The Vietnamese government places its 2026 export target at US$546–551 billion (about ¥80 trillion, estimated at US$1 ≈ ¥148). It built up to US$319.7 billion in January–July (up 21.7% year on year), but by calculation it must earn an additional US$227–231 billion over the remaining five months, and Nguyen Anh Son, director of the Foreign Trade Agency, described the pressure of the remaining months as 'extremely high.' Seafood's July growth slowed to under 5%, and on top of this comes the U.S. Section 301 tariff. Vietnamese shrimp is charged 12.5%, putting it 2.5 points worse off than the 10% on Ecuador, India, and Indonesia.
This 2.5 points gives a push to moves that lower dependence on the U.S. and redirect supply toward Japan and the CPTPP bloc. For Japanese shrimp and seafood buyers, it is a moment in which the Vietnamese side has reason to seek 'buyers other than the U.S.' This article checks, with figures, where that sourcing room lies.
The gap between 12.5% and 10% on the U.S. market shaves shrimp's thin margins
The meaning of the tariff gap becomes concrete once you account for how thin shrimp export margins are. Processed frozen-shrimp exports are swayed by yield, freight, and feed prices, and an add-on of a few points can flip the bottom line. The structure in which only Vietnam faces 12.5% for the U.S. while competitors face 10% pushes Vietnamese product to the back row when prices line up on the same shelf.
That said, the competing countries are not unscathed either. India carries a heavy burden of 58.26% from the combination of countervailing duty, anti-dumping, and safeguard measures, and Indonesia saw a run of containers sent back over technical problems. Ecuador, while its countervailing duty is low, ships mainly whole shell-on and finds it hard to grow share in highly processed products. Vietnam's processed shrimp holds a relative strength in this gap.
What must not be overlooked here is that the 12.5% is charged only on exports to the U.S. This tariff does not apply to shipments to Japan, the CPTPP bloc, or the EU. A 2.5-point disadvantage in the single market of the U.S. does not directly impair price competitiveness in markets other than the U.S. Rather, the volume that became hard to earn in the U.S. flows into sales channels free of tariffs. What Japanese buyers should watch is not a 'Vietnam weakened by tariffs' but the shift in supply — where the processed shrimp pushed out of the U.S. heads.
Even with first-half shrimp at US$2.3 billion, a sign of slowdown appeared in July
Let us organize the supporting figures. Vietnam's shrimp exports in the first half of 2026 were US$2.3 billion (about ¥340 billion), up 13.6% year on year, making up 40.5% of all seafood at US$5.8 billion. June alone was US$450 million (about ¥66 billion), up 20.7%, with momentum. But entering July, the growth of total seafood exports fell to under 5%, and a yellow light came on for the full-year optimistic scenario of US$12.5 billion set out by VASEP (the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers).
| Item | Figures (approximate yen) | Year on year |
|---|---|---|
| First-half shrimp exports | US$2.3 billion (about ¥340 billion) | +13.6% |
| Shrimp exports in June alone | US$450 million (about ¥66 billion) | +20.7% |
| First half, all seafood | US$5.8 billion (about ¥860 billion) | — |
| July, growth of seafood exports | under 5% | — |
| Full-year target (VASEP optimistic figure) | US$12.5 billion (about ¥1.85 trillion) | — |
Exchange rates estimated at US$1 ≈ ¥148. Shrimp and seafood figures are values reported by various outlets from VASEP's announcements.
The reason the ground braces even with a high growth rate is that the first-half figures may include front-loaded shipments to the U.S. Once the 12.5% starts to bite from August on, growth to the U.S. is apt to run out of breath. To balance the export-target books, seafood companies look for markets that will absorb volume in place of the U.S.
Where U.S. dependence is lowered, growth goes to China, Japan, and the CPTPP bloc
The foremost destination for redirection is China. Already, the picture in which China overtakes the U.S. as the largest market for Vietnamese seafood, with Japan moving in third place is in place. China absorbs large lots of live and frozen product, but it is price-led and the margins are thin. Here the positioning of Japan changes. Because Japan buys highly processed shrimp — peeled, skewered, pre-seasoned — at levels close to list price, it meshes with the Vietnamese side's aim of earning through processing.
The supply side's capacity is coming together too. Minh Phu, the largest shrimp company, is building up processing capacity at a new plant in Ca Mau Province. Unlike Ecuador, which ships mainly whole, Vietnam can carry out primary processing within the plant. As a receptacle for the processed shrimp left over from the U.S. tariff, the conditions align for inquiries from Japanese mass retail, foodservice, and OEM to mesh.
The room Japanese shrimp buyers can go after in negotiations right now
The point of contact with the Japanese market is here. In a phase where the Vietnamese side moves volume to avoid the U.S. 12.5%, the buyer's bargaining power rises temporarily. On annual-contract unit prices, minimum lots, and the shaping of processing specifications, there is a chance to draw out terms bolder than usual. Because tariffs swing with policy, however, jumping in on unit price alone is risky. Where the Japanese trade flow truly works is in the design of specifications and proof, not price. Already, a stage where Japanese and Vietnamese seafood circulate raw material to each other has been entered, and the relationship is moving from one-sided buying to joint processing design.
The axes to check in negotiation can be narrowed to three. First, the degree of processing: confirm, by step, whether peeling and seasoning are finished within the plant. Second, certification and traceability: secure in writing the presence of ASC or BAP and records that can be traced back to the farming pond. Third, stable supply: judge whether the counterpart merely diverts U.S.-bound surplus temporarily or sets Japan as a steady sales channel.
This judgment matters because the redirection of supply tends to be short-lived. The U.S. tariff could come down with future negotiations or an administration's decision. When it does, a counterpart that saw Japan only as 'a refuge while the U.S. is closed' will return volume to the higher-priced U.S. Conversely, a counterpart that reorganized its production plan to fit Japanese standards will stay. That is why, in the first negotiation, reading where the counterpart places the Japanese market from the actual state of its processes and investment works longer than the unit price in front of you. Whether the plant brings its frozen and chilled temperature ranges, packaging forms, and the granularity of its lead times in line with Japanese requirements becomes the touchstone.
Checkpoints to secure in sourcing practice
- Assume the tariff gap varies with policy, and set unit prices not over multiple years but with a short-term review clause
- Narrowing to highly processed items (peeled, skewered, pre-seasoned) secures a space that does not compete head-on with the whole-shipment Ecuador camp
- Obtain ASC/BAP certification and per-pond records before contracting, and check in advance whether they pass the requirements of Japanese mass retail and foodservice
- Issue inquiries separately to majors with processing capacity, such as Minh Phu, and to mid-sized players in Ca Mau and Can Tho, to build a two-track supply
- Factor in the chance that prices ease from autumn on, once the U.S. front-loading runs its course, and place orders in quarterly volume increments
Striking the gap in Vietnamese shrimp sourcing opened by the U.S. tariff
Vietnamese shrimp grew to US$2.3 billion in the first half, but the U.S. 12.5% that begins to bite in August saps the momentum toward the U.S., and part of the supply heads for China, Japan, and the CPTPP bloc. The point for Japanese buyers is not to wait for prices to fall but to take the advantage in specifications by setting the degree of processing and certification as conditions. First, send inquiries to both a Minh Phu-class major and mid-sized plants asking for spec sheets for peeled and seasoned shrimp and for ASC/BAP documentation, and have the skeleton of two-company purchasing in place before the autumn price phase.
