For Vietnamese coffee, lots compliant with the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) are drawing inquiries at a price US$50 per tonne above conventional goods. It is an outlook presented by the Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association (Vicofa), which says that if buying of compliant goods advances, there is room to push export volume up 8-10%. For Japanese roasters and trading houses, a picture in which compliance with certification sways both purchase price and procurement allocation has begun to come into view.<\/p>\n
Vietnam's coffee exports in January-August 2026 reached about 1.7 million tonnes in volume and over US$6 billion in value. Volume rose 10% year on year, while value fell 11.2%. A fall in the export unit price pushed value down, and the worry common to growing areas and exporters, that the take thins even as volume grows, shows in the figures.<\/p>\n
The weight on the unit price comes from supply and demand. Global coffee supply in 2026-27 is about 189 million bags, and the consumption outlook about 179 million bags, leaving a projected supply surplus of about 10 million bags. In a phase where beans are in surplus, the market struggles to rise, and growing areas are pressed to recover their earnings through added value other than volume.<\/p>\n
According to Vicofa, 35-40% of Vietnam's coffee supply currently meets EUDR requirements. By planted area, over 30% is under the certification of sustainable-production schemes such as Rainforest Alliance and 4C. Across growing areas as a whole, the majority is still non-compliant, but compliance is advancing from the mainstay lots bound for export.<\/p>\n
On this compliant portion rides a premium of US$50 per tonne. There is also an estimate that if buying of compliant goods increases toward year-end, it will push export volume up 8-10%. Even with the overall market soft, a two-tier structure is emerging in which compliant lots alone move at separate pricing.<\/p>\n
The EUDR is a regulation that requires coffee entering the EU market to be deforestation-free, legally produced, and traceable to the farm, and it applies to large and medium-sized companies from December 30, 2026. Application to small, micro, and very small enterprises is deferred until June 30, 2027.<\/p>\n
The core of the requirements is submitting the GPS coordinates of the farm where the beans were grown and a due-diligence statement showing that no deforestation has occurred on that plot since December 31, 2020. Plots over 4 hectares are shown by a polygon, and plots of 4 hectares or less by a single point. The burden of proof weighs heavily on the production side, but only the lots that can bear that burden become subject to the premium.<\/p>\n
The EU imports roughly 40% of the world's coffee, and about 60% of that originates with smallholders of under 5 hectares. It is not unusual for beans from several hundred households to mix in a single export container. The work of tying coordinates and history to each plot one by one becomes the hardest point in this fragmented supply network.<\/p>\n
Put the other way, exporters and cooperatives that can bundle plot information and history are chosen as suppliers of compliant lots. In negotiations in Tokyo, moves have emerged in which Japanese trading houses ask about beans' history and require growing areas to present tracking data (Two Japanese companies take interest in Vietnamese coffee: the bean's history, questioned at a Tokyo meeting<\/a>). The gap between growing areas that have their history in order and those that do not will widen further from next year on.<\/p>\n Proof of deforestation-free production is not mere paperwork but steps into the design of cultivation. The effort to plant shade trees and bring forest back to coffee fields backs up the deforestation-free status that the EUDR requires and at the same time pushes up beans' quality and unit price. For Arabica in Quang Tri province, there are reports of a demonstration in which returning forest to coffee fields lifted the buying price (Returning forest to the coffee field raises the unit price: a demonstration of Quang Tri Arabica<\/a>\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n Sustainability certification and EUDR compliance are separate systems, but they share a foundation of farm-plot management, cultivation records, and the preservation of history. Growing areas that have obtained certification have the groundwork for EUDR compliance, and lots that satisfy both together move into the premium band.<\/p>\n The scramble for compliant lots is not a matter for shipments to Europe alone. China's imports of Vietnamese coffee rose 87% in five months, and phases in which the procurement allocation for Japan thins have emerged (China's imports of Vietnamese coffee up 87% in five months, squeezing Japan's sourcing allocation<\/a>). At year-end, the last-minute rush before the EUDR takes effect overlaps with China's vigorous demand, and the better-quality compliant lots tend to sell out sooner.<\/p>\n If Japanese buyers wait for arrivals in the new year before moving, there is a risk that compliant goods have already been locked up. A phase is approaching in which the decision of whether to secure an allocation even by paying the premium or to hold down the unit price with non-compliant goods is made not on the market but on the availability in the supply network.<\/p>\n Vicofa chairman Nguyen Nam Hai said, 'Vietnamese coffee has a great opportunity in the final months of the year to grow both export volume and price.' With value running below the previous year, the growing-area side's strategy of recovering its take by capturing the premium on compliant lots and year-end demand can be read.<\/p>\n The world's second-largest Robusta growing area by volume is trying to turn regulatory compliance from a mere cost into a pricing weapon. Since whether or not one complies becomes the dividing line of the export price, the faster-responding growing areas stand at an advantage in the year-end market.<\/p>\n That 35-40% of supply is compliant means the remaining 60% or so does not currently meet EUDR requirements. This non-compliant portion goes to markets outside Europe or flows to uses that need no proof. While a premium rides on compliant lots, the non-compliant goods left out look for a buyer even by lowering the price, so even for the same Vietnamese goods, the unit price polarizes according to whether or not one complies.<\/p>\n Even if Japanese buyers are in a position not directly bound by the EU regulation, this polarization becomes material for purchasing negotiations. The option of taking non-compliant lots that Europe does not require at a price discounted for the lack of history proof gains reality. But there is also a risk that lots with thin backing on quality or cultivation management mix in, so one wants to avoid a decision to jump in on price alone.<\/p>\n What is in question in Japanese practice narrows to three points. First, confirm with exporters, by the presence of plot coordinates and history, whether the Vietnamese lots you buy are EUDR-compliant. If compliant, a premium of US$50 per tonne rides on them, so grasp the basis for a price revision in advance.<\/p>\n Second, although Japan is not directly subject to the EUDR, factor in the possibility that if growing areas' mainstay lots are redirected to compliant goods for Europe, non-compliant inventory will thin. Third, split your order destinations across multiple growing areas and multiple exporters and lock in an allocation of compliant lots early. The time has come to build procurement not by watching only the ups and downs of the market but starting from where in the supply network the beans with their history in order are.<\/p>\n For Vietnamese coffee, EUDR-compliant lots trade at US$50 more per tonne. Some 35\u201340% of supply is compliant, and over 30% of the cultivated area holds sustainability certification. For Japanese roasters and buyers, we lay out the practicalities of how certification compliance ties directly to a price premium.<\/p>","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","categories":[21,111,22],"tags":[432,10,174,6,30],"crop_category":[],"class_list":["post-1516","industry_news","type-industry_news","status-publish","hentry","category-coffee","category-certification-standards","category-export","tag-eudr","tag-coffee","tag-traceability","tag-vietnam","tag-export"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vietnam-agri.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/industry_news\/1516","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vietnam-agri.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/industry_news"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vietnam-agri.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/industry_news"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vietnam-agri.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1516"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vietnam-agri.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1516"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vietnam-agri.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1516"},{"taxonomy":"crop_category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vietnam-agri.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/crop_category?post=1516"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Returning forest to coffee fields raises the unit price: implementation on the growing-area side has begun<\/h2>\n
Chinese buying thins the procurement allocation: a year-end scramble is foreseeable<\/h2>\n
Vicofa chairman: 'a chance to accelerate at year-end'; the growing areas' comeback<\/h2>\n
The non-compliant 60% looks for somewhere to go: price polarization advances<\/h2>\n
The points Japanese roasters and buyers should settle within the year<\/h2>\n
Sources<\/h2>\n
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