the US market continues, complementary growth in the Chinese and EU markets holds the key. VASEP states that "from the second quarter of 2026 onward, if Vietnam can reduce tariff barriers, there is a prospect of recovery," and the outcome of the ongoing Japan-US and Vietnam-US trade negotiations will be an important turning point.
[Sources]
-Undercurrent News – US launches antidumping duty reviews (April 6, 2026)
-Vietnam News – Tariff shock from the US increases risks for shrimp exports
-VietnamNet – Vietnam’s US$4.6 billion shrimp industry
