Vietnamese dragon fruit has reversed from May's fire-sale phase and is regaining value. As VnExpress reported on August 3, 2026, prolonged rain depressed the harvest, and the farm-gate price doubled from May to rise to VND 15,000 per kilo (about 90 yen). In Lam Dong, a region for the red-flesh variety, it trades at VND 20,000 (about 120 yen). Farmers who were selling at a loss in May are now said to be earning a profit of VND 3,000–4,000 per kilo (about 18–24 yen).
The precariousness of this market lies in the fact that the main cause of the price rise is not a bumper crop but reduced output. For farm-product buyers and importers, it is not merely "expensive or cheap" but the very swing in supply that becomes a risk for procurement planning. We organize, going as far as what Japanese food businesses should confirm in the current phase. (Exchange roughly estimated at about 60 yen per VND 10,000 and about 150 yen per US dollar, as of August 2026)
Doubling to VND 15,000 per kilo; from a loss in May to a profit of VND 3,000–4,000 per kilo
First, we list only the figures that can be backed by primary sources. The farm-gate price doubled from May—white-flesh at VND 15,000 (about 90 yen) and Lam Dong red-flesh at VND 20,000 (about 120 yen). Retail also doubled from May, at VND 25,000 (about 150 yen) for ordinary dragon fruit and VND 40,000 (about 240 yen) for the red-flesh variety.
| Category | Price (VND/kg) | Yen equivalent (approximate) |
|---|---|---|
| Farm-gate, white-flesh | 15,000 | About 90 yen |
| Farm-gate, red-flesh (Lam Dong) | 20,000 | About 120 yen |
| Retail, ordinary | 25,000 | About 150 yen |
| Retail, red-flesh | 40,000 | About 240 yen |
| Farmer's take-home profit | 3,000〜4,000 | About 18–24 yen |
Noteworthy is how thin the profit is. The take-home per kilo is VND 3,000–4,000, only around 20 yen in yen terms. The fact that it only just escaped a loss once the market doubled confirms that the normal farm-gate price had been running right at the edge of production cost. It is not the simple picture of "profiting because the price rose."
Rain cuts yield by 10%; Lam Dong, into which former Binh Thuan was consolidated, is the epicenter
The direct trigger of the reduced output is the weather. Xuan, a collector in Lam Dong, says, "Heavy rain cut the yield by 10% from the previous year, while demand held firm." If supply thins and demand does not move, it stands to reason that prices jump.
A note on place names is needed here. The article treats the Binh Thuan Dragon Fruit Association as a Lam Dong organization, but this is due to the reorganization of administrative divisions. On July 1, 2025, the three provinces of Lam Dong, Binh Thuan, and Dak Nong were merged into a new Lam Dong Province. Binh Thuan, which had been Vietnam's largest dragon-fruit region, is now tallied as part of Lam Dong Province. When managing region information on the Japanese side, it is worth bearing in mind that this is a transition period in which old and new names are mixed.
Behind the weather factor, a more structural change is also underway. The association's chairman, Canh, points out that "after a long slump in prices, many farmers switched to other crops, so output itself has fallen over the past few years." The move of aging fields being replanted with passion fruit and the like is covered on this outlet too, in Lam Dong's crop-conversion case. It is natural to read the current high price as the result of a one-off weather shock coinciding with a years-long contraction in planting.
First-half exports down 3% at US$280 million; a tightrope walk from 60% dependence on China
What is firming up the market's footing is also the export trend. First-half dragon-fruit exports were US$280 million, down 3% year on year. Chairman Canh also said that "the weather reduced supply for export," and the rise in domestic prices and the decline in export volume are happening at the same time.
This figure is partway down a longer downhill slope. According to Produce Report, exports for January–November 2025 were US$485 million, the lowest level since 2014. From the peak of about US$1.3 billion in 2018, it has shrunk to under 40%. The largest destination is still China, which accounted for US$302 million and a 62.2% share in January–November 2025, down 4.5% year on year. It reflects China expanding its own production to a scale of 1.6 million tonnes a year and squeezing import demand itself.
On the other hand, there are bright signs too: market diversification. As this outlet reported, early 2026 saw exports to Thailand roughly 2.7 times higher and to the UAE up 57%, with channels outside China growing. As weather-driven reduced output thins export capacity, how to allocate the limited supply to new markets that break free of dependence on China becomes the region's immediate challenge.
Three things Japanese sourcing managers should confirm in the current high-price phase
From here is the implication for Japanese food businesses. Dragon fruit is one of the few Vietnamese fresh fruits approved for export to Japan—opened in 2009, and still about 1,000 tonnes a year enter Japan. The background of the item is An explainer on the regions, season, and varieties of Vietnamese dragon fruit, but the points to grasp in a market-volatility phase like this are mainly three.
First, the premise that the price "floor" is below cost. If the structure is one in which farmers only just turn a profit at around 20 yen per kilo, the normal low price is not sustainable. If fixing the price in a long-term contract, locking it in at a level that factors in production cost—rather than at a fire-sale level—leads to supply stability.
Second, the seasonality of weather risk. This reduced output was triggered by prolonged rain. Southern Vietnam's rainy season usually falls roughly from May to October, a period when yield and quality tend to swing. By designing separately—a sourcing slot that avoids the rainy season and alternative regions or items for the rainy season—overlaid on Japan's demand period, you are less likely to get caught in a surge in unit prices.
Third, the scramble for the red-flesh variety. The growth in exports is led by processing demand in Thailand, the UAE, and the Middle East, and the higher-priced red-flesh variety draws stronger interest. Whether as fresh fruit, powder, or dried, if you want to source the red-flesh variety stably, it is worth getting ahead of other companies in building direct relationships with the region.
Toward sourcing that manages the "swing," not the market level
This doubling is not the surplus of a bumper crop but the flip side of reduced output. Farmers' take-home stays at around 20 yen per kilo, exports are down 3%, and the largest market, China, is squeezing demand through its own production expansion. The very size of the price swings has become a risk for both the region and the import side.
The realistic solution for Japanese food businesses is not market-following—buying when cheap and passing when expensive. At a price band that accounts for production cost, combine a slot that factors in the rainy season with alternative regions, and lock in the red-flesh variety with the region early. Precisely because it is a crop whose farm-gate price doubles on a single spell of prolonged rain, a sourcing design that manages the swing in supply, not the ups and downs of price, is what is called for. For an overview of the item as a whole, see the dragon fruit item page as well.
