According to data released by Vietnam's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, rice exports from January 1 to March 15, 2026 reached about 1.74 million tonnes, worth US$826.2 million. While volume held firm with a 2.3% year-on-year increase, value fell 8.7%, and the average export price dropped sharply to US$477.6/tonne, down 10.7% from a year earlier. This once again highlights the structural challenge facing Vietnam's rice exports: revenue falling even as volume rises.
Through 2023 and 2024, Vietnam benefited from India's rice export ban, with export prices surging and its market presence rising sharply. However, since the latter half of 2025, India's easing of export restrictions has increased supply pressure in the international rice market, and downward pressure on prices has continued. The first-quarter 2026 figures took the full brunt of this fallout.
Trends among major importers—the Philippines, China and Ghana
In the first quarter of 2026, the Philippines remained the top importer, followed by China and then Ghana. The Philippines has long been Vietnam's largest customer, and stable demand continues thanks to geographical proximity and trust in quality.
Exports to China tend to fluctuate greatly from year to year, but the first quarter of 2026 showed a certain level of import demand. Because China adjusts its import volumes substantially depending on its own production trends and stockpile levels, in some respects it is hard to call it a stable market for Vietnam.
The African market, including Ghana, is a region that has drawn growing attention for Vietnam in recent years. Rice consumption across Africa is on an upward trend, and Vietnam is strengthening ties with African countries in the context of diversifying its export destinations. However, the transport-cost issue discussed below cannot be ignored, as it is affecting the profitability of exports to Africa.
Rising transport costs from the Middle East situation—a double blow
On top of the price decline, rising transport costs are hurting Vietnam's rice exporters. Instability in the Middle East has heightened the risk to sea routes passing through the Suez Canal, and shipping insurance premiums have risen sharply. Moreover, due to security problems around the Red Sea, many shipping companies have changed their routes, and in some cases this has extended transit times by 10 to 15 days.
Shipping delays are not merely a matter of extra days. They directly affect exporters' cash flow and reliability—making it harder to meet contractual delivery dates, raising the cost of quality control during transit, and delaying the recovery of funds.
Inland transport costs have also risen, with reported increases of 20,000 to 30,000 Vietnamese dong (equivalent to about 100 to 150 yen) per tonne. Rice is a low-margin, high-volume business, and such cost increases hit profit margins directly. A situation continues in which volume rises but the revenue left in hand shrinks, and the business environment for exporters is growing tougher.
The gap between 2026 export targets and reality
The Vietnamese government's rice export target for 2026 is about 7 million tonnes. Given that first-quarter (January 1 to March 15) results came to 1.74 million tonnes, the pace puts the annual target within reach. On the volume side there appears to be no problem, but the challenge lies in "at what price it can be sold."
Assuming the current average export price of US$477.6/tonne continues, even exporting 7 million tonnes would bring the value to only about US$3.34 billion. Compared with 2024's export value (over US$531 million for about 8 million tonnes), this means the decline in price levels is large. The government needs to pursue not only volume targets but also higher added value and a price recovery at the same time, yet achieving this is not easy while a sense of oversupply persists in the international market.
Market diversification is urgent—expanding into emerging markets
In response to this situation, Vietnam's Ministry of Agriculture and exporter groups have positioned the development of new markets as their top priority. Current export destinations are heavily dependent on Asia (the Philippines, China, Indonesia, etc.), concentrating the risk of demand fluctuation.
The following regions are cited as new priority markets.
- All of Africa: Rice consumption is rising with population growth and urbanization. Expanded exports to Ethiopia, Nigeria, Cote d'Ivoire and others are expected. Although there is the issue of shipping distance, with fewer competitors it is easier to maintain bargaining power on price.
- The Middle East and Gulf states: With a large population that eats rice as a staple, there is stable demand. However, the issue of shipping risk remains a challenge.
- Europe: There is demand for premium varieties (especially organic rice and geographical indication (GI)-certified rice). It is a market suited to value-added exports.
- Latin America: Centered on Brazil and Mexico, there is demand from Japanese and Vietnamese communities, as well as rising interest in Asian food culture in the general market.
Market diversification takes time and investment. There are many hurdles to clear, including gaining recognition in new markets, building relationships with buyers, and meeting quality standards. But without reducing dependence on specific markets, it is difficult to build resilience against price-fluctuation risk.
Variety strategy—shifting to value-added rice
Another approach to breaking out of price competition is a shift to high-value varieties. In recent years, Vietnam has been focusing on exporting high-quality varieties, led by ST25 rice (a multiple winner of the World's Best Rice award).
The export price of high-value rice is often 1.5 to 2 times or more that of standard varieties, so revenue can be increased substantially even at the same volume. Interest in high-quality Vietnamese rice is rising in markets such as Japan, South Korea and Europe, and a shift in export strategy from "cheap and plentiful" to "chosen for quality and safety" will strengthen competitiveness over the medium to long term.
In addition, Vietnam's vegetable and fruit exports surged in the first quarter of 2026 Viewed together with this trend, it can be seen that a shift "from quantity to quality" is being promoted across Vietnam's agricultural products by both the public and private sectors. Rice, too, is being called on to build its strategy in the same direction.
Implications for Japanese companies and buyers
The fall in Vietnam's rice export prices and the move toward market diversification offer several implications for Japanese food importers, trading houses and retailers as well.
First, the procurement cost of Vietnamese rice is currently at a relatively low level. As an opportunity to secure high-quality varieties (such as ST25) on a stable basis in particular, the present period is also a favorable negotiating environment for buyers. However, rising transport costs and delay risks need to be factored into cost estimates.
Also, in the context of Vietnam rushing to develop new markets, the Japanese market is in a relatively attractive position as a "destination for premium rice." Vietnam's Ministry of Agriculture and export-promotion agencies have a strong interest in exports to Japan, making this an appropriate time for the import side to initiate partnerships.
Summary—the reality of Vietnamese rice that volume alone cannot tell
Vietnam's rice exports in the first quarter of 2026 face the harsh reality of a sharp price decline, in contrast to the growth in volume. The figures of 1.74 million tonnes and US$826.2 million fall well below the previous year in value terms, and exporters' earnings environment has deteriorated.
Amid a triple challenge of rising transport costs and delivery delays from the Middle East situation, a sense of oversupply in the international market, and dependence on major markets, the strategy Vietnam can take is clear—diversifying markets and raising the added value of its varieties. How to recover unit prices while meeting the annual export target of 7 million tonnes has become the biggest challenge for Vietnam's rice exports in 2026.
