Vietnam has set its 2026 durian export target at about US$4 billion. It is a level above the 2025 result of US$3.85 billion, but this is not an amount already achieved\u2014it is a target the government has set out. In the background is a move to break out of a structure in which China accounts for over 90% of export destinations. In July, India opened its market to fresh durian imports, and market-opening negotiations with Australia and New Zealand continue. For the Japanese import side, it becomes a phase in which the premises of supply capacity and price negotiation shift.<\/p>\n
On July 13, 2026, India brought into effect the fifth amendment of its Phytosanitary Order and added Vietnam to the countries eligible to export fresh durian. India does not require additional quarantine declarations and imposes no special import conditions. A market with a population exceeding 1 billion and an expanding middle class has opened as a formal sales channel. With this, the export destinations for Vietnamese durian have exceeded 20 countries.<\/p>\n
The opening does not necessarily translate into large volumes from the first year. But the fact that one more major receptacle outside China has been added for an item that has depended on a single market becomes material that changes the supply side's negotiating stance.<\/p>\n
January\u2013August 2026 durian exports were about US$1.95 billion, of which exports to China were US$1.85 billion, accounting for 95% by ratio. China's demand periods and the state of quarantine and customs clearance have directly swayed the market for Vietnamese product. In the first half, there were scenes where the wholesale price within China was pushed down even as export volume grew, with volume expansion not tying to unit price\u2014the paradox of Vietnamese durian<\/a> had surfaced.<\/p>\n At the same time, China is increasing its procurement volume as the main buyer of Vietnamese durian. China purchased on the scale of US$846 million in the first half<\/a>\u2014the fact shows that the initiative over supply still rests with the Chinese side. This 95% is also the flip side of the reality that the center of price formation has not moved.<\/p>\n The US$4 billion that lines the news headlines is a target for the full year 2026, not a confirmed result. Vietnam's Ministry of Agriculture and Environment puts it at at least US$3.85 billion, on par with 2025, and around US$4 billion if it overshoots. Given the progress of accumulating US$1.95 billion in January\u2013August, it works out to adding over US$2 billion in the remaining four months, and achievement depends on the return of China's demand period and on unit prices.<\/p>\n In sourcing decisions, the premise is not to misread this target figure as a result. US$4 billion is an indicator of the appetite for supply expansion, not a guarantee that supply will circulate abundantly.<\/p>\n Following talks with Chinese authorities on August 14, 567 new cultivation-area codes were granted, and registrations exceeded 1,800 cumulatively. With fields and packing facilities eligible for export increasing institutionally, the base of eligible lots widens. Region codes are managed by destination, and the validity of a code determines whether customs clearance is possible. For Dak Lak product, region code 280 became the crux of sourcing<\/a>\u2014as this shows, the region-by-region status of code assignment becomes a premise for purchasing plans.<\/p>\n At the same time, electronic traceability went into operation from July 1. It is a mechanism that lets the history from field to packing facility be traced by code, becoming a foundation for meeting export destinations' quarantine requirements. From the buyer's side, a means of confirming a lot's origin is being developed as a system.<\/p>\n Vietnam's Ministry of Agriculture and Environment continues negotiations with Australia and New Zealand as promising markets following India. It is at the stage of seeking import licenses from New Zealand for durian and passion fruit, and from Australia for durian and cut flowers. The opening timing is undecided for both countries, and at present they are not sales channels where volume moves.<\/p>\n Even so, if negotiations advance, they become third and fourth receptacles added to China and India. The effect of diversification is of a nature that builds up as markets increase, and the trends in Australia and NZ become a clue for divining the medium-term supply structure.<\/p>\n As diversification from reliance on China alone advances, the supply that had concentrated on China during peak periods comes to circulate to other markets too. In phases where customs clearance stalled due to quarantine or inventory adjustment on the Chinese side, there were scenes where volume that lost its destination flowed to buyers outside China and unit prices softened. For the Japanese import side, there is a possibility that the room for alternative sourcing during supply shortages widens.<\/p>\n However, fresh-durian imports to Japan are a separate matter premised on Japan-Vietnam quarantine consultations, and India's opening does not directly mean the opening of fresh product for Japan. What Japanese buyers actually have contact with centers on durian as frozen and processing raw material. In this domain, since the raw-material market has moved dragged along by Chinese demand, the stabilization of the market through diversification leads to easier readability of sourcing costs.<\/p>\n Until now, Chinese demand and prices have effectively set the going rate for Vietnamese durian. When sales are confined almost entirely to China, buyers have little room to lead on price. As export destinations expand past 20 countries and large-volume Indian buyers join in, the fruit becomes less exposed to the price swings of a single market.<\/p>\n In practical buying terms, there is more room to line up quotes from several growing-area codes and packing facilities and compare conditions. The less a supplier is tied to a single demand season, the easier it becomes to negotiate free from the pull of seasonality or customs-clearance conditions. Diversification works, little by little, to loosen a state in which the seller's pricing power is one-sidedly strong.<\/p>\n The points to pin down in procurement come down to three. First, whether the target lot's growing-area code and packing-facility code are valid and included in the destination's registration. Second, whether the electronic traceability that went live in July lets you trace the history back to the field. Third, whether, when importing as a frozen or processed product, it meets Japan's acceptance conditions such as temperature band and residue standards.<\/p>\n Handling fresh fruit for Japan hinges on Japan-Vietnam quarantine negotiations, and individual conditions can only be checked case by case. Built around the three axes of growing-area code, traceability, and quarantine, the work of matching a supplier's paperwork against reality counts for more in a phase of diversification than it did before.<\/p>\n Whether it reaches the US$4 billion target depends on a rebound in Chinese demand and a recovery in unit prices. India's opening will not necessarily translate into large shipments from the first year, but multiplying the sales channels helps stabilize prices over the medium term. If Australia and New Zealand also open up, diversification advances further, and the supply structure of Vietnamese durian gradually moves away from a China-only concentration.<\/p>\n For Japanese buyers, there will be more occasions to line up quotes from multiple growing areas built around three axes: the validity of codes, whether traceability can be followed, and quarantine requirements. How far the 95% dependence on China falls becomes a yardstick for gauging procurement capacity and price-negotiating power from next season on.<\/p>\n References: Vietnam has set its 2026 durian export target at about US$4 billion. India opened up fresh durian in July, and diversification away from 95% dependence on China is advancing. Growing-area codes total more than 1,800 cumulatively, and electronic traceability has been running since July. We read the changes in supply capacity and price negotiations from the Japanese importer's point of view.<\/p>","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","categories":[85,110,22],"tags":[74,77,638,377,753],"crop_category":[],"class_list":["post-1522","industry_news","type-industry_news","status-publish","hentry","category-fruits","category-quarantine-regulation","category-export","tag-india","tag-durian","tag-638","tag-377","tag-753"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vietnam-agri.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/industry_news\/1522","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vietnam-agri.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/industry_news"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vietnam-agri.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/industry_news"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vietnam-agri.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1522"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vietnam-agri.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1522"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vietnam-agri.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1522"},{"taxonomy":"crop_category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vietnam-agri.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/crop_category?post=1522"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\"US$4 billion\" is the 2026 target; the 2025 result is US$3.85 billion<\/h2>\n
Region codes total over 1,800; electronic traceability in operation from July 1<\/h2>\n
Australia and New Zealand are at the negotiation stage; the opening timing is undetermined<\/h2>\n
The supply capacity that export diversification creates for Japanese sourcing<\/h2>\n
How looser dependence on China affects price negotiations<\/h2>\n
Quarantine conditions and growing-area codes that Japanese importers will want to verify<\/h2>\n
Outlook toward the second half of 2026<\/h2>\n
\nVietnam targets durian exports of around 4 billion USD in 2026\uff08VietnamPlus, 2026-09-03\uff09<\/a>
\nIndia officially opens market to Vietnamese fresh durian\uff08VietnamPlus\uff09<\/a>
\nIndia officially opens market to Vietnamese fresh durian\uff08VOV\uff09<\/a>
\nVi\u1ec7t Nam targets durian exports of around $4 billion in 2026\uff08Vietnam News\uff09<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"