{"id":921,"date":"2026-04-09T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-09T02:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vietnam-agri.com\/industry_news\/vietnam-pepper-q1\/"},"modified":"2026-04-09T11:39:50","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T02:39:50","slug":"vietnam-pepper-q1","status":"publish","type":"industry_news","link":"https:\/\/vietnam-agri.com\/en\/industry_news\/vietnam-pepper-q1\/","title":{"rendered":"Vietnamese pepper exports up 31% in Q1, but a double bind of falling supply and quadrupled freight costs"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Vietnamese pepper exports are doing well. Export volume in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026 was 66,350 tonnes (up 39.2% year on year) and export value US$430 million (up 31.7%), a strong rise. Yet behind these figures lurks a troubling double structural problem \u2014 a sharp drop in harvest volume and a surge in transport costs stemming from the Middle East situation.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Q1 2026 export results: the US and China lead<\/h2>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Indicator<\/th>\n<th>Q1 2026 results<\/th>\n<th>Year on year<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Export volume<\/td>\n<td>66,350 tonnes<\/td>\n<td>+39.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Export value<\/td>\n<td>US$430 million<\/td>\n<td>+31.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>March export volume<\/td>\n<td>30,638 tonnes<\/td>\n<td>+119.3% month on month<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>March export value<\/td>\n<td>US$199.3 million<\/td>\n<td>+51.3% year on year<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Black pepper average unit price<\/td>\n<td>US$6,520\/tonne<\/td>\n<td>-0.7% month on month<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>White pepper average unit price<\/td>\n<td>US$8,735\/tonne<\/td>\n<td>+1.0% month on month<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n<p>By market, the United States surged to 8,059 tonnes (up 121% month on month) and China to 3,663 tonnes (up 134.7%). Egypt, the Netherlands, Canada and the Philippines all recorded triple-digit growth rates, making a global demand recovery clear.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Problem 1: the 2026 harvest is forecast to fall 15\u201320%<\/h2>\n<p>Behind the strong exports, serious concern is spreading on the domestic supply side. The 2026 harvest forecast is 170,000\u2013180,000 tonnes, a sharp drop of 15\u201320% year on year. There are mainly two causes.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Erratic weather<\/strong>: In main production areas such as Binh Phuoc and Dak Lak provinces, disrupted rainfall patterns have hurt growth<\/li>\n<li><strong>Aging plantations<\/strong>: Many pepper plantations are over 20\u201330 years old, with both harvest volume and quality trending down<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Furthermore, crop switching by farmers is advancing. Pepper farmers are choosing to convert to more profitable durian and fruit trees, and new planting is not keeping up. The domestic wholesale price has risen to VND 140,000\u2013150,000\/kg (about \u00a5840\u2013900\/kg), squeezing exporters' margins.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Problem 2: Middle East situation triples to quadruples transport costs<\/h2>\n<p>Another problem is the surge in logistics costs. With worsening tension around the Strait of Hormuz, freight rates on major routes have jumped to three to four times normal. The Middle East accounts for about 15% of Vietnam's pepper exports, and it is also a transit point for shipments to Europe.<\/p>\n<p>Some exporters have temporarily suspended new orders, reporting that 'shipping while unable to pass on the cost increase to prices locks in a loss.' Vietnam's agricultural first-quarter 2026 data as a whole (<a href=\"https:\/\/vietnam-agri.com\/en\/industry_news\/vietnam-agri-q1-2026\/\">US$16.69 billion in agro-forestry-fishery exports<\/a>) also point out that rising logistics costs are squeezing the profitability of multiple items.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Analysis: the 'strong export figures' hide price and supply risk<\/h2>\n<p>The Q1 rise in export volume strongly reflects a 'front-loading from inventory' aspect. Exports were brought forward on the global recovery in pepper demand and expectations of price rises, but the latter half of 2026 is expected to see both price rises from supply tightness and a drop in export volume.<\/p>\n<p>According to data from the International Pepper Community (IPC), global pepper inventories were below the five-year average as of the end of 2025, and other major production areas (Indonesia, Brazil, India) will also need time to increase output. Tightening supply and demand benefits Vietnamese farmers through higher prices, while on the consuming side it is passed on in the form of higher procurement costs for processed-food makers.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Implications for Japan<\/h2>\n<p>Japan is one of the world's leading pepper importers, with high dependence on imports from Vietnam. Looking at the Q1 figures, Japan does not appear directly at the top of the export destinations, but including re-exports via the Netherlands and Hong Kong, the impact is large.<\/p>\n<p>Practical responses for food and spice makers include the following.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Consider long-term contracts and forward bookings<\/strong>: Early procurement to prepare for price-rise risk from the latter half of 2026 onward<\/li>\n<li><strong>Diversify production areas<\/strong>: Develop sourcing from Indonesian and Brazilian pepper<\/li>\n<li><strong>Direct dealing with local Vietnamese operators<\/strong>: Reconcile cutting intermediary margins with stable procurement<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Points to watch going forward<\/h2>\n<p>As the new harvest season of August\u2013October 2026 approaches, confirming plantations' actual yields becomes the biggest focus. If improved weather conditions produce a larger harvest than forecast, prices will stabilize or fall, but the aging-plantation problem is a structural issue that will not be solved in the short term. An easing of Middle East tensions could also be a trigger for normalizing transport costs, but the timing is uncertain.<\/p>\n<p>[Sources]<br \/>\n-<a href=\"https:\/\/e.vnexpress.vn\/news\/business\/economy\/pepper-exports-soar-31-in-q1-despite-supply-shipping-challenges-5059196.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">VnExpress \u2013 Pepper exports soar 31% in Q1 despite supply, shipping challenges<\/a><br \/>\n-<a href=\"https:\/\/vietnamnews.vn\/economy\/1778922\/viet-nam-s-pepper-exports-rebound-strongly-despite-supply-and-shipping-challenges.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Vietnam News \u2013 Pepper exports rebound strongly despite challenges<\/a><br \/>\n-<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vietnam.vn\/en\/kim-ngach-xuat-khau-ho-tieu-quy-i-2026-tang-hon-30\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Vietnam.vn \u2013 Pepper export turnover Q1 2026 up 30%+<\/a><\/p>\n<h2>Related Articles<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/vietnam-agri.com\/en\/industry_news\/vietnam-agri-export-q1-2026-results\/\">Vietnam's agriculture, forestry and fishery exports reach US$16.69 billion in Q1 2026<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/vietnam-agri.com\/en\/industry_news\/vietnam-fresh-produce-export-59pct-2026-traceability\/\">Vietnamese fruit and vegetable exports up 59.5% year on year<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u30d9\u30c8\u30ca\u30e0\u7523\u30b3\u30b7\u30e7\u30a6\u306eQ1 2026\u8f38\u51fa\u306f4.3\u5104\u30c9\u30eb\u306731.7%\u5897\u3002\u3057\u304b\u30572026\u5e74\u53ce\u7a6b\u91cf\u306f15\u301c20%\u6e1b\u898b\u901a\u3057\u3067\u3001\u4e2d\u6771\u60c5\u52e2\u3067\u8f38\u9001\u8cbb\u304c3\u301c4\u500d\u306b\u8df3\u306d\u4e0a\u304c\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","categories":[],"tags":[],"crop_category":[],"class_list":["post-921","industry_news","type-industry_news","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vietnam-agri.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/industry_news\/921","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vietnam-agri.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/industry_news"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vietnam-agri.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/industry_news"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vietnam-agri.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=921"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vietnam-agri.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=921"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vietnam-agri.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=921"},{"taxonomy":"crop_category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vietnam-agri.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/crop_category?post=921"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}