Vietnam's seafood exports are trying to break out of a business of merely sending raw materials and semi-processed goods across the sea. In July 2026, the industry body VASEP (Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers) put forward the view that if products are finished into processed, packaged and branded goods rather than sold as raw or semi-processed, their product value could be two to three times what it is when exported as raw material. For Japanese importers who buy seafood from Vietnam, this is not merely a story of the local economy. In the first half of 2026, Japan ceded to China its seat as the largest buyer of Vietnamese seafood. Room is now widening not only for the idea of fighting over cheap raw material, but for the idea of sourcing goods that Vietnam has finished all the way to processing.
The "from raw material to product" shift VASEP envisions
The core of VASEP's argument is the idea of remaking export-value growth not through catch or farmed volume but through the added value layered onto each individual product. Sold as frozen fillets or whole fish, the price sticks to the international market, and profit is shaved directly by rising raw-material, logistics, labor, energy and certification-compliance costs. Against this, if processing into ready-cooked foods, branding and investment in traceability advance, room is created to sell at a higher unit price than shipping as raw material—that is the storyline the association draws. It is worth keeping in mind that "two to three times" is not an outlook that seafood exports as a whole will double, but a potential figure and target the association puts up, namely that value-added products could hold that much value relative to raw-material exports.
The turning tide shown by the figures — China becomes the largest buyer
According to VASEP's first-half tally, Vietnam's seafood exports in the first half of 2026 grew 12.8% year on year to a total of about 5.8 billion dollars (about 920 billion yen at about 158 yen to the dollar). But the content of the growth splits sharply by market. Exports to China and Hong Kong grew as much as 37.9% to about 1.5 billion dollars (about 237 billion yen), making up 25.8% of the total and overtaking the US, previously the leader, to become the largest market. Exports to the US were nearly flat in the first half at about 898 million dollars (about 141.8 billion yen), and those to Japan came to about 788 million dollars (about 124.4 billion yen), up only 0.7% year on year. A weak yen and soft domestic consumption are dulling Japan's buying power.
| Market | First-half 2026 import value | Year on year |
|---|---|---|
| China and Hong Kong | About 1.5 billion dollars (about 237 billion yen) | +37.9% |
| US | About 898 million dollars (about 141.8 billion yen) | Nearly flat |
| Japan | About 788 million dollars (about 124.4 billion yen) | +0.7% |
| Vietnam overall | About 5.8 billion dollars (about 920 billion yen) | +12.8% |
Converted at about 158 yen to the dollar (an estimate as of July 2026). Amounts are from VASEP's first-half 2026 tally.
Why "processing" is spoken of as the breakthrough
Whole fish and frozen fillets show little quality difference no matter which country makes them, and in the end tend to come down to a price contest. The growth to China centers on shrimp, pangasius and live and frozen goods, with a large weight on raw material through primary processing. If Japan competes on volume and price on the same ground, it works against it by the margin of the weak yen. Behind VASEP's emphasis on value-added goods is the aim of not relying solely on the fiercely price-competitive realm of raw material and primary processing, but remaking unit price and profit margin with "labor-intensive goods" such as ready-cooked, seasoned and portioned products. In this first half, Vietnam earned about 1.1 billion dollars from its mainstay pangasius alone (up 12.1% year on year, 19.4% of total exports), and how far this huge raw-material base can be turned toward processed goods will sway the association's full-year 2026 target of 12 billion dollars (8–10% growth).
The reading point for Japanese sourcing
Here is the point for Japanese importers to consider. The way of fighting to secure cheap raw whole fish and fillets in volume is, now that China has become the largest buyer, at a worse advantage than before. On top of that, domestic seafood processing faces a continuing labor shortage and rising processing wages, making the burden of sourcing raw material and doing the prep and processing in-house heavier year by year. In this situation, the option of sourcing goods that the Vietnamese side has finished all the way to processing is gaining weight over bringing in raw material and finishing it domestically. The "shift to value-added goods" VASEP wants to advance and the circumstance Japan carries of "wanting to reduce the labor of processing" have no small overlap. The move that tracked this trend for pangasius alone is covered in The day Vietnamese pangasius stops mass production: how processed goods open Japan's sourcing strategy, and the stage at which Japan and Vietnam began to circulate raw material and technology in both directions is covered in The era of Japan merely buying is ending; Japan and Vietnam enter a stage of circulating raw material to each other in seafood— but what is new about VASEP's view this time is that it was raised not as something confined to a specific fish species but as a policy for the seafood industry as a whole.
Ripple effects — the risk of supply flowing to China, and Japan's move
Optimism alone is not possible. While value addition can be an opportunity for Japan, if Vietnam's spare supply capacity is drawn toward the higher-unit-price Chinese market, Japan's stable sourcing could also thin. The case in which live lobster changed its earning style on Chinese demand (Live lobster nears US$1 billion: how China changed the way Vietnamese seafood earns) shows that when a higher-unit-price buyer appears, the direction of supply moves. That is precisely why Japan's move is likely to be not chasing price but grasping the processing design early. Settle the desired specifications, seasoning, packaging and traceability with Vietnamese processing plants at an early stage, and build the product in the form of joint development. If the relationship can be re-forged as a partner for making processed goods together, rather than a rival fighting over raw material, it becomes easier to secure sourcing on an axis separate from China's price offensive.
The points the sourcing side wants to grasp now
| VASEP's view | Processed and branded goods could be worth two to three times relative to raw-material exports (the association's target figure) |
|---|---|
| First-half 2026 results | Total about 5.8 billion dollars, up 12.8% year on year. China overtakes the US to become the largest market |
| Japan's position | About 788 million dollars, +0.7% year on year. Buying power dulled by the weak yen and stagnant consumption |
| Points to consider in sourcing | In addition to fighting over raw material, the option of joint development and sourcing of processed goods |
| Items to lock down | Agree early with the processing plant on specifications, seasoning, portioned packaging and traceability |
Summary — from raw-material buyer to product partner
VASEP's view is a sign that Vietnamese seafood is trying to turn the helm from selling raw material by volume to making products. For Japanese importers, threat and opportunity arrive back to back. With China now the largest buyer and the domestic processing burden heavy, it is worth examining in parallel not only the way of fighting to win raw material at auction but also the path of sourcing goods finished all the way to processing in Vietnam. First, try throwing concrete specifications, seasoning and packaging that your own company wants at a partner processing plant. From a position of competing on price as a raw-material buyer to a partner that designs processed goods together—it is worth using the Vietnamese side's policy shift as an occasion to rebuild Japan's sourcing.
References: Asian Agribiz／VietnamPlus／VnExpress
