Something unusual is happening in Europe's whitefish aisle. Pollock fillet blocks have topped US$5,000 per tonne in the EU market (about ¥750,000 at ¥150 to the dollar), with US, Russian, and Chinese product all setting record highs. Buyers hunting for an affordable substitute are turning their gaze to Vietnamese pangasius (basa / tra) farmed in the Mekong Delta. According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), pangasius exports in January to July 2026 reached US$1.3 billion (about ¥195 billion), 8.8% above the same period last year. The global whitefish shortage is lifting exports of farmed catfish.
This article, aimed at agricultural-product buyers and seafood-import practitioners, lays out what is happening in Europe now and how the aftershocks reach Japanese procurement, confined to figures that could be confirmed.
Pollock tops US$5,000 in the EU, and the Barents Sea cod quota falls to a 30-year low
The epicenter of the price surge is the shrinking of wild-whitefish resource quotas. The North Pacific Fishery Management Council (NPFMC) set the 2026 total allowable catch (TAC) for Gulf of Alaska pollock at 134,118 tonnes, cutting it 26% from the prior year. The Bering Sea quota was left roughly unchanged at about 1.4 million tonnes, but the drop within the Gulf chilled supply sentiment.
More serious still is the Atlantic side. The Barents Sea cod quota fell to 48,530 tonnes, roughly half of the prior year — the lowest level since the early 1990s. Behind it is a shortfall in recruitment (young fish newly entering the fishery) that has persisted since 2014. VASEP deputy secretary-general Le Hang notes that with whitefish such as cod, haddock, and pollock staying high-priced, EU buyers are seeking more price-competitive substitutes. When the wild-resource quota thins, demand flows to fish that can be supplied steadily through farming. This pattern is a tailwind for pangasius.
US$1.3 billion and up 8.8% in January to July, with US$2.3 billion for the full year in range
Lining up the numbers makes the momentum clear. The January-to-July pace of US$1.3 billion, up 8.8% year on year, is comfortably on track for the US$2.3 billion (about ¥345 billion, up 5% year on year) that VASEP projects for the full year. The harder higher-priced pollock is to obtain, the more pangasius's relative advantage grows, since its volume can be secured through farming.
Even among farmed whitefish, tilapia's January-to-July exports were US$74 million (about ¥11.1 billion), up 63% year on year — a large growth rate but an order of magnitude smaller in value. Pangasius is one of the few items that can fill Europe's gap at the scale of over a billion dollars, and its strength is that it can compete on supply volume rather than growth rate. When a buyer wants to line up a certain volume of substitute supply, this is the first fish that comes up as a candidate.
| Item | Figure | Sources and notes |
|---|---|---|
| Pangasius exports (January to July 2026) | US$1.3 billion / +8.8% year on year | VASEP |
| Pangasius exports (full-year 2026 forecast) | US$2.3 billion / +5% year on year | VASEP forecast |
| Tilapia exports (January to July 2026) | US$74 million / +63% year on year | VASEP (for comparison) |
| Pollock fillet block (EU) | Over US$5,000 per tonne (record high) | US, Russian, and Chinese product set records simultaneously |
| Gulf of Alaska pollock TAC (2026) | 134,118 tonnes / -26% year on year | NPFMC |
| Barents Sea cod quota (2026) | 48,530 tonnes (about half of the prior year) | Lowest level since the early 1990s |
Converted at ¥150 to the dollar. Yen amounts are approximate.
The CATCH regulation that favors farmed fish, and headroom to grow the EU share from 8% to 10%
A regulatory tailwind is also not to be overlooked. From January 10, 2026, the EU made the digital catch certificate CATCH mandatory for imported seafood from wild capture. While wild cod and pollock face added certification and traceability work, farmed pangasius sits outside this framework and carries a lighter paperwork burden. With regulatory cost layered on top of the shortage and price surge, pangasius's relative usability as a substitute is rising.
Pangasius's share of the EU market is currently around 8%, and the industry aims to raise it to 10%. The phase in which wild-whitefish supply thins is a once-in-several-years window to grab these two points. That said, pushing in on price competition alone cannot escape the positioning of a cheap substitute. Standardizing fillet specifications, enforcing control of chemicals and antibiotics, and lifting quality to match the EU's label requirements are the conditions for keeping the share from being a one-off.
In Japan's whitefish procurement, pangasius moves from substitute toward the lead role
For Japanese buyers, this is not a fire on the far shore. Japan's whitefish consumption has pangasius in second place after pollock, and it has grown into an indispensable ingredient for conveyor-belt sushi and restaurant chains. If the global scramble for whitefish intensifies, the volume and price of wild whitefish that Japan's processing and foodservice can secure will also wobble. Now, while Europe is flowing toward affordable farmed whitefish, is exactly the phase for the Japanese side to move early to lock in volume and price.
How pangasius worked its way onto Japan's table is Kura Sushi's white fish was catfish — how pangasius became a Japanese staple followed in detail there. The fish's own biology and the basics of its farming are Pangasius (basa) summarized there. In Japanese procurement under a weak yen, the move to shift the axis from mass-produced frozen fillets to processed products becomes a business opportunity. This point is The day Vietnamese pangasius stops mass production: how processed goods open Japan's sourcing strategy explored in depth there.
CPTPP and value-added products — raising unit price with fillets and fish burgers
As ways to widen export destinations, VASEP cites, in addition to specific EU segments, expansion into Japan and CPTPP markets. Japan is a CPTPP member and has medium-to-long-term tariff support. However, recent Japan-bound exports are roughly flat (+0.4% year on year), and this is not a stage where volume grows automatically. To grow it, one must step beyond raw-fillet supply into processed and value-added products such as fillets and fish burgers.
The practical points narrow to three. First, secure volume with multi-year supply contracts while wild-whitefish prices stay high. Second, align fillet specifications and quality control with EU and Japanese requirements and shift the stance from used because it is cheap to chosen for quality. Third, take in the downstream processing of filleting, seasoning, and forming to make the trade less buffeted by raw-material markets. The whitefish shortage is a resource problem on a multi-year scale, not something that ends next season.
In sum: the shortage will last years, and if you are going to move, now is when supply is thinning
Pollock's EU price over US$5,000, the Gulf of Alaska TAC down 26%, and the Barents Sea cod quota at a 30-year low — these three happening at once define the 2026 whitefish market. Vietnamese pangasius's January-to-July exports of US$1.3 billion, up 8.8%, mirror the demand born as the flip side of that. Wild-resource quotas will not come back overnight. What Japanese procurement managers can do is lock in volume before prices finish moving and switch to trade that includes processed products.
Sources
- Nông nghiệp & Môi trường (VAN), 'Whitefish shortage opens window for Vietnamese pangasius exports' (August 10, 2026)article
- SeafoodSource「NPFMC cuts Gulf of Alaska pollock quotas by 25 percent」article
- SeafoodSource「Advised cuts to Barents Sea cod would put quota at lowest level in 30 years」article
- VietnamNews「VASEP forecasts pangasius exports to hit $2.3 billion this year」article
