In the main coffee-growing regions of Vietnam's Central Highlands, coffee farmers are rapidly switching to durian. Behind this is a surge in durian demand in the Chinese market, and US$69,500 per hectare a year (up to five times that of coffee) the economic logic that such profit can be expected. Intimex Group chairman Do Ha Nam said, "2 billion VND per hectare a year in durian profit far exceeds that of coffee or pepper," he testified. According to MARD, durian production as of the end of September 2024 reached 984,800 tonnes, and Vietnam's very crop structure is being rewritten.
Starting data: US$69,500 per ha of durian, five times the profit of coffee
According to Nguyen Van Man, director of Tien Giang province's Department of Agriculture and Rural Development, annual income per hectare of durian is about US$69,500. Among farmers in Can Tho city in the Mekong Delta, more than US$41,000 a year in profit has also been reported. These figures were achieved by combining modern cultivation techniques with high-quality varieties (Ri6 and Monthong).
Do Ha Nam, chairman of industry leader Intimex Group, said, "2 billion VND per hectare a year (about 12 million yen) in durian profit far exceeds that of coffee or pepper. The composition of planted area in the Central Highlands will change significantly over the next five years," he analyzes.
Profit data by crop: Robusta coffee also hit by a 50% export drop
| Crop | Annual profit per ha (USD) | Main markets | 2026 trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Durian (high quality) | $41,000〜$69,500 | China (90%), Thailand, South Korea | Rapid growth / prices staying high |
| Robusta coffee | $8,000〜$14,000 | EU, United States, Japan | June 2024 exports down 50% (year on year) |
| Pepper | $10,000〜$18,000 | United States, EU, Middle East | Export volume +31% in Q1, but a double bind of falling supply and quadrupled freight costs |
| Cashew nuts | $6,000〜$12,000 | China, the United States | 20% US tariff expands China's share |
| macadamia | $15,000〜$25,000 | China, Japan, EU | Emerging, with ample room to grow |
According to International Coffee Organization (ICO) data, Robusta coffee recorded a 50% year-on-year export decline in June 2024, with the switch to durian a direct cause of the supply drop. Vietnam, having reached US$9 billion in coffee exports, faces the raw-material export trap As also pointed out there, the structural change in Vietnam's coffee industry is becoming irreversible.
Background: durian exports to China top US$3.3 billion, with high prices spurring the switch
In 2024, Vietnamese durian, in exports to China, topped US$3.3 billion and cemented its position as the world's leading durian supplier. the durian QR-code tracking system cut delivery time to six days, and the "green lane" system dramatically improved customs-clearance speed at Chinese customs.
With this infrastructure in place, farmers have become convinced of the equation "durian growing = high profit + stable exports." In Dak Lak and Lam Dong provinces in the Central Highlands, more than 70% of new plantings are durian, a phenomenon of skewing toward it is occurring.
Reactions from industry and farmers: "coffee is a loss, durian builds houses"
- "Robusta at 3,500-4,000 VND per kg has hit a ceiling, and in some years it runs at a loss once fertilizer and labor are deducted. Durian 1kg 80,000〜120,000VND is on a completely different level" (a coffee farmer in Dak Lak province)
- 「durian trees bear fruit in three years During the replanting period, farmers get by on coffee, then switch completely from the fourth year. Advanced farmers will be at full harvest in 2027" (a farming adviser in Lam Dong province)
- 「farmers who built houses, farmers who bought cars have increased in the area. A trend of deciding to switch crops after watching the neighbors continues" (a local newspaper in Tien Giang province)
- "Vietnam may lose its position as the world's number-one Robusta coffee producer. planted area may fall 30% by 2030 is a realistic scenario" (an industry analyst)
Risks: a backlash from overheated demand, climate change, and overconcentration on the Chinese market
Several risks are flagged for the rapid switch to durian. Experts' warnings are as follows.
- Overconcentration on the Chinese market: 90% of exports go to China, directly exposed to US-China relations and China's domestic economy
- Backlash from overheated demand: Durian prices more than doubled between 2024 and 2026. Thai, Malaysian and Philippine supply is also expanding, posing a risk of price correction in the near future
- Climate change: Durian is difficult to manage for water and is susceptible to saltwater intrusion and the dry season in the Mekong Delta
- Replanting cost: per hectare, an initial investment of US$5,000-8,000, with three to four years of no income until the trees bear fruit
- Pesticide residues and quality standards: China's quarantine standards are tightening, and QR-code tracking raises the risk when a problem is uncovered
Impact on the Japanese market: can the supply of Vietnamese coffee to Japan be secured?
For Japan's coffee industry, Vietnamese Robusta is a key raw material for canned coffee and blends. Majors such as Asahi Soft Drinks, Suntory and Key Coffee are already feeling the impact of surging Robusta prices, and the advance of the switch to durian is heightening long-term supply risk.
- Major beverage manufacturers: Reviewing the share of Vietnamese Robusta sourced, with diversification toward Brazilian and Indonesian product advancing
- Cafe chains: Little impact on specialty coffee for single-origin; upward price pressure on Robusta for blends
- Japanese durian demand: Imports of frozen durian and durian processed products are expanding. Vietnamese strawberry exports up 2,000-fold Drawing attention as an emerging fruit category alongside it
- Food OEM and Japanese companies: Rising number of plans for frozen desserts, gelato and sweets using Vietnamese durian
Industry ripple effects: MARD's tighter planting management and its "protect coffee" policy
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD)"to prevent a sharp drop in coffee planted area" has rolled out a policy. Specifically, three axes:
- Subsidies for converting to specialty coffee: Low-interest loans for farmers shifting from Robusta to Arabica and specialty
- Support for EUDR compliance: Support for introducing traceability systems to comply with deforestation regulations
- Scaling up like HAGL：HAGL plans the world's largest 20,000 ha coffee farm by 2028 Promoting company-led large-scale farms like this
MARD's 2026 target Agriculture, forestry and fishery exports of US$73-74 billion To achieve it, balancing durian expansion with maintaining coffee is essential.
What Japanese food OEMs and trading houses can do now
| Position | Recommended action |
|---|---|
| Major beverage manufacturers | Prepare a scenario by 2027 to diversify Robusta sourcing to Brazil and Indonesia |
| Cafe chains | Separate sourcing routes for single-origin and commercial blends |
| Food OEM | Develop sourcing routes for Vietnamese durian processed products (frozen, puree, powder) |
| Trading houses | Complete site visits to Dak Lak and Lam Dong and the development of local partners within 2026 |
| D2C brands | Plan and develop original products using Vietnamese durian (ice cream, gelato, etc.) |
Summary: Vietnamese agriculture's "durian revolution" will rewrite the structure in five years
The switch to durian by coffee farmers in Vietnam's Central Highlands has become a textbook case of individual farmers' economic logic changing a nation's export structure. It is a move with two sides: supply risk for Japan's coffee industry and opportunity for durian-related businesses, and depending on developments over the next five years, Vietnam could even rebrand from a "coffee powerhouse" to a "durian powerhouse."
As concrete next actions, Japanese companies that want to secure a stable supply of Vietnamese coffee should hurry to sign long-term contracts in the Dak Lak and Gia Lai growing regions. Food businesses that want to enter the durian space, based on dragon fruit and durian export data, would do well to carry out market analysis and site visits within 2026.
