In durian production areas in southern Vietnam, the wholesale price of fresh fruit fell by VND 2,000\u20133,000 per kg within a few days. It is a picture in which Chinese demand passed its peak and returned to normal levels, and this season's increased output overlapped there. But reading this only as a \"price collapse\" misses the real change now underway. This very phase of cheap fresh fruit is one in which exports of processed goods such as frozen and dried are growing, and for Japanese import and sourcing managers it is also a timing when purchasing options widen. The current overall picture, with fresh fruit and processed goods moving in opposite directions, is The oversupply scene where retail prices of watermelon and Ri6 durian diverge from the region's rock-bottom prices<\/a> is also contiguous with this. This article follows the matter from the reality of prices, to the region's move to steer toward processing, and to the move the Japanese side can make.<\/p>\n Putting together the accounts of local merchants and cooperatives, the extent of the decline clearly divides by variety and grade. Tran Van Cuong, a buying merchant in Dong Nai Province, says, \"It fell by VND 2,000\u20133,000 per kg in a few days, and the bottom is not yet in sight.\" The export mainstay, Thai variety (Monthong type) grade A, went from the previous VND 70,000\u201390,000 per kg to VND 59,000\u201367,000. In yen terms, taking VND 10,000 as about 60 yen, that is a level of roughly 350\u2013400 yen\/kg.<\/p>\n The Ri6 variety, which tends to go to domestic consumption and frozen processing, is even lower. It fell to VND 34,000\u201338,000 for grade A and VND 19,000\u201322,000 for grade B, well below the same period last year. In parts of the Mekong Delta, some areas fell to a level one-third of the same period last year. Looking only at fresh fruit, the figures are harsh, but it is worth grasping that what is falling is mainly the price of the route of \"carrying it fresh to China.\"<\/p>\n There is not just one reason for the fall. First, China's last-minute demand around the Dragon Boat Festival settled down, and buying returned to normal operation. Second, domestic durian output in Vietnam rose 20\u201330% year on year, and abundant supply came together in the full season. Combined with a quality decline in southern Thai product, the market as a whole is tilting toward oversupply.<\/p>\n In addition, as Chinese customs inspections became stricter and clearance took longer, fresh fruit, for which freshness is everything, has been forced to stall. Because China still accounts for about 90% of the export destinations for Vietnamese fresh durian as the largest market, its every move directly affects region prices. Conversely, this episode has once again made visible the structure in which dependence on a single market and a single form (fresh fruit only) pushes price swings straight onto farmers.<\/p>\n While fresh fruit falls, processed goods are clearly pointing up. January\u2013March 2026 durian exports recorded about US$221.7 million, up 230% year on year, and what drove that growth was frozen durian. Lining up the average unit prices of fresh fruit and processed goods makes the difference in value clear at a glance.<\/p>\nOver 10% in a few days: the wholesale-price fall that progressed by variety<\/h2>\n
A lull in demand, increased output, and tighter inspections overlapped<\/h2>\n
In numbers: the divergence of fresh fruit and processing<\/h2>\n