Why durian became a "national fruit" in China
In Japan, the image of durian as "smelly" runs deep. Yet in neighboring China, exactly the opposite is happening. Entering the 2020s, durian has been embraced explosively by China's wealthy and middle classes, and annual consumption has now reached the largest scale in the world.
This article explains why Chinese demand for durian has swelled so much, and what changes it is bringing to Vietnamese agriculture, drawing on the latest data from 2024 to 2026. For people in agriculture and food importers, it offers useful content for understanding both the opportunities and the risks.
China's durian imports reached about 1.42 million tonnes in 2023, said to account for more than 70% of total global exports. Isn't that figure larger than you imagined? Behind it lie rising incomes and a shift toward "premium fruit consumption." Spread on social media and nationwide distribution through e-commerce platforms have brought durian even to consumers in inland regions.
How Vietnam rose to become the "lead player" in exports to China
China's durian supply was once almost monopolized by Thailand. But a turning point came in 2022. Vietnam concluded a formal quarantine and customs clearance agreement with China (an agreement on phytosanitary conditions), and exports of fresh durian were liberalized all at once.
| Year | Vietnam's durian export value to China | Year on year |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | About US$60 million (mostly via informal channels) | — |
| 2022 | About US$560 million | about 8 times |
| 2023 | About US$2.4 billion | About 4.3x |
| 2024 (estimate) | About US$3.0–3.5 billion | About 30–45% increase |
As of 2023, Vietnam's durian export value recorded the highest level ever for a single farm product. It quickly captured a place as a "flagship export item" alongside coffee and rice.
The differentiating factor from Thailand lies in geographic advantage. Vietnamese durian can cross the border by truck, so it arrives fresher than Thai durian shipped by sea. This is valued by Chinese buyers.
Rapid expansion of cultivated area and the benefits for farmers
Riding the export boom, Vietnam's domestic cultivated area is expanding at a rapid pace. The main production areas are the southern provinces of Dak Lak, Lam Dong, and Tien Giang. Cultivated area, which was about 30,000 hectares as of 2019, is said to have expanded to an estimated more than 70,000 hectares by 2024. That is more than a doubling in five years.
The benefits for farmers are also clear. The farmgate price per kilogram of durian reached as high as 80,000–120,000 dong (about 480–720 yen) at peak times. By comparison, this is at a level incomparably higher than the returns from cassava or corn on the same area of land.
Crops where conversion is taking place
- Moves to convert part of coffee plantations to durian are increasing in the central highlands
- Attempts to introduce durian are also underway even in low-return rubber plantation areas
- Conversion of paddy fields is restricted by government regulation, but there are cases where conditional permits are granted
However, durian takes 4–6 years from planting to first harvest. Trees planted now will bear fruit around 2028–2030. If current demand continues, it is a virtuous cycle, but the risk of oversupply cannot be ignored either.
The structure of surging prices: why they fluctuate so wildly
From 2024 to 2025, durian prices in production areas repeatedly fluctuated wildly. Let us organize what lies behind the boom.
Upward factors
– Concentrated demand during Chinese peak consumption periods such as Lunar New Year and National Day
– Reduced harvests due to poor weather (the effect of El Nino)
– Supply delays from customs backlogs and tighter quarantine
Downward factors
– Temporary concentrated shipments during the harvest season
– Inventory adjustment by buyers on the Chinese side
– Competition with Thai products (Thailand is also negotiating improved customs clearance conditions)
Because price volatility is high, both farmers and exporters are trying to put in place mechanisms such as contract farming and forward transactions. However, small-scale farmers have weak bargaining power in negotiations and tend to be at the mercy of market prices—that is the current reality.
The 2025 average price in the production area (Dak Lak province) has moved at 60,000–90,000 dong per kilogram, maintaining a level roughly three times the 20,000–30,000 dong level seen before 2022.
Quality control and export regulation: challenges to clear
Vietnam's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) is strengthening quality control at the same time as expanding exports. Compliance with China's food safety standards (pesticide residues, heavy metals, cadmium, etc.) is essential, and any violation carries the risk of an export suspension.
In 2023, there were reported cases of some Vietnamese durian being returned by the Chinese side for excess cadmium. In response, the government has made obtaining a certified cultivation code mandatory and strengthened guidance on pesticide use.
| Standard item | Level required by China | Vietnam's state of compliance |
|---|---|---|
| Pesticide residues | Compliant with EU and Codex standards | Introduction of a certified-farmer system |
| Cadmium | 0.05 mg/kg or less | Promoting mandatory soil testing |
| Cultivation code | Numbered for all lots | Registration of all production areas by the end of 2024 |
| Phytosanitary certificate | Certificate issued by MARD | Electronic customs clearance system under development |
For exporters, the challenge is the rise in quality-control costs. On the other hand, farmers and businesses that can obtain appropriate certification can also be said to gain broader opportunities to trade at premium prices.
Will there be spillover into the Japanese market?
Durian imports are also on an upward trend in Japan, but the scale is in a different league from that destined for China. That said, if quality-improvement efforts in the Chinese market advance, a quality foundation that can be diverted to exports to Japan may well be put in place. The day when Vietnamese durian can be stably sourced in Japan may not be far off.
Outlook and risk factors from 2026 onward
As of 2026, Vietnam's durian exports are expected to continue growing, but several scenarios are conceivable.
Bullish scenario: China's domestic demand expands steadily, and Vietnamese products achieve exports on the scale of US$4 billion a year. Through improved production-area infrastructure and a more complete quality-control system, differentiation from Thailand is maintained.
Adjustment scenario: Oversupply from the rapid expansion of cultivated area causes prices to fall. Farmers' returns are squeezed, and abandonment of farming and crop conversion occur again.
Intensifying-competition scenario: Malaysia, Cambodia, the Philippines and others also expand exports to China, eroding Vietnam's share.
A management strategy prepared for multiple scenarios is needed by both farmers and exporters. Dependence on a single crop and a single market is a textbook risk factor. The government, too, has begun putting effort into diversifying varieties and promoting exports of processed goods (frozen durian, durian paste).
Summary
The rapid expansion of Chinese durian demand has brought Vietnamese agriculture an export opportunity of historic scale. Starting from the 2022 customs clearance agreement, export value grew roughly fourfold or more in two years. Cultivated area, too, has expanded more than twofold in five years.
At the same time, three risks also exist: wild price swings, rising quality-control costs, and the catch-up of competing countries. Rather than simply jumping at a short-term boom, management decisions mindful of medium- and long-term supply planning and market diversification are called for.
Trends in Vietnamese durian are a theme worth watching not only for people in agriculture but also for food importers and trading companies. We will continue to follow future market changes.
At VN AGRI, we share the latest information on Vietnamese agriculture.
