In Bac Giang province, northern Vietnam's largest lychee region, the 2026 yield is now projected to come in at about 60% of the planned figure. High temperatures and insufficient cold during the flowering period kept flower-bud differentiation from progressing, and production falls to about 95,000 tonnes. The trading price of early lychee hit an all-time high of up to 120,000 dong (about 720 yen)/kg, and a shrinking of export volume is also unavoidable. For Japanese buyers too, a rise in procurement prices has taken on reality.
60% of plan: Bac Giang lychee sees a major production drop
According to Bac Giang province's announcement, the 2026-season lychee yield outlook is about 95,000 tonnes, coming in at roughly 60% of the original plan. The cause is the weather conditions during the flowering and flower-bud differentiation period: high temperatures persisted and the cold period was short, so flower-bud formation was insufficient. Compounded by the rebound from the previous year's bumper harvest, the growing region faces harsh numbers.
Early-season early lychee is expected to exceed 40,000 tonnes on a planted area of 8,200 hectares, but it is not enough to make up for the overall drop. Early lychee is harvested in earnest from May 25, and the mainstay varieties from around June 10. For the state of growing regions where harvesting has already begun, Bac Giang lychee harvest begins May 25 is also reported in that article.
Background: a chain of erratic weather and a price surge
Lychee is a fruit tree that needs a certain amount of cold for flower-bud differentiation, and a warm winter directly causes lower yields. In 2026, winter cold was weak across the north, and flowering itself was uneven. As a result, the volume on the market was squeezed, and prices jumped from the start. Nominated buying concentrates on high-quality lots grown to VietGAP standards, pushing prices up a further notch.
Bac Giang province assumes about 60% of production for the domestic market and about 40% for export, but if the total falls, the amount going to export shrinks too. With the poor harvest coming just as it had been strengthening exports to China, Japan, the EU, and the US, the growing region is struggling with the balance of volume and price.
The 2026 lychee market in data (yen conversion)
| Item | 2026 | Yen conversion (1 VND ≈ 0.006 yen) |
|---|---|---|
| Yield outlook | about 95,000 tonnes (60% of plan) | — |
| Early-lychee planted area | 8,200 ha, over 40,000 tonnes | — |
| Early-lychee high price | 120,000 dong/kg | about 720 yen/kg |
| Supermarket shelf price | 50,000 to 60,000 dong/kg | about 300 to 360 yen/kg |
| Domestic/export ratio | about 60% / 40% | — |
Local reaction
From growers in the region leak dejected voices: "There are orchards where almost no flowers set. We can't even harvest half of a normal year." On the other hand, farmers who kept up quality are upbeat: "VietGAP-orchard lychee sells on nomination. The volume is small, but we're covering it with the unit price." Wholesalers keep up a cautious stance: "This price from the start is beyond our experience. The spare capacity to send to export is hard to read."
Impact on Japanese buyers and agriculture stakeholders
Lychee for Japan is limited in quantity, and because the growing-region price itself is rising, an overshoot in import costs is hard to avoid. In a phase where securing fresh is difficult, it is worth considering a switch to frozen lychee or processed goods early. Procurement staff want to assemble diversified sourcing across multiple growing regions and multiple forms while judging how far the early-season high prices will settle once the mainstay varieties come onto the market.
Ripple effects on the industry
The poor lychee harvest also exerts a psychological influence on the prices of other fruit trees produced in the same north. The more export-dependent an item, the more the growing region's vulnerability to weather risk is newly felt. The expansion of GlobalGAP-certified orchards that Bac Giang province has been advancing functions as insurance to secure high-unit-price markets even in a year of lower volume, and the importance of certified cultivation is rising a further notch.
Practical information
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Main growing regions | Bac Giang province (north) |
| Early harvest | From May 25 |
| Mainstay harvest | From around June 10 |
| Main export destinations | China, Japan, EU, US |
| Notable certifications | VietGAP, GlobalGAP |
Summary
Bac Giang's 2026 lychee harvest came in poor at 60% of plan, with early lychee hitting an all-time high of 120,000 dong/kg. The main cause is poor flower-bud differentiation due to a warm winter, and a shrinking of the amount going to export is also expected. Japanese buyers are called on to review their sourcing plans, including frozen and processed forms, on the premise of high fresh prices and short quantity.
Source: Produce Report
