Coffee exports from Vietnam, the world's largest Robusta producer, are holding firm at the start of 2026 as well. January-February export volume was 366,000 tonnes (up 14% year on year), maintaining double-digit growth. The domestic price of Robusta green beans is stable in a high range of 87,000-88,000 dong/kg (about 512-518 yen/kg at 170 VND = 1 JPY), having calmed from the record 120,000 dong/kg at the end of 2025 but still far above the pre-2024 level of 50,000 dong/kg. On the global supply side, the disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026 has pushed ICE futures Robusta stocks to a 16-month low, and a pattern in which geopolitical risk underpins prices continues.
News details
Vietnam's coffee production for 2025/26 (October to the following September) is projected at 30.8 million bags (60 kg per bag, about 1.848 million tonnes), up 6% year on year. Its position as the world's leading Robusta supplier is unshakable, and the export data for the start of 2026 are as follows.
- Export volume (cumulative January-February 2026): 366,000 tonnes (+14% year on year)
- Domestic Robusta price: 87,000-88,000 dong/kg as of April 23, rising to 88,700 dong/kg on April 29
- Prices by region: Dak Nong 88,000 dong/kg, Dak Lak 87,800 dong/kg, Gia Lai 87,800 dong/kg, Lam Dong 87,300 dong/kg
- End-2025 peak: 120,000 dong/kg (+140% versus 2024)
There were sharp one-day rises of 1,500 dong/kg on April 24 and 1,700 dong/kg on April 29, leaving farmers wavering over when to sell. Many farmers are holding back at the current level of 87,000 dong/kg and are conserving their seasonal stocks on hand.
Background: a supply crunch from "Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption x low ICE stocks"
Since late February 2026, shipping functions in the Strait of Hormuz (between Iran and Oman, a strategic strait through which more than 20% of the world's oil supply passes) have been heavily constrained. Following US and Israeli military action against Iran, major container lines such as Maersk, CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd temporarily suspended operations through the strait, and sea-freight costs and insurance premiums from Southeast Asia surged. In the coffee market, Robusta stocks on the London ICE futures exchange 3,755-3,838 lots (a 16-month low) have fallen to that level, and Arabica ICE stocks have also shrunk to 494,508 bags (a two-month low). This is the result of transport delays via the Middle East overlapping with last-minute securing demand from European roasters.
Vietnam's export routes center mainly on Hai Phong port (north) to Europe and Cai Mep port (south, near Ho Chi Minh City) to the Middle East and North America, and shipping disruption via the Strait of Hormuz directly affects mainly the Cai Mep-Middle East route. With shipping delays and higher insurance premiums combining, European roasters, to avoid drawing down inventory, "buying futures to secure physical supply" are moving in that direction. This supports the resilience of international Robusta prices. Note that the situation around the Strait of Hormuz is fluid, and the resumption and suspension of operations and insurance premiums shift on a weekly basis, so procurement managers need to keep checking the latest shipping releases.
Vietnam coffee price, production and stock trends
| Item | Figure | Yen conversion (170 VND = 1 JPY) |
|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 production | 30.8 million bags (about 1.848 million t) | — |
| January-February 2026 export volume | 366,000 t (+14% year on year) | — |
| Domestic Robusta price on April 23 | 87,000-88,000 dong/kg | About 512-518 yen/kg |
| April 29 peak | 88,700 dong/kg | About 522 yen/kg |
| End-2025 record high | 120,000 dong/kg | About 706 yen/kg |
| ICE Robusta stocks | 3,755-3,838 lots (16-month low) | — |
| ICE Arabica stocks | 494,508 bags (two-month low) | — |
| Main growing regions | Dak Lak, Dak Nong, Gia Lai, Lam Dong | — |
Industry and local reaction
An executive at Intimex Group, an export trading house in Buon Ma Thuot in Dak Lak (the capital of Vietnamese coffee), calmly analyzes that "shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz causes a short-term supply shock, but because Vietnam's production is on track the world's annual supply-demand balance will stay within an equilibrium range." At the same time, if farmers keep holding back, there is a scenario to watch in which domestic prices return to the 100,000 dong/kg range in the May-June lean season.
The head of a leading farming cooperative in Dak Nong (Dak Mil Coffee Cooperative) commented that "with the record highs at the end of 2025, many farmers finished repaying loans and investing in equipment, and the prevailing stance now is to wait for higher prices rather than rush to sell. Households with financial room are holding three to six months' worth of stock."Lam Dong province's VietGAP/organic support ordinance has taken effect, and specialty coffee from certified farmers trades at a premium of 15-25% over standard product, accelerating a rush to obtain certification.
From the European roasting industry comes the assessment that "Vietnamese Robusta continues to function as a stable supply source for the world as a whole and is absorbing substitute demand from the surge in Arabica prices." Meanwhile, in Japan's specialty coffee industry, there are voices saying that "the quality improvement of Vietnamese Arabica (especially from the Cau Dat area of Lam Dong province) is striking, and trading-house offers are reaching more widely than before."
Practical information for Japanese agriculture stakeholders and importers
For Japan's coffee trading houses, roasters and cafe chains, 2026 is a time to review procurement strategy for Vietnamese Robusta and Arabica. There are three concrete factors for the decision.
- Structural rise in Robusta prices: A return to the pre-2024 level of 50,000 dong/kg is unlikely for the time being. The new floor range is 70,000-80,000 dong/kg, and the pricing design for blend raw materials needs to be rebuilt.
- Strait of Hormuz transit risk: Sea transport via the Middle East will be unstable for the time being. The situation is fluid, and it is advisable to diversify across multiple routes, such as raising the weight of routes via Europe (Hai Phong to Rotterdam) or direct to Japan (Hai Phong/Cai Mep to Yokohama and Kobe).
- The rise of certified specialty: Arabica and organic-certified lots from the Cau Dat area of Lam Dong province are expected to grow more than 20% a year. More roasters and cafe chains are expected to put Vietnamese-origin specialty coffee on their menus.
For OEM processors (instant coffee, RTD canned coffee, coffee-jelly ingredients, etc.), stably securing Vietnamese Robusta remains essential. Three practical priorities are switching to long-term contracts (annual or three-year), diversifying sourcing across multiple regions, and a gradual shift to certified lots.
Ripple effects on the industry
The persistence of high Vietnamese coffee prices affects the entire global coffee industry. Robusta is mainly a raw material for espresso blends, instant coffee and RTD coffee drinks, and majors such as Nestle, Lavazza and Starbucks, during the price rises of 2024-2025, implemented consumer price increases in stages. This trend is expected to continue in 2026, but there are also forecasts that Brazil will see its largest-ever harvest (66-76 million bags) in 2026/27, so global supply and demand from mid-year onward could swing toward some easing.
At the farm and regional level, the benefits of record-high prices are leading to expansion of farmland and a return of younger people to farming. In Lam Dong and Dak Lak, new plantings rose 15% year on year in 2025, building up production capacity toward the harvest five to seven years out. Although the risk from climate change, drought and shifting rainfall patterns remains high, investment in irrigation infrastructure, the introduction of disease-resistant varieties and conversion to organic cultivation are advancing at the same time.
Practical information summary
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| 2025/26 production | 30.8 million bags (about 1.848 million tonnes, +6% year on year) |
| World ranking | World's number-one Robusta producer, number-two in total coffee production |
| January-February 2026 export volume | 366,000 tonnes (+14% year on year) |
| April domestic Robusta price | 87,000-88,700 dong/kg |
| End-2025 peak | 120,000 dong/kg |
| Main growing regions | Dak Lak, Dak Nong, Gia Lai, Lam Dong |
| Main export ports | Hai Phong port (north), Cai Mep port (south) |
| Main export destinations | EU, United States, Japan, Middle East |
| ICE Robusta stocks | 3,755-3,838 lots (16-month low) |
| Strait of Hormuz situation | Shipping disruption since late February 2026 continues (fluid, requires monitoring) |
Summary
The trend in Vietnamese coffee at the start of 2026 points to a new reality: "its position as the world's leading Robusta supplier is unshakable, but the price structure is in a new stage." The cumulative January-February export volume of 366,000 tonnes (+14%) and the stable domestic price of 87,000-88,000 dong/kg mean an equilibrium in a new floor range far above the pre-2024 level. While the external factors of Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption and a 16-month low in ICE stocks support the downside, the arrival of Brazil's new harvest looms as a supply-easing factor from mid-year onward. For Japan's coffee trading houses, roasters and OEM processors, it is the time to advance raw-material design premised on a structural rise in Robusta prices, diversification of Strait of Hormuz transit risk, and a gradual incorporation of certified specialty. In the main growing regions of the Central Highlands, younger people are returning to farming, organic certification is expanding and new plantings are advancing, so supply capacity five to seven years out is building up.
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