The prices of Vietnamese fruit have fallen to rock bottom at the source. Mango, at the source, 6,000-10,000 dong per kg, and 25,000-30,000 dong at retail, four to five times a gap has opened up. June is the harvest peak when supply swells, and in addition, China's new regulation "Order 280"(effective June 1) has stalled exports, leaving inventory glutted domestically. The price plunge is a blow to producers, but for Japanese buyers seeking raw material for processing it is also a procurement opportunity.
Rock bottom at the source, four to five times at retail
According to local newspaper reporting, the price gap between source and retail is large regardless of the item. Avocado "034" is 7,000-10,000 dong at the source versus 30,000-40,000 dong at retail, and chom chom (rambutan) is 6,000-7,000 dong at the source versus 15,000-35,000 dong at retail. Thai-variety durian falls to 4,000-5,000 dong per kg bought from farmers, while good product is 85,000-91,000 dong at wholesale, with multi-layered margins at the distribution stage creating the price gap.
| Items | Source price (VND/kg) | Retail price (VND/kg) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mango | 6,000〜10,000 | 25,000〜30,000 | About 4–5 times |
| Avocado 034 | 7,000〜10,000 | 30,000〜40,000 | About 3–5 times |
| Chom chom (rambutan) | 6,000〜7,000 | 15,000〜35,000 | About two to three times |
| Dragon fruit (white) | 4,000〜7,000 | Around 18,000 | About 3–4 times |
| Sapodilla | 5,000〜7,000 | — | — |
Why prices collapsed now
There are three main causes. First, the May-August harvest peak brings many items to market at once. Second, good weather pushed overall production higher than expected. Third, China's "Order 280," effective June 1, tightened export requirements and stalled shipments to China. The share that lost its export outlet flowed into the domestic market, spurring oversupply. Experts point out that "developing processed products that can be supplied year-round is the key to easing the short-term concentrated pressure of fresh sales."
Actual conditions at Ho Chi Minh City wholesale markets
In Ho Chi Minh City, the Thu Duc wholesale market handles 2,300 tonnes a day, of which about 600 tonnes is fruit. Levels are around 18,000 dong for dragon fruit, 60,000 dong for mangosteen (80,000 dong a year earlier), 25,000 dong for pomelo and 12,000 dong for watermelon. From merchants come voices that "there is plenty of product but few customers" and "even cutting prices does not move volume," with chom chom (rambutan) sales falling from the usual 150-200 kg/day to 50-70 kg/day, and avocado also sluggish at about 30% down year on year.
Implications for Japanese buyers
A phase in which source prices hit bottom can be a timing to stock up on raw material for processing such as dried fruit, frozen products and juice. Lots blocked from going to China, including good-quality ones, tend to be redirected to the domestic or alternative markets, widening the room for the Japanese side to negotiate procurement prices. If the aim is stable supply not tossed around by the fresh spot market, now, with source oversupply, is a good chance to firm up annual contracts and purchase terms with processing subcontractors and cooperatives. At the same time, because the registration and inspection requirements that come with "Order 280" determine whether exports are possible, confirming the regulatory-compliance status of the target items is indispensable.
Recommended related reading:
-Mekong durian farmers sell on the roadside at below cost—cadmium detection the trigger
-China's GACC Decree No. 280 takes effect June 1: prior-registration obligation for 2,589 items
-Vietnamese retailers accelerate the lock-in of local farm produce—sourcing VietGAP and OCOP directly from cooperatives
