Vietnamese lychee in 2026 was hit by a record poor harvest, yet purchase prices set a new all-time high. A warm winter and prolonged rain disrupted flower-bud formation, and the early harvest was down 35–50% from the previous year. Meanwhile, the farmgate purchase price reached an all-time high of 50,000–95,000 dong per kg (about 300–570 yen). In early June the first-ever export to the US was realized, and on US shelves about 780,000 dong per kg (US$14–15 per pound) it was displayed as a premium item.
Output halved from the previous year, hit directly by a warm winter
Lychee in 2026 covers about 55,000 ha of growing area nationwide, but the early harvest came in at 85,000–90,000 tonnes, down 35–50% from the previous year. The Bac Ninh area produced about 95,000 tonnes (59.5% of its target, a sharp drop from 215,000 tonnes in 2025), and the Hai Phong area also fell below the previous year at about 55,000 tonnes. The causes were a warm winter, with temperatures running 0.5–1°C above the historical average, and prolonged rain and fog from late February through March that hindered flower-bud differentiation, flowering and fruit set.
Purchase at 95,000 dong, US at 780,000 dong — price table
| Category | Price | Yen conversion |
|---|---|---|
| Farmgate purchase (orchard) | 50,000–95,000 dong/kg (all-time high) | about 300–570 yen |
| Early-season retail | 140,000–180,000 dong/kg | about 840–1,080 yen |
| High-quality, air-freighted | 195,000–210,000 dong/kg | about 1,170–1,260 yen |
| US retail | about 780,000 dong/kg (US$14–15 per pound) | about 4,700 yen |
* Yen conversions are reference values calculated at 1,000 dong ≈ 6 yen and US$1 ≈ 155 yen.
Exports to the US get going, with a first shipment to Houston
In early June 2026, the first two lots of fresh Vietnamese lychee (about 2 tonnes) were exported to Houston, Texas, in the US. Air transport preserved their color, flavor and quality, drawing interest from local supermarkets, Asian markets and consumers. Ameii plans to export about 1,000 tonnes of fresh lychee this season to the US, Australia, Japan, France and elsewhere. Bac Giang lychee was displayed at some US supermarkets at a price of US$14–15 per pound (about 780,000 dong/kg).
The structure in which a poor harvest and high prices occur together
Prices rise despite the poor harvest because, even as supply is squeezed, demand for high-quality lots is strong both at home and abroad. China's main growing areas (Guangdong and Hainan) also saw reduced flowering from a warm winter and rainfall, compounded by a cyclical drop in output. With supply thinning worldwide, the scarcity of exportable high-quality lychee is pushing prices up.
Implications for Japanese buyers and distributors
High-quality lychee air-freighted to the US, Australia and Japan even under a poor harvest is expensive, but it is likely to come with a solid quality record. The thinner the supply in a given year, the more directly a relationship with a growing area or export company that can ship reliably bears on the stability of procurement. A company like Ameii, with a track record of shipping to multiple advanced-country markets, becomes a strong candidate for procurement to Japan as well.
Summary
The 2026 lychee market, where a poor harvest and a record high coexist, reflects the phase in which Vietnamese fruit is shifting from volume to added value. With exports to the US underway, high-quality lychee is spreading overseas as a premium product. As climate change shakes output, growing areas and companies that command quality and sales channels are gaining presence.
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