In the Mekong Delta of southern Vietnam, durian farmers are being forced to ship at prices below cost. The trigger was that cadmium was detected in exports to China, inspections were tightened, and purchasing stalled. The wholesale price of the main variety, Ri6, 20,000–30,000 dong per kg (about 120–180 yen) has fallen to that, reaching a level below the production cost of about 33,000 dong (about 200 yen). Farmers have had their contracts broken and are left selling their harvest on the roadside.
Less than a third of the Lunar New Year level; Ri6 down to 20,000–30,000 dong wholesale
According to Vietnamese media reports, purchase prices have plunged in Dong Thap province and Can Tho. The Ri6 variety, which was about 90,000 dong at Lunar New Year (Tet), has now fallen to 20,000–30,000 dong wholesale. The Monthong variety has also retreated from its earlier 110,000 dong to 70,000–80,000 dong. Even roadside retail stays at 30,000–50,000 dong, and farmers who cannot cover production costs are emerging one after another.
The structure of the price decline — price table
| Category | Before | Now | Yen conversion (now) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ri6 (wholesale) | about 90,000 dong (at Tet) | 20,000–30,000 dong | about 120–180 yen |
| Monthong (wholesale) | 110,000 dong | 70,000–80,000 dong | about 420–480 yen |
| Roadside retail | — | 30,000–50,000 dong | about 180–300 yen |
| Production cost | — | about 33,000 dong | about 200 yen |
* Yen conversions are reference values calculated at 1,000 dong ≈ 6 yen.
The export stagnation brought on by cadmium detection
The direct trigger of the decline was that cadmium was detected in several lots bound for China. In response to warnings from the Chinese side, pre-shipment inspection was tightened, and lab failures came one after another. It is also pointed out that the practice of middlemen mixing lots from multiple farmers into one load makes it hard to identify the cause in pre-shipment inspection. The structure of heavy dependence on the Chinese market passed the impact of the tightened inspection straight through to prices.
The rapid expansion of planted area behind it
Dong Thap province has 32,000 ha of growing area, of which about 22,000 ha have entered the fruiting stage, producing over 500,000 tonnes a year. In May and June alone, 110,000 tonnes were expected to be harvested. Can Tho also holds about 13,000 ha and about 95,000 tonnes a year. Nationwide, planting has exceeded 150,000 ha, in effect doubling the 2030 plan target ahead of schedule as of 2025. The structure in which area alone expanded while quality standardization failed to keep up invited oversupply and a price collapse.
Implications for Japanese buyers and distributors
For distributors and buyers considering procurement of Vietnamese durian, the risk of choosing a growing area on cheap price alone has come into sharp relief. Whether you can steadily secure lots that can clear residue testing, and whether you can trade with orchards and codes that have traceability in place, becomes the dividing line of whether to procure. Mixed lots routed through middlemen carry high inspection risk, and the value of a supply network whose history can be traced at the orchard level is rising in relative terms.
Summary
A quality problem, the detection of cadmium, surfaced the structural weaknesses of excess area and dependence on China all at once. Whether Vietnamese fruit can shift from volume to quality — durian is the touchstone of that. The buildup of traceability and inspection systems will separate success from failure in the next export season.
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